STAFF REPORT ACTION REQUIRED Feasibility of Toronto Hosting 2025 World Expo Date: January 6, 2014 To: Economic Development Committee City Manager and General Manager, From: Economic Development & Culture Division Wards: All Wards Reference Number: SUMMARY This report provides a high level feasibility review of considerations with respect to the City of Toronto hosting the 2025 World Expo. As directed by Council, the issues examined in this report include the following: procedures for selecting host cities; competitive position of Toronto compared to other potential bid cities; impact of past Council decisions and their bearing on any future bid; potential revenue to the City as a result of hosting the 2025 World Expo; potential number of jobs that would be created within the City as a result of hosting the 2025 World Expo; City lands that may be useful in hosting this major international event; potential legacy projects; potential trade and investment opportunities; land use, transportation and infrastructure issues; an estimate of time, cost and resources required to prepare formal bid documents; and a summary of the pros, cons and risks involved in bidding for and hosting the 2025 World Expo. Feasibility of Toronto Hosting 2025 World Expo 1 As part of this review, Ernst & Young (EY) were commissioned to prepare the attached, Feasibility Study in Respect of Hosting the 2025 World Expo, November 2013, (Appendix A). There are significant positive impacts to hosting a World Expo. On a global scale a World Expo provides a unique forum for nations and people from around the world to come together, focus attention on issues of global importance, and offer innovative ideas, products and services to address anticipated challenges and take advantage of opportunities. World Expos can also catalyze investment in infrastructure, development and renewal of urban areas such as the Port Lands. The EY report notes that hosting a World Expo would increase Toronto's global visibility and name recognition, enhance exports, and increase opportunities to attract investment and jobs, significantly more conventions and conferences, and reinforce its reputation as a major arts and culture hub both in Canada and around the world. There is also a strong regional context (in Toronto's case for the northeast and central parts of the United States and eastern Canada) since the vast majority of visitors are from a day's travel. Hosting a world's fair would strongly enhance Toronto's competitive position in the Great Lakes super-region. However, there are also significant costs and risks associated with a bid to host a World Expo. Canada's membership in the Bureau International des Expositions (BIE), the governing body responsible for organizing World Expos, expired in December 2013 as directed by the federal government. Since federal government support is essential for a successful bid, there would have to be a reversal of the decision to exit the BIE and the federal government would have to become a strong supporter and use its international offices to promote Toronto's bid. The support of the government of Ontario is also essential. The next stage in pursuing a bid to host the 2025 World Expo would be to undertake a more detailed Pre-Bid Phase analysis at an estimated cost for consultant services and staff of about $1 million. If Council then decided to submit a formal bid, the estimated cost to prepare the necessary supporting documents and promote the bid is in the range of $10 million to $15 million. If Toronto's bid was successful, a high level estimate of the net cost to host the 2025 World Expo based on the illustrative scenarios in the EY report is in the range of $1 billion to $3 billion which would need to be borne by one or more of the three orders of government. Time is also of the essence. Allowing for a total time period of 24 months to complete the Pre-Bid and Official Bid phases, including decisions by City Council, Government of Ontario, and Government of Canada, the Pre-Bid analysis must be initiated by May 2014. Meeting this timeline will be complicated by the prospect of all three orders of government having elections over the next two years and the running of the Pan/Para Pan Am Games in 2015. Feasibility of Toronto Hosting 2025 World Expo 2 RECOMMENDATION: The City Manager and General Manager of Economic Development and Culture recommend that: 1. City Council receive this report for information. Financial Impact If City Council receives this report for information or directs that no further action be taken there are no financial implications associated with consideration of this report. If City Council directs staff to undertake a Pre-Bid Phase analysis of the pros and cons of hosting the 2025 World Expo the estimated cost for consultant services and staff to prepare this more detailed assessment is about $1 million. The current 2014 and 2015 Budget submissions do not include funds to cover these expenses. This work which would, among other things, confirm the degree of support from the federal and provincial governments, private sector and public, would take about nine months to complete and be submitted early in the next term of Council, January/February 2015. At that time Council would have the opportunity to decide whether to proceed to prepare a formal bid to host the 2025 World Expo. The estimated cost to prepare and submit a formal bid is in the range of $10 million to $15 million. High level estimates of the revenues and costs to deliver the 2025 World Expo should a Toronto bid be successful are included in this report and the appended Feasibility Study in Respect of Hosting the 2025 World Expo, November 2013, prepared by Ernst &Young (Appendix A) and summarized in Appendix B. Based on the illustrative scenarios in the EY report the net cost is in the range of $1 billion to $3 billion. More refined and detailed estimates would be prepared as part of the Pre-Bid Phase analysis. These costs would be funded by all three orders of government. The Deputy City Manager and Chief Financial Officer has reviewed this report and agrees with the financial impact information. DECISION HISTORY At its meeting of June 6, 2012 City Council directed the City Manager and the General Manager, Economic Development and Culture to obtain input from the provincial and federal governments and key relevant agencies and boards and submit separate reports to the Economic Development Committee on the pros and cons of creating a bid to host World Expo 2025 and the 2024 Olympic Games in Toronto. http://app.toronto.ca/tmmis/viewAgendaItemHistory.do?item=2012.MM24.13 Feasibility of Toronto Hosting 2025 World Expo 3 ISSUE BACKGROUND In response to City Council's direction, the City engaged Ernst & Young (EY) to undertake a study of the pros and cons of hosting the 2024 Olympic Games and the 2025 World Expo in Toronto and prepare separate high level feasibility studies for each event. The Feasibility Study in Respect of Hosting the 2025 World Expo, November 2013, prepared by Ernst &Young, is appended to this report as Appendix A. This report and the attached Feasibility Study provide an initial assessment of the pros and cons of hosting the 2025 World Expo in the city of Toronto to assist Council in deciding if it wishes to proceed to the more detailed Pre-Bid Phase. This approach (i.e. initial assessment, Pre-Bid Phase, and Official Bid) follows the same process undertaken for the approval and preparation of Toronto's bid to host the 2015 World Expo which was ultimately abandoned. The information and analysis in these reports are based on key informant interviews as well as the review of available documents from previous bids, past and upcoming World Expos. As part of their assignment, EY met with officials from the federal and provincial governments, key relevant agencies and boards, private sector representatives, and City staff. Bid documents, research studies and literature on the impacts of World Expos in other jurisdictions were also reviewed. COMMENTS Reasons for Considering a Bid to Host a World Expo: Historically, World Expos explore the potential of the world's future. They provide a unique forum for nations and people from around the world to come together, focus attention on issues of global importance, and offer innovative ideas, products and services to address anticipated challenges and take advantage of opportunities. Recent and upcoming Expo themes include: Nature's Wisdom, Aichi, Japan (2005); Better City, Better Life, Shanghai, China (2010); and Feeding the Planet, Energy for Life, Milan, Italy (2015). These international events provide platforms for participating countries, corporations and organizations to share knowledge, exchange ideas, and showcase their culture, capabilities and achievements with a view to helping shape, influence and improve our future as well as for business, government, civic leaders and trade delegations from around the world to meet, establish or strengthen relationships, and form mutually beneficial partnerships. There is also a strong regional context (in Toronto's case for the northeast and central parts of the United States and eastern Canada) since the vast majority of visitors are from a day's travel. Hosting a world's fair would strongly enhance Toronto's competitive position in the Great Lakes super-region. World Expos also have a local context and can have a transformative effect on the host city. A bid often originates with a group of business and civic leaders in a host city or city-region. World Expos increase the international and large scale regional visibility of Feasibility of Toronto Hosting 2025 World Expo 4 the host city and enhance its global profile and image by putting the city at the centre of a scientific, social, economic and cultural discourse on issues of global relevance and importance.