Reducing A FrAmework For Action Nuclear Risks e dited by Steve AndreASen in Europe And iSAbelle williAmS Featured essay: “the race between ­Cooperation and catastrophe” by sam NuNN Reducing Nuclear Risks in Europe a FrameWork For acTIoN Edit eD by STeve aNDreaSeN aND ISabelle WIllIamS Featured essay: “The race between ­Cooperation and catastrophe” by sam NuNN Nuclear ThreaT INITIaTIve Washington, D.c. t he Nuclear threat INItIatIve NTI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization with a mission to strengthen global security by reducing the risk of use and preventing the spread of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, and to work to build the trust, transparency, and security that are preconditions to the ultimate fulfillment of the Non-Proliferation Treaty’s goals and ambitions. www.nti.org The views expressed in this publication are the authors’ own and do not reflect those of NTI, its Board of Directors, or other institutions with which the authors are associated. © 2011 the Nuclear Threat Initiative All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval sys- tem, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without written permission of the publisher and copyright holder. c over phoTo oF a u.S. aIr Force F-16 FIghTINg FalcoN aIrcraFT courTeSy oF The u.S. aIr Force. phoTo by maSTer SgT. WIllIam greer/releaSeD. ii T able oF coNTeNTS Acknowledgments v Authors and Reviewers vii summary coNteNt executive summary: Reassembling a More Credible NATO Nuclear Policy and Posture 1 Joan Rohlfing, Isabelle Williams, and Steve Andreasen featured essay: The Race Between Cooperation and Catastrophe 8 Sam Nunn chaPters 1. NATO Nuclear Policy: Reflections on Lisbon and Looking Ahead to the DDPR 24 Simon Lunn 2. Words That Matter? NATO Declaratory Policy and the DDPR 52 Malcolm Chalmers 3. The Security of NATO Nuclear Weapons: Issues and Implications 66 Robertus C.N. Remkes 4. Options for NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements 76 Karl-Heinz Kamp and Robertus C.N. Remkes 5. NATO Reassurance and Nuclear Reductions: Creating the Conditions 96 Hans Binnendijk and Catherine McArdle Kelleher 6. Interlinked: Assurance, Russia, and Further Reductions of Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons 118 Catherine McArdle Kelleher 7. Reconciling Limitations on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, Conventional Arms Control, and Missile Defense Cooperation 134 Robert H. Legvold 8. A Russian Perspective on the Challenge of U.S., NATO, and Russian Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons 152 Alexei Arbatov 9. Worlds Apart: NATO and Asia's Nuclear Future 172 Jonathan D. Pollack iii Author Biographies 185 Other Nuclear Threat Initiative Reports 190 About the Nuclear Threat Initiative 190 iv akc NoWleDgmeNTS The Editors would like to express gratitude to the many people who provided sup- port for this report, offered comments on its contents, and assisted in its editing, proofreading, and design. Very special thanks are due to the chapter authors Simon Lunn, Malcolm Chalmers, Robertus C.N. Remkes, Karl-Heinz Kamp, Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Hans Binnendijk, Robert Legvold, Alexei Arbatov and Jonathan Pollack—for their individual and joint efforts, which have been invaluable to this project and will soon be invaluable to this debate. We would also like to thank the reviewers who contributed their time and exper- tise to assess the content of the chapters and helped the authors improve it: Bruno Tertrais, Scott Sagan, Klaus Naumann, Hans Kristensen, Harald Müeller, Oliver Thräenert, Jan Kavan, Tomas Valasek, among others. Thanks are also offered to Ambassador Ivo H. Daalder, U.S. Permanent Rep- resentative to NATO, and the staff at the U.S. Mission to NATO for their help in arranging a trip to NATO by the editors, Joan Rohlfing, and Senator Sam Nunn in May 2011. We also thank the many NATO diplomats and delegation members who took time to meet with us during the trip. We would like to acknowledge our colleagues at NTI who contributed to the coordination and production of this publication, including Jayne Brady. Finally, we would like to express our appreciation to the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and the Carnegie Corporation of New York for their support of the Nuclear Security Project. S ATEVE NDREASEN AND ISABELLE WILLIAMS v vi a uThorS ND revIeWerS a uthors Steve Andreasen, National Security Consultant, Nuclear Threat Initiative, and Lecturer, Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota Dr. Alexei Arbatov, Head of Center for International Security, Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and Chair, Nonproliferation Program, Carnegie Moscow Center Dr. Hans Binnendijk, Vice President, Research and Applied Learning, and Theodore Roosevelt Chair in National Security Policy, National Defense University Professor Malcolm Chalmers, Director, Research and U.K. Defense Policy at the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies Dr. Karl-Heinz Kamp, Director, Research Division, NATO Defense College, Rome Professor Catherine McArdle Kelleher, Professor Emeritus, Naval War College, Rhode Island, and Senior Fellow, Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University Professor Robert Legvold, Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus, Columbia University, and Director, Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative Simon Lunn, Associate Fellow, Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security Studies Sam Nunn, former U.S. Senator, Co-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nuclear Threat Initiative Dr. Jonathan D. Pollack, Senior Fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution Major General Robertus C.N. Remkes, (USAF, Ret.) former Director, Air Component Coordination Element, Air Force Central Command, Kabul, Afghanistan Joan Rohlfing, President and Chief Operating Officer, Nuclear Threat Initiative Isabelle Williams, Senior Program Officer, Nuclear Threat Initiative vii rv e Iewers Jan Kavan, former Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Affairs Minister of the Czech Republic, and former President of the UN General Assembly Hans M. Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists Professor Harald Müeller, Director, Peace Research Institute Frankfurt, and Professor of International Relations Goethe University, Frankfurt, Germany General (Ret) Dr. h.c. Klaus Naumann, Vice President, German Atlantic Association, Member, European Leadership Network, Former Chief of Staff, Bundeswehr, the German armed forces, and former Chairman NATO Military Committee Professor Scott D. Sagan, Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Stanford University, and Senior Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation and the Freeman Spogli Institute Dr. Bruno Tertrais, Senior Research Fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique Dr. Oliver Thräenert, Senior Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs Tomas Valasek, Director, Foreign Policy and Defense, Center for European Reform viii e xecutIve summary Reassembling a More Credible NATO Nuclear Policy and Posture Joan Rohlfing, isabelle Williams, and steve andReasen n January 2007, George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn wrote the first in a series of essays published in the Wall Street Jour- Inal calling for a global effort to reduce reliance on nuclear weapons, prevent their spread into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately end them as a threat to the world. One of the important steps they proposed to reduce nucle- ar dangers was to start a dialogue, including within NATO and with Russia, on consolidating the nuclear weapons designed for forward deployment to enhance their security, and as a first step toward careful accounting for them and their eventual elimination.1 Accomplishing this task will require careful thought and coordinated action within both NATO and Russia, as well as a strategy for engagement between them—the subject of former Senator Sam Nunn's featured essay for this report. To assist in developing such an approach and as a direct contribution to the ongo- ing NATO Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR), the Nuclear Threat Initiative commissioned a series of nine policy papers authored and reviewed by a distinguished group of international experts. This collection of papers on NATO nuclear policy analyzes policy and force structure options open to NATO mem- bers and aims to promote dialogue and new thinking on several key issues and questions, including: ▶ Can/should NATO’s nuclear declaratory policy be modified to further reduce the role of nuclear weapons in NATO security policy consistent with the recent changes to U.S. and U.K. declaratory policy? 1. George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, “Toward A Nuclear-Free World,” The Wall Street Journal, January 15, 2008. 1 Joa N rohlFINg, ISabelle WIllIamS, aND STeveN p. aNDreaSeN ▶ What are the security concerns and related risks associated with NATO’s existing nuclear posture, and how can these concerns and risks be reduced? ▶ Are the current nuclear sharing arrangements sustainable in the long term for NATO members, and what are the alternatives that maintain wide participation in nuclear operations and planning? ▶ What reassurance measures are required for NATO members and partners consistent with the new NATO Strategic Concept, and what are the benefits and risks involved? ▶ What are the next steps in U.S./NATO–Russia discussions and cooperation on non-strategic