Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2010-09 Instability in the Horn of Africa an assessment of the Ethiopia-Eritrean conflict Teka, Edwin M. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/5236 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS INSTABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ETHIOPIA-ERITREAN CONFLICT by Edwin M. Teka September 2010 Thesis Advisor: Douglas Porch Second Reader: Letitia Lawson Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED September 2010 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Instability in the Horn of Africa: An Assessment of 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Ethiopian-Eritrean Conflict 6. AUTHOR(S) 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943-5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) This thesis analyzes instability in the Horn of Africa focusing specifically to the Ethiopia-Eritrea border conflict fought between the two countries in 1998-2000. It provides a historical background of both countries, and how they were influenced by external actors and subsequent federation of Eritrea into Ethiopia in 1950. The study then examines the termination of Eritrean federation, which sparked the emergence of secession movements culminating to Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Among the notable findings of the study are that the two countries signed a total of twenty-five protocols by September 1993, which included among other things, a joint defense pact and trade agreements but were not implemented. Economic and border incompatibilities served as sources of tension between the two countries. Despite the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the African Union and the international community have failed to resolve this conflict, and it remains a potential flashpoint in the Horn of Africa. The recommendations include pursuing a political compromise over the symbolic village of Badme and placing it under the sovereignty of a condominium administered by both states and then addressing other sources of interdependence. Additionally, the international community needs to pressurize both countries to fully democratize. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Instability, liberation movements, proxy wars, political federation, 15. NUMBER OF political compromise, negotiation, arbitration, conflict resolution, delimitation, virtual PAGES demarcation, sustainable peace, security cooperation, strategic interests, conflict, secede. 111 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540-01-280-5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2-89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239-18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited INSTABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE ETHIOPIA-ERITREAN CONFLICT Edwin M. Teka Major, Kenya Army B.Sc in Agriculture, University of Nairobi, 1998 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN SECURITY STUDIES (STABILIZATION AND RECONSTRUCTION) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2010 Author: Edwin M. Teka Approved by: Douglas Porch Thesis Advisor Letitia Lawson Second Reader Harold A. Trinkunas, PhD Chairman, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT This thesis analyzes instability in the Horn of Africa focusing specifically to the Ethiopia- Eritrea border conflict fought between the two countries in 1998-2000. It provides a historical background of both countries, and how they were influenced by external actors and subsequent federation of Eritrea into Ethiopia in 1950. The study then examines the termination of Eritrean federation, which sparked the emergence of secession movements culminating to Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Among the notable findings of the study are that the two countries signed a total of twenty-five protocols by September 1993, which included among other things, a joint defense pact and trade agreements but were not implemented. Economic and border incompatibilities served as sources of tension between the two countries. Despite the signing of a Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the African Union and the international community have failed to resolve this conflict, and it remains a potential flashpoint in the Horn of Africa. The recommendations include pursuing a political compromise over the symbolic village of Badme and placing it under the sovereignty of a condominium administered by both states and then addressing other sources of interdependence. Additionally, the international community needs to pressurize both countries to fully democratize. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. BACKGROUND ..............................................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE................................................................................................5 C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESIS ................................................................6 D. LITERATURE REVIEW ...............................................................................7 E. METHODS AND SOURCES........................................................................11 F. ORGANIZATION OF THE STUDY...........................................................11 II. HISTORICAL REVIEW OF AREA UNDER STUDY..........................................13 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................13 B. ITALIAN OCCUPATION ............................................................................13 C. THE BRITISH OCCUPATION ...................................................................18 D. TERMINATION OF THE ETHIO-ERITREAN FEDERATION............20 E. EMERGENCE OF SECESSION MOVEMENTS......................................21 F. EPLF-TPLF RELATIONS, 1975–1991 .......................................................23 G. INTERNATIONAL INTERESTS................................................................26 1. The United States ...............................................................................26 2. The Soviet Union................................................................................28 H. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................29 III. THE ROOT CAUSES OF THE WAR.....................................................................31 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................31 B. INDIVIDUAL LEVEL ..................................................................................31 C. NATIONAL LEVEL .....................................................................................33 1. Nation-State Building in Eritrea.......................................................33 2. Diversionary War...............................................................................34 3. Public Perception ...............................................................................35 4. Economic Tensions.............................................................................36 5. Political Tensions/Ethnicity...............................................................40 6. Nature of the Regimes .......................................................................40 D. INTERNATIONAL LEVEL.........................................................................41 E. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................44 IV. CONFLICT RESOLUTION ATTEMPTS..............................................................45 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................45 B. THE U.S-RWANDA PEACE PLAN............................................................46 C. THE ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY’S EFFORT ...................48 D. THE UN EFFORT .........................................................................................50