Ministry of Envrionment and Physical Planning of the Republic of Macedonia United Nations Development Programme Project 00075206 “Third National Report to UNFCCC” Project report Climate change vulnerability in Biodiversity sector Melovski Ljupčo, Matevski Vlado, Hristovski Slavčo Institute of Biology, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Skopje, 2013 2 Contents 1 National Circumstances related to climate change vulnerability in Biodiversity Sector ................ 5 1.1 Introduction – climate change and Biodiversity Sector ................................................................ 5 1.1.1 Climate change vulnerability in Biodiversity Sector........................................................ 5 1.1.2 Climate change adaptation in Biodiversity Sector .......................................................... 7 1.2 Overview of Biodiversity Sector .................................................................................................... 7 1.2.1 Characteristics ................................................................................................................. 7 1.2.2 Major stakeholders ....................................................................................................... 15 1.2.3 Sector documents ......................................................................................................... 17 1.2.4 Data availability ............................................................................................................. 20 1.3 Review of recent research and other projects ........................................................................... 21 1.3.1 Scientific projects .......................................................................................................... 21 1.3.2 Conservation and applicative projects .......................................................................... 21 1.3.3 Invasive species ............................................................................................................. 24 1.4 National protected areas ............................................................................................................ 25 1.5 International obligations ............................................................................................................. 28 1.5.1 UNFCCC and other international conventions .............................................................. 28 1.5.2 EU .................................................................................................................................. 30 1.5.3 Other ............................................................................................................................. 30 1.6 Policy and Legislation .................................................................................................................. 31 1.6.1 Protection of species ..................................................................................................... 32 1.6.2 Protection of habitats/ecosystems ............................................................................... 34 1.6.3 Protected areas and ecological networks ..................................................................... 34 1.6.4 Nature impact assessment ............................................................................................ 36 1.7 References .................................................................................................................................. 36 1.7.1 General references ........................................................................................................ 36 1.7.2 Additional literature ...................................................................................................... 37 2 Methodology, Tools and Indicators .............................................................................................. 41 2.1 Overview of methods .................................................................................................................. 42 2.1.1 Species .......................................................................................................................... 42 2.1.2 Communities ................................................................................................................. 44 2.1.3 Ecosystems, biomes and refugial sites .......................................................................... 45 2.2 Proposed methodology for TNC ................................................................................................. 47 3 2.2.1 Species and communities to be modelled .................................................................... 47 2.2.2 Modelling software (MaxEnt) for shift in distribution ranges of species and communities ................................................................................................................................. 48 2.2.3 Ecosystem modelling .................................................................................................... 49 2.3 Indicators for monitoring of biodiversity vulnerability ............................................................... 49 2.4 References .................................................................................................................................. 50 3 Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment of Biodiversity ........................................ 57 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 57 3.2 Vulnerability assessment ............................................................................................................ 57 3.2.1 Short review of the assessment in SNC ........................................................................ 58 3.2.2 Protected areas and species distributions .................................................................... 76 3.2.3 Biocorridors ................................................................................................................. 104 3.2.4 Distribution of alien species, pathogens and parasites .............................................. 107 3.2.5 Relation between climate change indicators and population trends of target species and habitats ................................................................................................................................ 107 3.2.6 Changes in phenology ................................................................................................. 109 3.2.7 Impacts of the increased atmospheric CO2 on ecosystems ........................................ 110 3.2.8 Modelling .................................................................................................................... 111 3.3 References ................................................................................................................................ 126 4 Action plan for climate change adaptation in biodiversity sector .............................................. 129 4.1 Identified problems ................................................................................................................... 129 4.2 Short gap analyses of the implementation of the Action Plan of Second National Communication ......................................................................................................................................... 130 4.3 Action plan ................................................................................................................................ 131 4 1 National Circumstances related to climate change vulnerability in Biodiversity Sector (Melovski Ljupčo*, Matevski Vlado*, Hristovski Slavčo*) 1.1 Introduction – climate change and Biodiversity Sector Global climate change will have and has a significant impact on different environmental components. Biological diversity, as the most dynamic environmental segment, is constantly exposed to the climate change impact and it reacts according to its own adaptation capacity. The direction of adaptations, migrations and successions of different biodiversity components at a certain area or region depends on many factors. Above all, these are heterogeneity, differentiation, zonation, richness and complexity and similar parameters of particular biodiversity components. The Republic of Macedonia has specific geographic position on Balkan Peninsula where different climatic influences (continental and Mediterranean) on a small area in separate parts of the country intertwine. In combination with other ecological and historic factors they have led to development of a specific and very rich biological diversity. Beside its intrinsic value, biodiversity in Macedonia has other values, especially economic, and it provides a lot of goods and services. In that sense, we try to assess and find explanation for the impact of the current global climate changes on the most sensitive components of flora, vegetation and fauna in this report. These assessments are mostly based on habitat and species modelling, but expert judgment was also an important approach due to the lack of data and continual monitoring of biodiversity components. All available data on climate parameters were taken into consideration in the assessment. 1.1.1 Climate change vulnerability in Biodiversity Sector Biodiversity is recognised to be one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change globally. It is an important