The NDCF is a unique think-tank: international Objective of the conference was to explore the issues related to NATO D C F Despite scarce media attention, Afghanistan re- by design and based in Rome, due to its associa- the Afghan engagement by the international community after the mains a source of risks - and eventually oppor- tion with the NATO Defense College. Its added retreat of Allied combat units by December 2014. The conference tunities - for both Central Asia and the West, value lies in the objectives stated by its charter was relevant for the work of major institutions present in theatre as well as for the international community as a and in its international network. insofar it offered a rather precise picture of the possible end sta- whole. tes, of the means necessary to achieve them and the major obsta- The rst session outlines the current situation The charter speci es that the NDCF works cles that can be found by the local government and its assisting and the plans for the intended outcome in the with the Member States of the Atlantic Allian- countries on the path to full recovery of the country. country. The rationale for the second panel is to ce, its partners and the countries that have some Regarding future scenarios the main hinge of the process will be de ne not only the challenges, but also alter- form of co-operation with NATO. Through the the political transition from which the security and economic tran- native end states, entailing different capabilities ASK AND TASK AND ASK Foundation the involvement of USA and Cana- sition will depend. Without a political transition there is no transi- and means that are consistent with unexpected da is more uid than in other settings. tion at all and it must be built on the achievements of the last 11 developments. years. The main responsibility rests with the Afghan leaders, despi- AFGHANISTAN The regional dimension, a crucial variable in any The Foundation was born two years ago and is te the in uence of some external actor. scenario, explores the complex interactions in rapidly expanding its highly speci c and custo- After the nal publication of the candidates’ list in November 2013 the area, taking into account the intentions and mer-tailored activities, achieving an increasingly there is still no certainty about the next leader, an essential gu- goals of the different actors. The last session fo- higher pro le, also through activities dedicated re to ensure a strong central government. Without it there will be TO 2014 cussed on the different strategies needed to le- to decision makers and their staffs. the collapse of the army and security forces that actually are less AND BEYOND ave a viable Afghanistan from the point of view coherent than desired. Without an adequate economic sustainabi- of the international community. Since it is a body with considerable freedom of lity, the army risks to be vulnerable regarding its discipline, staying AND BEYOND action, transnational reach and cultural open- power and unbalanced ethnic distribution. ness, the Foundation is developing a wider On the other hand it is essential to avoid in future a third mar- TO 2014 TO scienti c and events programme. ginalization of Afghanistan. Other important enabling factors are: ASK AND TASK the “weapon of mass instruction” (that will help in entrenching a democratic mentality and system); job creation; communication technology; exploitation of the natural resources; water manage- ment and the Afghan ownership of the transition. AFGHANISTAN AFGHANISTAN ISBN 978-88-6140-166-2 9788861 401662 NDCF-2014-cover.indd 1 11/02/14 10:20 The NDCF is a unique think-tank: international Objective of the conference was to explore the issues related to NATO D C F Despite scarce media attention, Afghanistan re- by design and based in Rome, due to its associa- the Afghan engagement by the international community after the mains a source of risks - and eventually oppor- tion with the NATO Defense College. Its added retreat of Allied combat units by December 2014. The conference tunities - for both Central Asia and the West, value lies in the objectives stated by its charter was relevant for the work of major institutions present in theatre as well as for the international community as a and in its international network. insofar it offered a rather precise picture of the possible end sta- whole. tes, of the means necessary to achieve them and the major obsta- The rst session outlines the current situation The charter speci es that the NDCF works cles that can be found by the local government and its assisting and the plans for the intended outcome in the with the Member States of the Atlantic Allian- countries on the path to full recovery of the country. country. The rationale for the second panel is to ce, its partners and the countries that have some Regarding future scenarios the main hinge of the process will be de ne not only the challenges, but also alter- form of co-operation with NATO. Through the the political transition from which the security and economic tran- native end states, entailing different capabilities ASK AND TASK AND ASK Foundation the involvement of USA and Cana- sition will depend. Without a political transition there is no transi- and means that are consistent with unexpected da is more uid than in other settings. tion at all and it must be built on the achievements of the last 11 developments. years. The main responsibility rests with the Afghan leaders, despi- AFGHANISTAN The regional dimension, a crucial variable in any The Foundation was born two years ago and is te the in uence of some external actor. scenario, explores the complex interactions in rapidly expanding its highly speci c and custo- After the nal publication of the candidates’ list in November 2013 the area, taking into account the intentions and mer-tailored activities, achieving an increasingly there is still no certainty about the next leader, an essential gu- goals of the different actors. The last session fo- higher pro le, also through activities dedicated re to ensure a strong central government. Without it there will be TO 2014 cussed on the different strategies needed to le- to decision makers and their staffs. the collapse of the army and security forces that actually are less AND BEYOND ave a viable Afghanistan from the point of view coherent than desired. Without an adequate economic sustainabi- of the international community. Since it is a body with considerable freedom of lity, the army risks to be vulnerable regarding its discipline, staying AND BEYOND action, transnational reach and cultural open- power and unbalanced ethnic distribution. ness, the Foundation is developing a wider On the other hand it is essential to avoid in future a third mar- TO 2014 TO scienti c and events programme. ginalization of Afghanistan. Other important enabling factors are: ASK AND TASK the “weapon of mass instruction” (that will help in entrenching a democratic mentality and system); job creation; communication technology; exploitation of the natural resources; water manage- ment and the Afghan ownership of the transition. AFGHANISTAN AFGHANISTAN ISBN 978-88-6140-166-2 9788861 401662 NDCF-2014-cover.indd 1 11/02/14 10:20 Afghanistan to 2014 NATO Defense College Foundation Copyright © 2013 Via Alessandro Serpieri, 8 NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUndatION Roma 00197 www.ndc-foundation.org/ Edito da A.G.R.A. srl via Nomentana 257 00161 Roma tel +39 0644254205 fax +39 0644254239 e-mail [email protected] www.agraeditrice.com Finito di stampare nel mese di dicembre 2013 Realizzazione editoriale: Agra srl Progetto grafico: Rosa Schiavello Copertina: Shutterstock Stampa: CSR – Roma Gruppo di Lavoro Alessandro Minuto-Rizzo Alessandro Politi (editor) Zora Lea Hauser Si ringraziano la NATO Public Diplomacy Division ed il MAE per il sostegno offerto Special thanks to the NATO Public Diplomacy Division and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Tutti i diritti sono riservati a NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUndatION. Nessuna parte di questo libro può essere riprodotta o utilizzata in alcun modo, escluso le citazioni giornalistiche, senza l’autorizzazione scritta di NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUndatION, né per mezzi elettronici né meccanici, incluse fotocopie, registrazione o riproduzione attraverso qualsiasi sistema di elaborazione dati. AfghanIstan TO 2014 anD BEYOND ASK AND TASK Conference organised by NATO DEFENSE COLLEGE FOUndatIon in cooperation with Nato DEFENSE COLLEGE ISTITUto AFFARI IntERnaZIonaLI INDEX Foreword 7 AMBASSadoR ALESSandRO MINUto-RIZZO NDCF President 1. Looking a more than half full glass 9 AMBASSadoR MAURITS R. JocHEMS NATO Senior Civilian Representative (SCR) in Afghanistan 2. Meeting the real world 13 AntHonY H. CORDESMan Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy 3. The election is the major challenge 67 Jan KUBIš 4. A Few questions about Afghan civil society 69 EManUELE GIORdana 5. The Journey of Afghanistan towards Self Reliance 73 GENERAL ABDUL RAHIM WARdak 6. The transition is the foundation of a new course 85 DanIELE RIGGIO 7. Human rights in Afghanistan post-2014: their viability in a changing social and political setting 89 PROFESSOR Todd LandMan Director, Institute for Democracy and Conflict Resolution, University of Essex 8. Egypt as a case study 107 AMBASSadoR DR. MAHMOUD KAREM 9. Afghanistan – A view from Iran 113 AMIR MadanI In search of a diplomatic settlement 10. Funding, selling or transforming? 130 IVan SAFRancHUK 11. The Ankara perspective 133 GÜLDENER SonoMUT 12. A nation on its own feet 137 SHUKRIA BARkaZAI 13. Afghanistan: viability and capital flows 141 CHARLES A. GooHS 14. Supporting security and development together 145 VIOREL ISTICIoaIA BUDURA FOREWORD AMBASSadoR ALESSandRO MINUto-RIZZO NDCF President International security is a problem concerning everybody, in the same category of climate, energy or the environment.