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Emissions Gap Report 2020 Executive summary Emissions Gap Report 2020 Executive summary – Emissions Gap Report 2020 Introduction The United Nations Secretary-General is calling on governments to use COVID-19 recovery as an opportunity to create more sustainable, resilient and inclusive This eleventh edition of the United Nations Environment societies. Aligned with this, the United Nations Framework Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report has been Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has stressed produced in a year where the COVID-19 crisis has dominated that governments could integrate and specify some of their the news and policymaking and has caused immense post-COVID-19 recovery plans and policies in their new or suffering and economic and social disruption worldwide. updated NDCs and long-term mitigation strategies, both of This economic disruption has briefly slowed – but far which countries are requested to submit in 2020. from eliminated – the historic and ever-increasing burden of human activity on the Earth’s climate. This burden is The most significant and encouraging development in terms observable in the continuing rise in extreme weather events, of climate policy in 2020 is the growing number of countries including wildfires and hurricanes, and in the melting of that have committed to achieving net-zero emissions goals glaciers and ice at both poles. The year 2020 has set new by around mid-century. These commitments are broadly records – they will not be the last. consistent with the Paris Agreement temperature goal, provided they are achieved globally. The litmus test of As in previous years, this report assesses the gap between these announcements will be the extent to which they are estimated future global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions if reflected in near-term policy action and in significantly more countries implement their climate mitigation pledges and ambitious NDCs for the period to 2030. the global emission levels from least-cost pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris As in previous years, the 2020 Emissions Gap Report has Agreement. This difference between “where we are likely to been guided by a distinguished steering committee and be and where we need to be” is known as the ‘emissions gap’. prepared by an international team of leading scientists, assessing all available information, including that published The report also examines two areas that are highly relevant in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate for bridging the gap and which have become even more Change (IPCC) reports, as well as in other recent scientific relevant in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic: the shipping studies. The assessment process has been transparent and and aviation sectors, where international emissions are not participatory. The assessment methodology and preliminary covered by nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and findings were made available to the governments of the lifestyle change. countries specifically mentioned in the report to provide them with the opportunity to comment on the findings. Reflecting the unusual circumstances, the 2020 report deviates from its usual approach of exclusively considering consolidated data from previous years as the basis for GHG emissions continued to increase assessment. To maximize its policy relevance, preliminary 1. in 2019. assessments of the implications of the pandemic and associated rescue and recovery measures are included ▶ Global GHG emissions continued to grow for the throughout the report. third consecutive year in 2019, reaching a record high of 52.4 GtCO2e (range: ±5.2) without land-use Are we on track to bridging the gap? Absolutely not. change (LUC) emissions and 59.1 GtCO2e (range: ±5.9) when including LUC. Although 2020 emissions will be lower than in 2019 due to the COVID-19 crisis and associated responses, GHG ▶ Fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (from concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, with fossil fuels and carbonates) dominate total the immediate reduction in emissions expected to have a GHG emissions including LUC (65 per cent) and negligible long-term impact on climate change. However, consequently the growth in GHG emissions. the unprecedented scale of COVID-19 economic recovery Preliminary data suggest that fossil CO2 emissions measures presents the opening for a low-carbon transition reached a record 38.0 GtCO2 (range: ±1.9) in 2019. that creates the structural changes required for sustained emissions reductions. Seizing this opening will be critical to ▶ Since 2010, GHG emissions without LUC have bridging the emissions gap. grown at 1.3 per cent per year on average, with IV Emissions Gap Report 2020 preliminary data suggesting a 1.1 per cent increase increasing in non-OECD economies. Many OECD in 2019. When including the more uncertain and economies have had a peak in GHG emissions, with variable LUC emissions, global GHG emissions efficiency improvements and growth in low-carbon have grown 1.4 per cent per year since 2010 on energy sources more than offsetting the growth average, with a more rapid increase of 2.6 per in economic activity. Despite improving energy cent in 2019 due to a large increase in vegetation efficiency and increasing low-carbon sources, forest fires. LUC emissions account for around emissions continue to rise in countries with strong 11 per cent of the global total, with the bulk of the growth in energy use to meet development needs. emissions occurring in relatively few countries. ▶ There is a general tendency that rich countries have ▶ Over the last decade, the top four emitters (China, higher consumption-based emissions (emissions the United States of America, EU27+UK and India) allocated to the country where goods are have contributed to 55 per cent of the total GHG purchased and consumed, rather than where they emissions without LUC. The top seven emitters are produced) than territorial-based emissions, as (including the Russian Federation, Japan and they typically have cleaner production, relatively international transport) have contributed to 65 more services and more imports of primary and per cent, with G20 members accounting for secondary products. In the 2000s, the gap between 78 per cent. The ranking of countries changes consumption and production was growing in rich dramatically when considering per capita countries but stabilized following the 2007–2008 emissions (figure ES.2). global financial crisis. Even though rich countries have had higher consumption-based emissions ▶ There is some indication that the growth in global than territorial-based emissions over the last GHG emissions is slowing. However, GHG emissions decade, both emission types have declined at are declining in Organisation of Economic Co- similar rates. operation and Development (OECD) economies and Figure ES.1. Global GHG emissions from all sources e) 60 2 Land-use change (CH4+N2O) Land-use change (CO2) 50 Fluorinated gases (F-gas) N2O 40 CH4 Fossil CO2 30 20 10 Global greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO emissions gas Global greenhouse 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 CO2