A Summary of the Assessment Process of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change An invited presentation to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme Review Committee Martin Manning Andy Reisinger David Wratt New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington February 2009 New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute School of Government Victoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington New Zealand Report No: NZCCRI 2009-01 The Process of Climate Change Science Assessment as Carried Out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. An invited presentation to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme Review Committee. Martin Manning, Andy Reisinger, David Wratt February 2009 About the Authors: Prof Manning was Director of the IPCC Working Group I Technical Support Unit based in Colorado from 2002 – 2007. He has also been an elected member of the IPCC Bureau, a Coordinating Lead Author, Contributing Author, and Review Editor for IPCC reports and a government delegate to IPCC Panel Sessions from 1992 to 2002. Dr Andy Reisinger was Head of the IPCC Synthesis Report Technical Support Unit based in the UK and India from 2006– 2008. He was the IPCC Focal Point and government delegate to IPCC Panel Sessions for New Zealand from 2001 - 2006. Dr David Wratt has been a member of the IPCC Working Group I Bureau for the fourth and fifth IPCC assessment rounds. He has also been a Coordinating Lead Author, and Review Editor for IPCC reports, and a New Zealand government delegate to IPCC Panel Sessions since 1995. Climate Change Research Institute 1. Overview This paper supports an invited presentation to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme Review Committee on the IPCC process by the Climate Change Research Institute of Victoria University. Separate submissions to the committee, addressing the committee’s terms of reference, will be made by the Institute and by the New Zealand Climate Change Centre. The IPCC was established and is managed by governments in order to provide assessments of scientific and technical information relevant to climate change policy. Section 2 below summarises the organisation and management of the IPCC. The IPCC produces a comprehensive assessment report every 5 to 7 years. It also produces special reports on specific topics and methodological reports on greenhouse gas emission inventories. Section 3 summarises procedures used to prepare IPCC reports. Report preparation and the technical work of the IPCC is managed through three Working Groups (WGs) covering: physical climate science; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and mitigation options (see Fig 1). Figure 1. Structure of the IPCC. Since its inception in 1988 the IPCC has conducted four assessment rounds and produced some 22 major reports (see Section 5). The most recent assessment report was completed in 2007 and includes contributions from each WG together with a Synthesis Report bringing together their key findings. A Summary of IPCC Process 1 Climate Change Research Institute The IPCC operates with a very high degree of transparency and openness. Its products, procedures, reports of panel sessions, and complete records of the report preparation process, are publicly available from web sites.1 Section 4 of this paper summarises some of New Zealand’s recent involvement in the work of the IPCC. 1 See http://www.ipcc.ch/ A Summary of IPCC Process 2 Climate Change Research Institute 2. IPCC Organisational Structure The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program “to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation” .2 The IPCC is managed by a Panel of government delegates meeting in plenary sessions at least once a year. Typically 100 – 130 governments are represented at IPCC Panel sessions. All major decisions are taken by the Panel in plenary sessions. Decisions by the Panel are governed by the principle that “in taking decisions, and approving, adopting and accepting reports, the Panel, its Working Groups and any Task Forces shall use all best endeavours to reach consensus”.2 Note that the aim for consensus in conducting the affairs of the Panel does not apply to authors preparing the content of assessment and special reports – see Section 3. Key roles of government delegates on the Panel include: Electing the IPCC Chair and a 30-member Bureau (see Fig 1) responsible for managing a science assessment round and other IPCC activities, for a term of 6 or 7 years; Agreeing on the mandate, timetable and scope for any scientific and technical assessments, special reports, or other products; Approving or adopting IPCC reports (but the Panel is not directly involved in preparing or reviewing drafts – see Section 3). Approving an annual Trust Fund budget that covers the operation of a small Secretariat in Geneva, limited amounts of travel for developing country participants, publication costs, and meeting costs. The three WGs responsible for the preparation of assessment and special reports are led by developed and developing country co-chairs supported by WG Bureaux. These are all elected by governments as part of the IPCC Bureau. The developed country co-chair has a small Technical Support Unit (TSU) to manage the report preparation process. Working Groups and TSUs are not permanent organisations and are typically disbanded at the end of an assessment round. Funding for IPCC activities is through voluntary contributions by governments to the IPCC Trust Fund and by in-kind contributions to the work of the IPCC. In-kind support by governments is larger than direct funding and includes support of 2 See the Principles Governing IPCC Work at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc- principles.pdf A Summary of IPCC Process 3 Climate Change Research Institute TSUs, authors, expert meeting costs, and research activities that underpin the assessment process. The IPCC does not fund the time spent by authors or reviewers in preparing reports, thus its work is heavily dependent on the cooperation of the international scientific community together with national research agencies, universities, and their funders. The IPCC does not carry out, or manage research or collection of data, however, it does play a limited role in distributing data collected by other agencies. Furthermore, where no other agency has been available, the IPCC has played a coordinating or facilitating role within the research community. For example, this applied to the early development of socio-economic and greenhouse gas emission scenarios, whereas the relevant research community now operates its own coordination mechanisms. A Summary of IPCC Process 4 Climate Change Research Institute 3. The IPCC Assessment Process This section covers the procedures used for preparing assessment reports which are the main products of the IPCC. These procedures have been determined by governments and are carefully documented 3. From our personal experience we can say that these procedures are scrupulously adhered to. While the work of the IPCC is intended to be directly relevant to policymakers, the structure, language, and conceptual frameworks used in IPCC reports are all drawn from the relevant scientific and technical literature. For example, in order to be consistent with scientific literature, the term climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This is different from usage in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. An important characteristic of a science assessment, as produced by the IPCC, is that it must be based on pre-existing and well documented studies. In particular, IPCC procedures make clear that the primary source of material for an assessment is the relevant peer reviewed scientific literature. Consistent with this, a fundamental principle for preparing the content of IPCC reports is that: “Differing views on matters of a scientific, technical or socio- economic nature shall, as appropriate in the context, be represented in the scientific, technical or socio-economic document concerned”. 2 The key steps for preparation of an assessment report, in chronological sequence, are: agreement by the Panel to carry out the report scoping of the report’s content by scientists coordinated by the IPCC Bureau and WG Co-Chairs agreement by the Panel to the outline of the report nomination of experts by governments to write the report, and selection of author teams by the WG Bureaux two rounds of drafting and open international review followed by distribution of a final draft to governments approval of the final wording of the Summary for Policymakers by the IPCC Panel consistent with the underlying chapters, and acceptance of the report as a whole by the Panel. 3 See http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles-appendix-a.pdf A Summary of IPCC Process 5 Climate Change Research Institute The following sub-sections provide details on those steps with some examples drawn from the WG I report for the Fourth Assessment (AR4). 3.1 Preliminaries Prior to election of the Chair and Bureau, the Panel decides whether to undertake a comprehensive assessment, and sets a timetable for its completion. This determines the term of office of the Bureau. The decision to undertake the AR4 was taken in 2002. Similarly the Fifth Assessment round began with the election of the new bureau in 2008 and is to be completed in 2013 (WG I) and 2014 (WG II and WG III). Given this mandate, the IPCC Bureau organises one or more scoping meetings to consider the structure and coverage, but not the content, of the WG reports.