Climate Vulnerability in Asia’s High Mountains COVER: VILLAGE OF GANDRUNG NESTLED IN THE HIMALAYAS. ANNAPURNA AREA, NEPAL; © GALEN ROWELL/MOUNTAIN LIGHT / WWF-US Climate Vulnerability in Asia’s High Mountains May 2014 PREPARED BY TAYLOR SMITH Independent Consultant [email protected] This report is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents are the responsibility of WWF and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. THE UKOK PLATEAU NATURAL PARK, REPUBLIC OF ALTAI; © BOGOMOLOV DENIS / WWF-RUSSIA CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .........................................1 4.2.1 Ecosystem Restoration ........................................... 40 4.2.2 Community Water Management .............................. 41 State of Knowledge on Climate Change Impacts .................. 1 4.3 Responding to Flooding and Landslides ....................... 41 State of Knowledge on Human Vulnerability ......................... 1 4.3.1 Flash Flooding ......................................................... 41 Knowledge Gaps and Policy Perspective .............................. 3 4.3.2 Glacial Lake Outburst Floods .................................. 42 Recommendations for Future Adaptation Efforts ................. 3 4.3.3 Landslides ............................................................... 43 4.4 Adaptation by Mountain Range ....................................... 44 Section I 4.4.1 The Hindu Kush–Karakorum–Himalaya Region ...... 44 Introduction .....................................................5 4.4.2 The Pamir Range .................................................... 45 4.4.3 The Kunlun Range .................................................. 46 1.1 Context of the Report ........................................................ 5 4.4.4 The Tien Shan–Altai Region .................................... 46 1.2 Objectives of the Report .................................................... 5 1.3 Methodology ....................................................................... 6 1.4 Study Area .......................................................................... 6 Section V Limitations of Current Evidence and Section II Recommendations for Key Research Needs ................. 49 State of Scientific Knowledge on Glaciology, 5.1 Data Needs ....................................................................... 49 Hydrology and Climate Change ................................9 5.1.1 Glacier Data ............................................................ 49 5.1.2 Hydrometeorologic Data .......................................... 49 2.1 Glacial Science ................................................................... 9 5.1.3 Demographic Data .................................................. 50 2.2 Climate Pattern Changes ................................................. 11 5.2 Research Needs ............................................................... 50 2.3 Current Knowledge by Mountain Range ........................ 12 5.2.1 Black Carbon .......................................................... 50 2.3.1 The Hindu Kush–Karakorum–Himalaya Region ...... 13 5.2.2 Permafrost .............................................................. 51 2.3.2 The Pamir Range .................................................... 19 5.2.3 Groundwater Storage .............................................. 51 2.3.3 The Kunlun Range .................................................. 20 5.2.4 Model Downscaling and Precipitation Projections ... 51 2.3.4 The Tien Shan Range ............................................. 22 5.2.5 Satellite Data Calibration ......................................... 51 2.3.5 The Altai Range ....................................................... 25 5.2.6 Snow-Water Equivalent ........................................... 51 2.3.6 Summary of Range-Specific Knowledge ................. 27 5.2.7 Soil Parameters ....................................................... 53 Section III 5.2.8 Enhanced Warming and Feedback Mechanisms ..... 53 5.2.9 GLOF Risk Monitoring ............................................. 53 Summary of Literature on Climate 5.2.10 Accurate Land Cover Data .................................... 53 Change Vulnerability and Impacts ........................... 29 5.3 Satellite Remote Sensing ................................................ 53 5.3.1 Glacier Inventory ..................................................... 53 3.1 Flooding ............................................................................ 30 5.3.2 Glacier Mass Balance Measurements ..................... 54 3.2 Sedimentation .................................................................. 30 5.3.3 Hydrologic Modeling ................................................ 54 3.3 Ecosystem Services ........................................................ 31 5.3.4 Aerosol Monitoring .................................................. 56 3.4 Health ................................................................................ 32 5.3.5 GLOF Risk Assessment .......................................... 57 3.5 Summary of Climate Change and Vulnerability 5.3.6 Imagery Availability to USAID and Literature by Mountain Range ....................................... 32 Implementing Partners .................................................... 57 3.5.1 The Hindu Kush–Karakorum–Himalaya Region ...... 33 3.5.2 The Pamir Range .................................................... 34 Section VI 3.5.3 The Kunlun Range .................................................. 35 3.5.4 The Tien Shan–Altai Region .................................... 36 Current Policy Initiatives Supporting Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience ................................... 59 Section IV 6.1 Regional Perspective on Climate Change Policy .......... 59 Current Adaptation Efforts .................................. 39 6.2 Interstate Policy Initiatives .............................................. 59 4.1 Responding to Climate Uncertainty ................................ 39 6.2.1 The Indus Water Treaty ........................................... 59 4.1.1 Livelihood Diversification ......................................... 39 6.2.2 The Thimphu Statement on Climate Change ........... 60 4.1.2 Improved Irrigation Techniques ............................... 39 6.2.3 The Climate Summit for a Living Himalayas ............ 61 4.2 Reduced Water Availability ............................................. 40 6.3 Country-Specific Policy Initiatives ................................ 61 6.3.1 Bhutan ..................................................................... 61 Figures 6.3.2 India ..................................................................... 61 FIGURE 1 - Geographic and political overview map of the 6.3.3 Kyrgyzstan .............................................................. 62 study area, including field-site countries, 6.3.4 Mongolia ................................................................. 62 glacial extents (Global Land Ice Measurements 6.3.5 Nepal ..................................................................... 62 from Space, Armstrong et al., 2013), principal 6.3.6 Pakistan .................................................................. 63 watersheds (Hydrosheds, Lehner et al., 2008), 6.3.7 Tajikistan ................................................................ 65 and generalized snow leopard range (from ISLT, 6.3.8 Summary ................................................................ 65 2008). ............................................................ 7 FIGURE 2 - Glacier mass balance, showing accumulation, Section VII ablation and equilibrium zones (Armstrong, Recommendations for Future Adaptation Efforts .......... 67 2010). ............................................................ 9 7.1 General Recommendations ............................................. 67 FIGURE 3 - Generalized range boundaries for AHM, showing 7.1.1 Community Education ............................................. 67 major drainage basins, glacial extent and 7.1.2 Locally Driven Water Management .......................... 67 administrative boundaries............................ 13 7.1.3 Climate-Smart Restoration FIGURE 4 - Snowmelt contribution and weather patterns in the of Natural Ecosystems ..................................................... 68 HKH, showing the variable influence of the ISM 7.1.4 Drawing on Local and Traditional Knowledge .......... 68 (May-Oct) and WWDs. Bands of >70% and 25- 7.1.5 Synchronizing National, Regional 65% contribution of rainfall to annual discharge and Local Climate Change Policy .................................... 69 indicated by dark arrows. Data derived from 7.2 Regional Recommendations ........................................... 70 satellite precipitation data sets, monitoring 7.2.1 Disaster Risk Management ..................................... 70 stations in the region, and satellite-based snow monitoring. Modified from Bookhagen and 7.2.2 Regional Resource Management ............................ 70 Burbank (2010). ........................................... 14 7.2.3 Technical Capacity Building ..................................... 71 7.2.4 Data Sharing and Data FIGURE 5 - Glacial length changes throughout the HKH Collection Standardization ............................................... 72 region, showing the growth of glaciers in 7.3 Range-Specific Recommendations ................................ 72 the Karakorum