Long Range Facilities Plan 2019 - Draft April 18, 2019 Table of Contents Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................5 Long Range Facilities Plan Development ..............................................................................8 Update on Recommendations from 2016 LRFP ...........................................................8 Regulations, Policy, and Compliance ..........................................................................8 Guiding Principles .....................................................................................................9 Goals of Implementing the LRFP .............................................................................. 10 Priorities ................................................................................................................. 10 Maximize the number of students in safe schools ........................................................................ 10 Increase Capacity Utilization by decreasing excess capacity ......................................................... 10 Reduce Enrolment Pressure at Full Schools .................................................................................. 11 Effectively Manage our Capital Assets ........................................................................................... 11 Project Considerations ............................................................................................ 12 2018-19 Long Range Facilities Plan Process .............................................................. 12 Public Engagement .................................................................................................. 13 District Programs and Partnerships .................................................................................... 15 Educational Programs .............................................................................................. 15 Program Reviews .................................................................................................... 15 French Programs ............................................................................................................................ 15 Alternate Programs ....................................................................................................................... 15 Special Education Programs ..................................................................................... 16 Community Partnerships ......................................................................................... 16 Existing Facilities and Properties and Asset Planning .......................................................... 17 Overview ................................................................................................................ 17 Facility Age and Condition ....................................................................................... 18 Capital Fund Revenue Generation ............................................................................ 21 Update on New or Expansion Requests in the 2019-2020 Five Year Capital Plan ........ 23 Heritage Status ....................................................................................................... 24 Alternate Use of Schools ......................................................................................... 26 Capital Asset Management Planning ........................................................................ 27 3.7.1 Required funding contributions for major capital projects .................................................. 27 3.7.2 Converting Seismic Upgrade Projects to Replacement School Projects ............................... 28 3.7.3 Revenue Generation to Enhance Capital Projects ................................................................ 29 3.7.4 Development and Implementation of a Capital Asset Management Plan ........................... 29 Enrolment Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 31 Approach to Enrolment Forecasts ............................................................................ 31 Correlation between Population and Enrolment .......................................................................... 32 Reliable Data Sources .................................................................................................................... 33 Impact of Residential Development on Enrolment ....................................................................... 33 Historical Accuracy of Enrolment Forecasts .............................................................. 34 Historical Enrolment Trends .................................................................................... 34 Declining Enrolment ...................................................................................................................... 35 Stable number of births in the City of Vancouver ......................................................................... 37 Correlation between births and Kindergarten Enrolment ............................................................. 38 Grade Cohort Size and Growth ...................................................................................................... 39 Registration at the District Reception and Placement Centre (DRPC) ........................................... 40 VSB Long Range Facilities Plan Draft - 1 - April 18, 2019 Table of Contents Participation Rate/Market Share ................................................................................................... 41 Impact of enrolment at independent schools on VSB enrolment ................................................. 41 Results of Enrolment Forecasts ................................................................................ 42 Operating Capacity and Capacity Utilization....................................................................... 43 District Operating Capacity ...................................................................................... 43 Enrolling Capacity and Scheduling Capacity .............................................................. 46 Current and Forecast Capacity Utilization ................................................................. 46 Current and Forecast Capacity Utilization for Elementary and Secondary Schools ...................... 47 Approaches to Balancing Enrolment with Capacity ............................................................. 49 Current Capacity Utilization ..................................................................................... 49 Enrolment Management Strategies.......................................................................... 50 Maximizing Enrolling Space ..................................................................................... 52 Major Capital Projects to Increase Capacity .............................................................. 53 Areas of Enrolment Growth – Capacity Utilization Scan ...................................................... 54 Managing Enrolment Challenges ................................................................................................... 55 Elementary Schools in the King George Study Area................................................... 55 Enrolment Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 56 District Actions to Date .................................................................................................................. 57 Elementary Schools in Kitsilano Study Area .............................................................. 58 Enrolment Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 59 District Choice Programs ............................................................................................................... 60 District Actions to Date .................................................................................................................. 60 Elementary Schools in the North Hamber Study Area ............................................... 60 Enrolment Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 61 District Choice Programs ............................................................................................................... 62 Actions to Date .............................................................................................................................. 63 South Hamber Study Area ....................................................................................... 63 Enrolment Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 64 District Choice Programs ............................................................................................................... 65 District Actions to date .................................................................................................................. 65 King George Secondary School ................................................................................. 66 Actions to Date .............................................................................................................................. 67 Areas with New Residential Development – Capacity