Growth Against All Odds: TURKISH ECONOMY Saffet M. Molvali Eren Holding A.S./ Istanbul FACTS: • Area: 783.562 km 2 • Population: 74,7 million (Dec 31, 2011) Median Age: 28,8 years • GDP (nominal): $772.298 billion • GDP Per Capita: $10.444 • Exports: $134,9 billion ($62,4 billion to EU) • Imports: $ 240,8 billion ($91,1 billion form EU) • A founding member of the OECD and the G-20 major economies • 16th biggest economy among 30 OECD countries. • Official candidate to EU; Formal opening of accession negotiations in 2005. Economical Growth History • Sharp recessions and financial crises in 1999, 2001 and 2009. After an economic boom during 2002-2007, Turkey’s economy was hit in 2008, following the global financial meltdown But rapid recovery in 2010-2011. • With % 8,5 growth rate the second best country after China in 2011 Yearly GDP Growth • Steady growth over the years in GDP per capital. • Radical reforms in government and banking sectors resulted in dynamic and healthy growth since 2001. • Due to recent financial regulations and restrictions, minimum damage to finance sector in the recent global crisis. (e.g. BDDK) • As for the country’s GDP composition, Turkey’s economy is dominated by its service sector which contributes about 62.6% of total GDP; followed by its industry sector presenting 28,1%; and agriculture sector accounts for 9.3% of country’s total economy. The major industries in Turkey include textiles , food processing , automotive , electronics , tourism , mining , steel , petroleum •Total value of Turkey’s export achieved $134.9 billion in 2011 meanwhile the amount of total import reached $ 240, 8 billion. The The main products exported by Turkey were textile and apparel, foodstuffs, metal, machinery and transport equipments. EU was the biggest export destination of Turkey, of which Germany accounted for 9.6% of Turkey’s total exports followed by UK 6 %, Italy 5.8% and France 5%. The country’s main import products were mineral fuels, machinery, steel, electrics and transportations. Russian was marked as the biggest import source for Turkey, which 10% of Turkey’s import goods were from Russian, then 9.5% from Germany, 8.9% from China, 6.6% from US, and 5.5% from Italy. Turkey – Germany Trade Relations • There is a steady growth in the trade volume between two countries. • The nature of the exported and imported goods has a great variety. • More than 4,700 German companies were operating in Turkey, and their investments had reached around 5 billion USD. Standard & Poor's : Rating: BB Outlook: Positive Moody's : Rating: Ba1 Outlook: Positive Actual credit rating of Turkey Fitch : Rating: BB+ Outlook: Positive After the Crisis Turkish Economy • The crises in the previous decades resulted in a strengthening of the economic structure. •BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency) oversees and strictly controls the ratios and cash flows of the finance institutions since 2001. •Due to these regulations, Turkish banks were in a liquid position in crisis and they didn’t affected. • High interest rate policy of Turkish Central Bank, in contrary to rest of the world, has prevented the cash outflows significantly. • Additionally, Turkish economy is mainly based on real sector rather than fictional papers. The Other Strong Points of Turkey - A geographical strategic location; - A well developed industrial basin; - A country whose calling is to join the EU club by 2015-2020; - A rapidly developing consumer middle class; - A Flexible labor law, which favors investment and low labor costs; - A sustained growth influenced by a modern and dynamic private sector; - A strong increase in productivity in recent years; - A legal framework close to European standards and favorable to investment..