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Bennett Prepared for the Smith Richardson Foundation The research described in this report was prepared for the Smith Richardson Foundation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-8172-8 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND—make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute.html R® is a registered trademark Cover image via kwasny221/Fotolia © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see the RAND permissions page (www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html). RAND OFFICES SANTA MONICA, CA • WASHINGTON, DC PITTSBURGH, PA • NEW ORLEANS, LA • JACKSON, MS • BOSTON, MA DOHA, QA • CAMBRIDGE, UK • BRUSSELS, BE www.rand.org Preface This report addresses the potential consequences of a North Korean government collapse that could lead to Korean unification. It explains how appropriate preparations now could reduce the negative conse- quences that could otherwise occur. These preparations need to address North Korean attitudes toward unification, providing humanitarian assistance to North Korea, demobilizing the North Korean military and security services, handling potential Chinese intervention in a col- lapse, and other key issues. The Smith Richardson Foundation sponsored this research. This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Divi- sion (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other nongovernmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis. For more information on the International Security and Defense Policy Center, see http://www.rand.org/nsrd/ndri/centers/isdp.html or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). iii Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Figures ............................................................................. xi Tables .............................................................................xiii Summary ..........................................................................xv Acknowledgments ............................................................xxvii Abbreviations ...................................................................xxix CHaptER ONE Introduction ....................................................................... 1 Historical Background ............................................................ 3 The Types of Collapse ............................................................. 5 Planning and Preparing for a North Korean Government Collapse ......... 6 Methodology ....................................................................... 8 The Need for Better Preparation ................................................10 Report Outline ....................................................................12 CHaptER TWO Possibilities for Collapse .......................................................13 Conceptualizing Government Collapse ........................................14 The Uncertain North Korean Situation ........................................21 The Background of Collapse and Potential Future Shocks ................. 24 North Korean Economic Difficulties ........................................ 26 North Korean Agriculture, Food, and Health ..............................32 Damage to the North Korean Control System ............................... 36 Failing Information Control ...................................................37 The Culture of Economic Criminality: Black Markets and Bribery ......39 v vi Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Other Rebellious Behavior in North Korea................................. 44 The Weakened North Korean Military ......................................47 Concluding Commentary on North Korean Conditions ................. 48 How Might the North Korean Government Collapse? ..................... 48 Getting a ROK Decision to Intervene and Seek Unification ............... 50 Two Key Assumptions ............................................................51 CHaptER THREE The Potential Consequences of Collapse ....................................53 The Potential Consequences .................................................... 54 Consequences in North Korea ...................................................58 The Failure of Government Functions .......................................58 Conflict ......................................................................... 60 Severe Famine, Starvation, and Other Health Consequences ............ 64 Human Rights Consequences ................................................ 66 Internally Displaced People and Refugees ...................................67 Potential Consequences in South Korea ....................................... 68 North Korean Military Threats to the ROK as a Collapse Develops .....69 North Korean Military Threats to the ROK Postcollapse .................70 Other North Korean Security Threats to the ROK Postcollapse ..........73 The Potential Implications of Chinese Intervention ....................... 77 Implications for the United States ............................................. 77 Military Damage ............................................................... 77 Other Costs ..................................................................... 80 ROK and U.S. Decisions to Intervene ......................................... 80 Military Implications of a ROK and U.S. Intervention in North Korea ................................................................81 The Financial Costs of Intervention ..........................................83 Some Political Costs ............................................................85 Arranging an Intervention in North Korea ..................................85 Chinese Involvement ............................................................ 87 Would China Intervene? ...................................................... 87 Potential Consequences of Chinese Intervention ...........................91 Potential Consequences of China Not Intervening ........................ 99 Contents vii CHaptER FOUR Addressing North Korean Thinking About Unification ............... 103 The Challenges of North Korean Indoctrination and Fear ................ 104 North Korea Is Rich, South Korea Is Poor ................................ 105 The United States Is the Enemy ............................................. 107 The Challenge of North Koreans’ Fears for Their Future ................ 109 Overcoming North Korean Indoctrination and Fear ....................... 114 Initial Messages: “The ROK Is a Great Country”......................... 114 Next Steps: The North Korean People Can Attain ROK