Africa Energy Outlook 2019 World Energy Outlook Special Report Africa Energy Outlook 2019 www.iea.org/africa2019 World Energy Outlook Special Report Africa Energy Outlook - Cover Layout.indd 4 31-10-2019 17:09:18 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines IEA member IEA the full spectrum countries: association of energy issues including oil, gas countries: and coal supply and Australia demand, renewable Austria Brazil energy technologies, Belgium China electricity markets, energy efficiency, Canada India access to energy, Czech Republic Indonesia demand side Denmark Morocco management and Estonia Singapore much more. Through its work, the IEA Finland South Africa advocates policies France Thailand that will enhance Germany the reliability, Greece affordability and sustainability of Hungary energy in its 30 Ireland member countries, Italy 8 association Japan countries and beyond. Korea Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom Please note that this United States publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The The European terms and conditions are available online at Commission also www.iea.org/t&c/ participates in the Source: IEA. All rights work of the IEA reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Classic Page 1.indd 1 21-10-2019 10:53:41 Classic Page 1_A4.indd 1 21-10-2019 10:55:38 Foreword As Africa’s population rapidly expands and urbanises, its need for reliable and sustainable energy supply will become greater than ever. This energy is needed not only to drive the continent’s economic development but also to provide modern energy services to the large numbers of Africans currently living without them. Africa is set to emerge as a key driver of global energy demand growth, one that is home to abundant reserves of fossil fuels, solar power and minerals that will be vital for clean energy transitions worldwide. And even though Africa has produced just 2% of global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, the continent is disproportionately on the front line when it comes to the effects of the world’s changing climate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has long paid close attention to Africa’s energy sector. We have been working on energy access issues on the continent for nearly two decades, notably through our pioneering analysis in the World Energy Outlook series. This new special report is significant in its unrivalled breadth and depth, with a particularly granular focus on sub-Saharan countries. Africa’s growing urban populations will require ever more energy to power industrial production, air conditioning and expanding use of transport. In our Stated Policies Scenario, based on current and announced policies, African energy demand grows twice as fast as the global average over the next two decades. That includes an additional 500 million people who are expected to live in areas requiring some form of cooling. Despite a shift to modern and more efficient energy sources over this period, the continent’s current policy settings aren’t enough to put it on track to meet its development needs and provide reliable and modern energy services for all. Effective energy policy choices are essential to deliver Africa’s inclusive growth ambitions (such as those contained in the region’s Agenda 2063 strategic framework), and to help meet other major sustainable energy and development goals. This is why we introduce the Africa Case in this report, a new scenario built around Africa’s own vision for its future. It incorporates the policies needed to develop the continent’s energy sector in a way that allows economies to grow strongly, sustainably and inclusively. Doing so does not mean African economies have to become ever more energy intensive. Africa stands on the cusp of a unique opportunity: the possibility of becoming the first continent to develop its economy primarily by using energy efficiency, renewables and natural gas – all of which offer huge untapped potential and economic benefits. For example, Africa has the richest solar resources on the planet, but has installed only 5 gigawatts of solar photovoltaics (PV), accounting for less than 1% of global capacity. With the right policies, solar could become one of the continent’s top energy sources. Natural gas, meanwhile, is likely to correspond well with Africa’s industrial growth drive and need for reliable electricity supply. Today, the share of gas in sub-Saharan Africa’s energy mix is among the lowest in the world. But that could be about to change, especially considering the supplies the continent has at its disposal: it is home to more than 40% of global gas IEA. All rights reserved. Foreword 3 discoveries so far this decade. Africa’s rich natural resources aren’t limited to sunshine and other energy sources. Its major reserves of minerals such as cobalt and platinum that are crucial for clean energy technologies mean the continent holds the key ingredients for global energy transitions. This Africa Energy Outlook contains quantitative analysis of important factors influencing energy development in Africa. This includes detailed modelling of 11 sub-Saharan countries that enabled us to produce comprehensive, data-rich profiles from which we extracted important implications for Africa and the world. The profiles are a notable highlight of the report, providing a much greater level of detail than any other analysis of energy in Africa. This report comes at an important time in the IEA’s deepening engagement with Africa. It reflects the continent’s increasing role in global energy affairs and the strengthening relationships between African energy decision makers and the IEA. South Africa and Morocco are now part of the IEA family. In May 2018, the IEA and the African Union Commission co-hosted their first joint ministerial summit at which African Union Commissioner Dr Amani Abou-Zeid and I signed a strategic Memorandum of Understanding to guide the two organisations’ future collaborations. A second ministerial forum will be held in 2020. I hope this new report serves as both an anchor for our new programme of work with African countries and also as a means to guide the continent towards a more secure and sustainable energy future. Dr. Fatih Birol Executive Director International Energy Agency IEA. All rights reserved. 4 Africa Energy Outlook 2019 | Special Report Acknowledgements This study was prepared by the World Energy Outlook (WEO) team in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) in co-operation with other directorates and offices of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller. Stéphanie Bouckaert, Tae-Yoon Kim, and Kieran McNamara were the principal authors. Tim Gould, Head of Division for Energy Supply and Investment Outlooks, provided essential guidance. The other main authors were: Lucila Arboleya Sarazola (investment), Yasmine Arsalane (power), Arthur Contejean (energy access), Timothy Goodson (electricity demand and buildings) and Molly A. Walton (resource management). Other key contributors were: Thibaut Abergel (cities), Zakia Adam (country profiles, data management), Ali Al-Saffar (urbanisation and industrialisation), Bipasha Baruah (gender), Michela Cappannelli (biogas), Haoua Cisse Coulibaly (policies), Davide D’Ambrosio (country profiles, data management and visualisations), Amrita Dasgupta (transport), Chiara Delmastro (cooling), Marina Dos Santos (policies), John Dulac (cooling), Jinsun Lim (climate impact on hydro), Luis Munuera (visualisation), Paweł Olejarnik (supply modelling), Apostolos Petropoulos (transport), Andrew Prag (climate impact on hydro), Arnaud Rouget (energy access), Marcela Ruiz De Chavez Velez (industry), Andreas Schröder (industry) and Wilfred Yu (power). The study also relied on support from across the entire WEO team. Teresa Coon and Eleni Tsoukala provided essential support. Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility. Debra Justus was the copy-editor. The IEA is especially grateful to H.E. Dr. Kandeh Yumkella for valuable input and guidance throughout the project. Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director of STO, provided guidance throughout the project. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA. In particular, Paul Simons, Nick Johnstone, Laszlo Varro, Peter Fraser, Brian Motherway, Rebecca Gaghen, Alessandro Blasi and Joel Couse. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communication and Digitalisation Office for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Astrid Dumond, Jon Custer, Christopher Gully, Isabelle Nonain Semelin and Sabrina Tan. Diana Browne and Ivo Letra provided essential support to the production process. IEA’s Office of the Legal Counsel, Office of Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout the preparation of the report. Uğur Öcal and Ryszard Pośpiech also provided support. Valuable input to the analysis was provided by David Wilkinson (independent consultant), Emmanouil Christinakis (independent consultant), Dr. Andriannah Mbandi (Stockholm Environment Institute), Jacqueline Senyagwa (University of Cape Town), Andreas Sahlberg, Babak Khavari, Alexandros Korkovelos and Mark Howells (KTH Swedish Royal Institute of IEA. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements 5 Technology), Jose Ignacio Perez-Arriaga, Fernando de Cuadra-García,