Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan What is the situation of industrial structure? ■国土のモニタリング GDP (by industry) GDP and Employment data shows that the share of the service sector has increased in resent years. The share of manufacturing and construction sector has decreased in term of GDP, and been flat in term of employment number. GDP (by industry) Employment (by industry) 100% 100% 75% 75% other sector service sector 50% 50% construction sector manufacturing sector 25% 25% 0% 0% （year） 1970 1980 1990 1995 2001 2002 2003 （year） 1970 1980 1990 1995 2001 2002 2003 Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan What is the situation of industrial structure? ■国土のモニタリング Employment growth rate (by industry) The number of employed persons throughout all industries has continued to decline since 1995 in both the rural and the three metropolitan areas. In particular, the number of persons employed by the manufacturing sector in both the rural and the three metropolitan areas has been decreasing since 1990s and the number of persons employed by the construction sector in both the rural and the three metropolitan areas has been decreasing since 1995. In contrast, although its growth has been dulled recently, the service sector has continued to hire since 1995 in both the rural and the three metropolitan areas. Number of employed persons in both the rural and the three metropolitan areas （％） All industries （％） Manufacturing sector 20 20 15 the three major urban economic spheres 15 10 10 5 the rural economic 0 5 spheres -5 建設業 0 the rural economic -10 -5 -15 spheres -10 -20 the three major urban economic spheres （％） 1985→1990 1990→1995 1995→2000 -15 （year） 1985→1990 1990→1995 1995→2000 （year） （％） Construction sector （％） Service sector 20 the rural economic 20 the rural economic 15 spheres spheres 15 10 10 5 0 5 the three major urban economic spheres -5 the three major urban economic 0 spheres -10 -5 -15 -10 1985→1990 1990→1995 1995→2000 （year） -15 Note: 1985→1990 1990→1995 1995→2000 （year） The term three major urban economic spheres refers to the Tokyo (Saitama Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture, Tokyo Metropolis, and Kanagawa Prefecture), Nagoya (Gifu Prefecture, Aichi Prefecture, and Mie Prefecture), and the Kansai (Kyoto Prefecture, Osaka Prefecture, Hyogo Prefecture, and Nara Prefecture). The term rural refers to any prefecture outside the three metropolitan areas. Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan What is the situation of the international competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing sector? Growth rate of product shipment and number of establishments for manufacturing sector ■国土のモニタリング Product shipment data shows that both the rural and three major urban economic spheres indicate the same trend. Number of business offices in the manufacturing sector indicates that the number has declined in the three metropolitan areas and other urban employment areas. When it comes to the number of business offices by type of facility, the number of “factories, plants, and mines” has declined sharply in the rural and three metropolitan and rural areas since 1990s. Growth rate of product shipment in the rural and three Number of new establishment in the manufacturing sector in the major urban economic spheres rural and the three metropolitan areas （％） （number） 10 12000 8 the three major urban economic spheres 6 10000 4 8000 the three major urban economic 2 0 6000 -2 Metropolitan Employment Areas in Rural area -4 4000 the rural economic -6 2000 Micropolitan Employment Areas in Rural -8 spheres -10 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 （year） 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 （year） Number of establishment in the manufacturing sector by type of facility Three major urban economic spheres Rural area （x10,000） （x10,000） 50 50 others 40 40 business office 30 30 which looks like a house 20 factories, plants, 20 and mines 10 10 business offices 0 0 1981 1991 2001 （year）1981 1991 2001 （year） Note: The term “urban employment area” is based in the definition of Kanemoto and Tokuoka’s “Metropolitan Area Definitions in Japan”. For this study, the term “Metropolitan Employment Areas" defines the DID population of the core is at least 50,000. The term “Micropolitan Employment Areas” defines the DID population of the core is at least 10,000 and less than 50,000. Okinawa Kagoshima Miyazaki Ooita import Kumamoto － Nagasaki Saga Export Fukuoka ■国土のモニタリング Kouchi Ehima Kagawa Tokushima Yamaguchi Hiroshima Okayama Shimane Tottori Wakayama Nara Hyougo Oosaka Kyoto gion’s product and service. and product gion’s Shiga ternational competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing sector? manufacturing of Japanese competitiveness ternational Mie Aichi Shizuoka three metropolitan areas are positive, especially in Tokyo. Net Net Tokyo. in especially positive, are areas metropolitan three Gifu Nagano Yamanasi Fukui Ishikawa ies dependence on other re on ies dependence Toyama Niigata What is the situation of the in Knagawa Tokyo Chiba Saitama Gunma Tochigi Ibaraki Fukusima Yamagata Akita Proportion of value for import and export to for gross product by prefecture (2002) by product gross for to and export for import value of Proportion Miyagi Iwate Aomori Proportion of Proportion Proportion of Proportion The data of Aichi Prefecture is not open to the public. The data of Aichi Prefecture value for import import value for value export for Hokkaido ） (%) 0 Note 80 60 40 20 （ 120 100 -20 -40 -60 -80 export of the rural area is negative, which impl is negative, area the rural export of With the exception of Chiba and Saitama, net exports of the of the exports net Saitama, and of Chiba exception the With -100 -120 Proportion of value for import and export to for gross product by prefecture. by product gross for to export and import for value of Proportion Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan and Regional Economy Asian Economy Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan What is the situation of the international competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing sector? Growth rate of Asian countries. ■国土のモニタリング After overcoming the economic crisis of 1997, Asian countries continued to expand, with China leading the way in investment, Korea and Taiwan in consumption, and Thailand in export. It is expected that a relatively high level of economic growth will continue until the year 2020. China, in particular, continues to be an attractive consumer market that is likely to exhibit 7 to 8 percent growth, and to achieve GDP per capita approaching the present level of Turkey by 2020. GDP growth rate in Asia (US＄) （％） GDP per capita in Asia (compared with 2001 levels for other countries) Expectation 100,000 14.0 HONG KONG LUXEMBOURG JAPAN USA 12.0 UNITEDKINGDOM 10.0 SINGAPORE CHINA 10,000 8.0 MEXICO ASEAN４ KOREA TAIWAN 6.0 NIES TURKEY 4.0 MALAYSIA JAPAN 1,000 2.0 THAILAND 0.0 Possibility CHINA （year） 100 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020 (year) 1981-85 16-2020 Contributions to change in GDP (by country) ％ THAILAND CHINA KOREA ％ TAIWAN ％ 15 ％ 15 15 12.0% 15 10.3％ 10 8.6％ 8.3% 9.1% 10 7.9% 7.3% 10 9.5% 10 0.4％ 7.5% 7.1% 5.7% 3.6％ 4.9% 5 4.7% 0.6% 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 -5 -10 -5 -5 -5 85-90 91-95 96-00 01-02 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-02 86-90 91-95 96-00 01 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-02 Private corsumptior ret Exports Ircrease ir stocks Gross fixed capital formatior Goverrmert corsumptior Statistical discreparcy Experditure or GDP Note: 1. GDP growth rate for the NIES and the ASEAN4 were calculated using an exchange rate for the US dollar in the year 2000. (NIES: Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore; ASEAN4: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand) Predictions are from the Japan Center for Economic Research (except for the years 2001 to 2004) and “Asian Development Outlook 2003”(Asian Development Bank). 2. Predictions for GDP per capita are compiled on US dollar figures for GDP and United Nations predictions of population growth. Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan What is the impact of developing regional partnership between Asian economy and regional economy in Japan? Amount of direct inward investment in Asian countries ■国土のモニタリング Since the end of the 1990s, direct inward investment in China has outstripped that of other Asian countries, with leading investment coming from Hong Kong/Macao, United States, Japan, Taiwan, and the Virgin Islands. Amount of direct inward investment in Asian countries Countries investing in China (accumulated from 1979 to 2002) （hundred （hundred million US$） million US$）700 600 600 ASEAN China 500 500 Others 400 Korea 300 400 Virgin Islands 200 300 Taiwan 100 NIEs Japan 0 200 1989909192939495969798990001022003(year) U.S.A. Hong 100 Kong/Macao Major countries investing in China (based on actual implementation ’79-’02) （year） Hong Kong/Macao 0 2106 1990 1995 2000 2002 2003 U.S.A. Note: Japan 1. Figures for China given on actual implementation basis. Figures for other Taiwan countries and regions given on the basis of approved basis. Virgin Islands 2. All figures in all denominations have been converted to US$. 4492 403 3. Figures for Hong Kong/Macao and China shown separately Korea 366 U.K. 333 244 German 80107 150 oters （ hundred million US$） What is the impact of developing regional partnership between Asian economy and regional Asian Economy and Regional Economy in Japan economy in Japan? Amount of Japanese direct outward investment to Asian countries ■国土のモニタリング Although Japanese direct outward investment to Asia has declined since 1998, investment to China has been increasing.