Alberta Politics in the time of Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 29, 2020 COVID-19: July 2020 Update Field Dates: July 14, 2020 to July 20, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Alberta Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Alberta, approval of the government’s handling of the outbreak has remained positive and steady since June– though lagging behind the provincial average. Kenney’s personal favourability has dropped since June while Rachel Notley’s is on the rise; yet, the UCP continues to hold a lead in vote intention due to their strong partisan base. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from July 2020 Canada This Month survey. The online survey was in field from July 14th to July 20th with a weighted sample size of 300 Alberta residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Alberta are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak and the impacts that is having on more general government approval and provincial vote choice. Government Approval General government satisfaction is down, but approval of the Alberta government’s handling of the outbreak is steady since June. All-in-all, Alberta still remains 12 points behind the provincial average when it comes to their handling of the outbreak. Alberta Mood: Half (50%) say they are dissatisfied with the 4 performance of the AB government while 43% say they are satisfied Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the PROVINCIAL government in Alberta? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Dissatisfied: 50% Satisfied: 43% 33% 32% 18% 10% 7% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: July 2020 Current Julydata: 2020 government are down 7 points since June to 43%satisfied Juneto since points 7 down are government Mood Tracking: Alberta 13% 25% 18% 44% Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked in government the PROVINCIAL of performance with the you are satisfied speaking, how Generally Sep-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Very satisfied Very Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Mar-18 Apr-18 with theAB satisfied are they Those saying May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Very dissatisfied Very Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) Alberta Jun-19 Jul-19 are...? you say you ? Would Sep-19 Nov-19 Don't know Don't Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 10% 33% 18% 32% 7% 5 COVID-19 Handling: When it comes to COVID-19 handling specifically, 6 3-in-5 (59%) say they approve of the AB gov’ts handling of the outbreak Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Alberta Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] Approve: 59% 40% Disapprove: 22% 19% 14% 12% 10% 4% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Approval of the Alberta gov’ts handling 7 of the outbreak is steady since June at 59% Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Alberta Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=300] 3% 4% 7% 10% 10% 12% 16% 14% 42% 40% 22% 19% Mar-20 Mar-20 (2) Apr-20 Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 (2) Jul-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Approval has been steady in Alberta 8 since June, but they remain 12 points below the provincial avg % who approve of government’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak: Alberta Vs. Provincial Average [asked of all respondents nationally; n=1500, all respondents in Alberta; n=300] Provincial Average 71% 69% 67% 69% 68% 69% 70% 64% 66% 63% 65% 59% 59% 60% Alberta 59% 55% 54% 44% March 16- March 24- March 31- April 9-13 April 20-22 May 1-5 May 29- June 19-23 July 14-20 18 26 April 2 June 1 Current data: July 2020 Read, Seen, Heard Those saying they’ve read, seen, or heard about Kenney is steady, but the impact of what they heard on their favourability of Kenney has been increasingly negative since May. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Alberta Read, Seen, Heard: Over half have read, seen, or heard about 10 Kenney but most of them say they were left less favourable towards him Have you read, seen or heard anything about Jason Kenney in the last Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=300] favourable towards Jason Kenney, or did it make no difference? [Asked of those who have RSH; n=162] 54% 46% A lot less favourable 39% Less Favourable: Somewhat less favourable 15% 54% Made no difference 27% Somewhat more favourable 9% More Favourable: A lot more favourable 10% 19% No Yes Current data: July 2020 Current Julydata: 2020 Note: Kenney in the last few days is steady since June at 54% sinceJune at issteady days few in the last Kenney Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, 49% 51% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 n=300] respondents; all of [asked about anything heard orseen read, you Have Sep-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Kenney Jason Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 about RSH have they Those whosay in the last few days? few the last in Jul-18 Aug-18 Yes Sep-18 Oct-18 No Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 majority form JasonUCP Kenney ledby Feb-19 Mar-19 government Apr-19 April2019: Apr-19 (2) Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 46% 54% 11 Current Julydata: 2020 Note: left less favourable continues trending upwards; up 9 points June since up 9points upwards; trending continues favourable less left Tracking: Impact Heard, Seen, Read, Alberta 10% 8% 22% 15% 46% Don't shown.notknow Aug-16 n=162]RSH; have who those of [asked Jason Kenney a more lot feeling you leave hear see or read, you what Did Sep-16 Jan-17 A lot more favourable more A lot Feb-17 , or did it make no difference? no it did make , or Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Somewhat more favourable more Somewhat Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 favourable Jul-18 Made no no difference Made Aug-18 Sep-18 more somewhat , Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 majority form JasonUCP Kenney ledby favourable Somewhat less favourable Somewhat Feb-19 Mar-19 The share saying they were were they saying share The government Apr-19 April2019: , somewhat less somewhat , Apr-19 (2) Jun-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 favourable A lot less favourable less A lot Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 less lot a or Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 favourable Jun-20 Jul-20 10% 9% 27% 15% 39% towards towards 12 The pay fight with doctors is top issue Albertans recall at 39%, with a 13 strongly negative impact (net -69%) And what have you read, seen or heard about Jason Kenney in the last few days? Please be specific. [Asked of those who have RSH; n=162] Impact by RSH More fav. No Difference Less fav. NET Pay Fight - Shandro/Alberta Doctors/Not able to leave province 39% 8% 14% 78% -69% COVID-19 - Fighting or responding to the crisis/updates 9% Government/premier - negative - general 6% COVID-19 - Opening the economy/ easing restriction 6% COVID-19-Mandatory mask controversy 5% Speeches/appearances/travel/premiers' meetings 4% 2019-2020 Budget /cuts - general 3% Bill 1/Critical Infrastructure Defense Act.-general 2% ‘Other’ includes: Pipeline issues 2% • Cuts to public sector/employees/salaries/pensions Government/premier - positive - general 2% • Plans to spend 30 million • Healthcare – General COVID-19 - Budget changes/financial aid/stimulus 1% • Wasteful spending/excessive Other 19% spending on travel • Standing up for Alberta/protecting None 2% Alberta's interests at federal level Don't Know 0% Note: Impact shown only for responses with a weighted sample size of n>30 14 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote and leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: In Alberta, nearly half (45%) believe that too 15 often the gov’t listens to experts instead of common sense Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=300] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…? To create equal opportunity so that [asked of all respondents; n=300] everyone can compete on their own to be 61% the best they can be Their ability to afford the programs and 35% services To redistribute wealth so that the poor and disadvantaged have more than they would if 27% The public's need for the programs and 52% left on their own services Don't know Don't know 13% 12% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=300] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=300] The profit system brings out the worst in 40% human nature.