.l ! f,l t*, :b08 2? ,l4Lb W"lfi"e t .lr BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS HOUSING MARKET as of October l,1966 T:;::fi,RItt:H 001 i ? 1967 I1; A Rcport by thc .-r DEPARTMENT OF HOUSING AND URBAN DEVETOPMENT FED ERAL HOUS I NG ADMINISTRATION WASH|NGTON, D. C.20111 Octo ber 19 67 a ANALYSIS OF THE BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS HOUSING MARKET AS 0F 0CTOBER 1r 1966 DEPARTMENT OF HOIJSINI AND URBAN DEVELC,lMII1I LI3I?AR\,' wASflrNGTON, D,C, 20410 00] i ? 1967 Field Market Analysis Service Federal Housing Administration Department of Housing and Urban Development J Foreuord As a p.rbtlc senrlce to aeelat local houetng activiEles through clearer underetandtng of local housing market condlEions, FIIA lnlElaEed publlcatlon of ltB comPrehenelve housing rnarket analyses early tn 1965. Whtle each report ls deelgned specifically for FtlA use 1n adnlnlEterlng lts morEgage lnsurance oPeratlon6' 1t ls expected thaE the factual lnforrnatlon and Ehe ftndings and conclualons of t,hese reportc wlll be generally useful also to bulldere, Dortgagees, and oEhere concerned wiEh Iocal housing problena and to others having an lnterest ln Local economtc con- dtttono end trende. Slnce acrlcet analyois ls not an exact sclence, Ehe judgmenEal factor tc lnportanE ln the developent of findings and conclusions, There wtll be dlfferencee of oplnton, of courser in the lnter- preEctlon of avallabLe factual lnformaElon ln determlning the absorptlve capacity of the market and the requiremenEs for main- t,enance of a reaeonable balance ln demand-supply relatlonships. The factual'franework for each analysls ls developed as Ehoroughly as poaetble on the basle of lnformation available from both local and natloul aourcee. Unlees epcelflcally identifled by source reference, all estlnatea and Judgmente ln the analyate are those of the authorlng analyet and the FflA HarkeE Analysls and Research Sectton, a ) TabIe of ContenEs Page Summary and Conclusions i a Housing Market Area 1 Map of Area 3 Economy of the Area Character and History 4 Employment 5 Principal Employers 7 Mi 1 i tary Instal lations 9 Unemployment It FuEure Employment 11 Income t2 Demographic Factors Population t4 Househo lds I5 Housing Market Factors Housing Supply I.8 Residential Building Activity 20 Tenure of 0ccupancy 23 Vacancy 23 Sales Market 25 Rental Market 28 Urban Renewal Activity 29 Military Housing 29 Public Housing 30 Demand for Housing 32 Area Summaries 34 Central Submarket 34 Northern Submarket 50 Western Submarket Southern 60 Submarket 59 Elderly Housing 79 Nursing Homes 83 AXALYSIS OF IIIE BOSIOI. I{ASSAGIUSETTS . HOUSING UARXET AS OF OCTOBEI, 1 L966 Sunmary and Concl,Uqlonq - 1 A steady upward trend ln enplolmenE in the Boston Houeing Market Area stnce 1960 has been accentuated ln the more recent years. Ilage and ealary employment lncreaced frorn a nnonEhly average of 1rO78r50O workers tn 1960 to 1,145,0OO workers in 1955. Of the over-all gain of 57,6@ workers in this six-year period, 45,5OO workers (57 percent) were added ln Ehe last ttro years. Addltional lncresaes ln the flret seven nonths of 1955 lndlcate that the average for the year wlll approach or equal Ehe epectacular 35,2oO-job gain ln 1955. An unemploynent rate of only 3.8 percenE of the total work force in the first seven monthe of Ehis year lndlcates that 1966 1111 probably eet a new low for the 196Ots. Employ- ment in the next two years ls expected to lncrease at about 2O,OOO jobs a year. 2 Itre current median annual lncome for all fanilles, after federal lncome tax deductlons, ls eetluated at $8r3OO. By October 1, 1958 thls median is expected to reach $81780. Over the sane trrc-year perlod, the rnedian annual incone of renter houeeholde of tyo or more persons ls expected to lncrease from the current $6r910 to $7,3OO. 3 ltre populatlon of the Boston HllA ae of 0ctober 1, 1966 ls estlnated aE 2r724rffi, an Lncrease of more than 128,500 (flve percent) slnce Ehe 1960 centua. ltrls lncrease representa a neE growth since 1960 of 19,775 a year as compared vith 18,100 a year in the prevlous decade. By October 1, 1958 the populatlon ls expected to lncrease by 27,4OO a year to reach a total of 21778,8OO. Ttre current estlmate of 839,2O0 households represents an increase of alnost 57,1@, or 1O,3OO a year, since the laet censuE. The growth ln the next trrc yeare le expected Eo be about L4,925 households a year. 4 the 839r2OO unlts comprielng the currenE houslng inventory reflect a net addltlon of 671325 unitg clnce April 1950, or an average annual lncreuent of 1Or35O units. A net additlon of 85,725 unlts Ehrough nerr construction and converilone was offseE by a lose of 19,4OO units through urban renewal, htghway constructlon, and other causea. ltre proportlon of owner-occupied units tncreased slightly frorn 52.3 percent in 1950 to a current 52.5 percent. 5 Ttre 4,OOO vacant unlts avallable for sale and 12,8OO avallable for renE establlsh current homeowner and rental vacancy raEes of 0.9 percenE and 3. 1 percent, respectlvely. 1l 6 An annual demand for l7r9OO new units over the next two years will arise from the anticipated growth in the area and requirements for replacement of demolition losses. The demand includes 8,2OO single- family units and 9,7OO multifamily units. The multifamily demand includes lr77O units of middIe-income housing which can be supplied only through below-market-interest-rate financing or assistance in b land acquisition or cost. This demand estimate does not include public low-rent housing or rent-supplement accommodations. 7 The demand for 8,2O0 single-family units a year is distributed by price class in the housing demand section of each of the submarket summaries. Likewise, the submarket summaries contain distributions, by gross monthly rents and unit size, of the demand fot 7r93O units of multifamity housing achievable wi thout below-markeE-interest-rate financing or other public benefits. 8 The demand for housing for independent living among elderly Persons is predominantly at rents achievable only in public housing. The annual over-al1 demand for 9r7OO multifamily units, however, includes an undetermined number which wi I I be absorbed by the older segment of the population. The demand for projects designed especially for the elderly is limited to about 3OO a year during Ehe next two years and should be undertaken only when Patronage can reasonably be assured. the nation in the number 9 The Boston area ranks among the highest in ofnursinghomebedsinrelationtoitspopulation.Inviewofsome or pro- lr250 ,,r.Ii.,g home accommodations currentty under construction posear"r,"rr.,raldemandfor2OOnewbedsinthenexttwoyearsisin- dicated. This demand is in addition to the requirements for modern- 10r45O existing accommodaEions to bring them uP to izLng or replacing pro- the iligh srandards set for participation in the Federal medicare 8r€Im. ANALYSIS OF II{E BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS HOUSING I'IARKET fs !F ocToBER 1, L966 Housing Market Area For the purpose of this analysis, the Boston Housing Market Area (Hl,lA) is defined as coextensive with the Boston SEandard Metropolitan StaEistical Area as presently defined. The 17 cities and bl towns which cornprise the HI'IA occupy Suffolk County in its ent.irety and parts of Essex, Middlesex, Norfolk, and Plymouth CounEies. Since the 196O Census, Ehe Bureau of the Budget has extended the area to include the tourns of Sherborn (Middlesex County) and Millis (Norfolk County). As currentty defined, the area had a 1960 population of 2,575,48t, with the city of Boston accounting for 697,197, or 27 percent, of the total. Bounded on the east by Massachusetts Bay, the area is contiguous to the Lawrence-Haverill and LowelI SEandard Metropolitan Statistical Areas on the north and Brockton and Providence on the south. The Hl'lA has four harbors capable of handling ocean and coastwise ships. The largest, that of Boston, is one of the best deep water harbors in the world. Ihe other three harbors are Fore River, Back River (boEh in geymouth), and Salem. The three major railroads of the area are the tsoston and Albany Division of the New York central, the Boston and Maine, and the New york, New Haven, and Hartford. l'Iajor highways extend from the center of the area in a spoke-like pattern, Eied together by Route 128, a limited access circumferent.ial route from Gloucester to Hingham. The Massachusetts Turnpike (Interstate 90) e><tends westward from downtown Boston to the New York State line at West Stockbridee, where it connects with the New York Thruway. Interstate 95 (not completedj runs from Salisbury at the New Hampshire line to Att.Leboro at the Rhode Island line and includes the Northeast Expresshray from Boston to Revere. U.S. Route 1 passes through Boston on its way from Maine to Key West, Florida. U.S. Route 2O comes from Albany, New York and terminates in Boston. These highways are supPlemented by a system of state routes that provide for adequate lntrastate travel and intersEate connections. Interstate Route 695, an inner belt, is in early stages of development and will circle west, from the Charlestown section of Boston through Somerville, Cambridge, and Brookline to the Roxbury section of Boston. E The Logan Internatlonal Airport provides faciliEies for major national and internatlonal airllnes. Located on 2rooo acres of filled-in land extending into Boston Harbor, it is only ten minutes driving time from the center of Boston and may be reached on the Boston subway. 2 Several hundred trucking firms provide local and long-distance freight service. Passenger service is provided by 37 interstate and local bus companies.