Towards a robust, resilient wellbeing economy for Scotland Towards a robust, resilient wellbeing economy for Scotland ______________________________________________ Report of the Advisory Group on Economic Recovery Towards a robust, resilient wellbeing economy for Scotland Table of Contents Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1. Remit, Membership and Approach ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Membership of the group ...................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Call for views from Scottish society .................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Guiding Principles ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 2. Scotland’s economic context ....................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.1 Scotland’s economic strategy ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2 Current economic situation ................................................................................................................................................................ 12 2.3 Economic prospects ............................................................................................................................................................................... 13 2.4 Assessment of factors affecting the economic recovery ........................................................................................................ 14 2.5 Potential impact of Brexit .................................................................................................................................................................... 15 3. The National Performance Framework and the Four Capitals ........................................................................................................ 18 3.1 The Four Capitals .................................................................................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 OECD Wellbeing Framework .............................................................................................................................................................. 19 3.3 Summary Assessment ........................................................................................................................................................................... 19 4. The challenges ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.1 Sectors and industries ........................................................................................................................................................................... 22 4.2 Places and regions ................................................................................................................................................................................. 26 4.3 People and skills ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 28 4.4 Impact on inequalities .......................................................................................................................................................................... 30 5. Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 33 5.1 The Fiscal Framework ............................................................................................................................................................................ 33 5.2 An investment-led recovery ............................................................................................................................................................... 35 5.3 Enterprise and regional economic development ....................................................................................................................... 37 5.4 Ownership stakes in companies ....................................................................................................................................................... 38 5.5 Strategic support for businesses ...................................................................................................................................................... 39 5.6 Foreign Direct Investment ................................................................................................................................................................... 40 5.7 Relationship with the Business Community ................................................................................................................................. 41 5.8 Planning and regulation ....................................................................................................................................................................... 42 5.9 Conditionality ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 5.10 Digital Infrastructure ........................................................................................................................................................................ 45 5.11 Prioritisation and delivery of green investments .................................................................................................................. 47 5.12 Investment in natural capital ......................................................................................................................................................... 48 5.13 Tourism and hospitality ................................................................................................................................................................... 49 5.14 Creative Sector .................................................................................................................................................................................... 50 5.15 Care Sector ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 51 5.16 The Third Sector ................................................................................................................................................................................. 51 5.17 People, place and community ...................................................................................................................................................... 52 5.18 Learning Loss ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 53 5.19 Workplace Innovation ...................................................................................................................................................................... 54 5.20 Skills and the labour market .......................................................................................................................................................... 55 5.21 Universities and colleges ................................................................................................................................................................ 57 5.22 Apprentice Training .......................................................................................................................................................................... 59 5.23 A Scottish Jobs Guarantee ............................................................................................................................................................. 60 5.24 The Four Capitals ............................................................................................................................................................................... 61 5.25 Implementation .................................................................................................................................................................................. 61 6. Charts and figures ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 62 Towards a robust, resilient