N° 06bis/2009 recherches & documents Air and space power and security in the 21st century DR. JEAN-JACQUES PATRY Research fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique PHILIPPE GROS Research fellow, Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique WWW . FRSTRATEGIE . ORG AIR AND SPACE POWER AND SECURITY IN THE 21 ST CENTURY RECHERCHES & DOCUMENTS Édité et diffusé par la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique 27 rue Damesme – 75013 PARIS ISSN : 1966-5156 ISBN : 978-2-911101-47-2 EAN : 9782911101472 Fondation pour la Rec he rche Stratégique 2 Contents ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION : PURPOSES AND METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH OF THE STUDY ......................... 9 1.1.1 – Rising Interest of Air and Space Power in Expanding Domains of International Security ................................................................................................ 9 1.1.2 – Consequently, Military Capabilities, Including Aerospace Power Have to Address Objectives of New Security Policies ............................................................ 9 1.1.3 – Purpose of this Study: Defining a Catalog of Aerospace Power Postures ........11 1.1.4 – Aerospace Postures Reveal Tailored Capabilities Responding to Specific Operational Requirements ..........................................................................11 1.1.5 – A Method of Analysis Based on Comparative Case Studies ............................12 PART I – AIR AND SPACE POWER IN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT ......13 1 – THE AEROSPACE POWER CHALLENGE ; MAINTAINING A HIGH EFFICIENCY IN ALL FORMS OF OPERATIONAL ENGAGEMENTS .....................................................................14 1.1 – An International Dilemma. .................................................................................14 1.1.1 – Establishing an International Order within a New Hierarchy of Powers ............15 1.1.2 – And Containing Forces of World Disintegration ................................................15 1.2 – Facing Smart Asymmetrical Systems ...............................................................16 1.2.1 – Nurtured by Globalization Opportunities and World Deregulation .....................16 1.2.2 – Shaped for Optimizing One or Several Forms of Collective Violence in Support of Their Goals .............................................................................................17 1.3 – GWOT: A General Framework for Air and Space Engagements ....................18 1.3.1 – A Comprehensive Strategy for Combating Terrorism .......................................18 1.3.2 – The Four Challenges and the Way to Hybrid Warfare ......................................19 2 – CURRENT PARADIGMS FOR THE AIR AND SPACE POWER ..................................................20 2.1 – Precision .............................................................................................................20 2.2 – Parallel Warfare ..................................................................................................22 2.3 – The Effects-Based Operations ..........................................................................23 2.4 – Air and Space Power Planning and Operations Processes ............................25 2.5 – Air and Space Power Flexibility .........................................................................26 Fondation pour la R echerche Stratégique 3 AIR AND SPACE POWER AND SECURITY IN THE 21 ST CENTURY RECHERCHES & DOCUMENTS 2.6 – Air Power as a Key Contributor to the Defeat Mechanisms of an Adversary ..................................................................................................28 2.6.1 – Defeat Mechanisms: How they Work ...............................................................28 2.6.2 – Air and Space Power as the Main Provider of Fire Projection on Nowadays Battlefields .............................................................................................31 2.6.3 – Conclusion: A Relative Shift in the Primacy of Air and Space Power to Reach Kinetic Effects ...............................................................................................32 2.7 – The Emergence of a Comprehensive Space Power ........................................33 PART II – AIR AND SPACE POWER POSTURES BY GENERIC TYPES OF CAMPAIGN ........................35 1 – CONVENTIONAL CAMPAIGNING .......................................................................................35 1.1 – Seizing the Initiative: The Most Challenging Phase of Conventional Campaigning ......................................................................................................35 1.1.1 – Gaining Air Superiority .....................................................................................36 1.1.2 – Granting Access to the Theater by the Joint Force...........................................37 1.1.3 – Hindering the Offensive of Adversary’s Force ..................................................37 1.2 – Coercion Campaign ............................................................................................38 1.2.1 – Strategic Mechanisms for Coercion .................................................................38 1.2.2 – The Operational Strategy for Coercion .............................................................39 1.2.3 – Reconstitution of a Generic Campaign of Coercion ..........................................41 1.3 – Campaign of Regime Change ............................................................................43 1.4 – Required Capabilities for Conventional Campaigns ........................................43 1.4.1 – Counterair ........................................................................................................43 1.4.2 – Counterland .....................................................................................................45 1.4.3 – Strategic attack ................................................................................................46 1.4.4 – Command and control ......................................................................................47 1.4.5 – Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance ...............................................49 1.4.6 – Information Operations ....................................................................................51 1.4.7 – The Mobility Function .......................................................................................53 1.4.8 – Space Support .................................................................................................54 2 – COUNTERINSURGENCY CAMPAIGN ..................................................................................55 2.1 – Insurgency / Counterinsurgency: Definitions and Characteristics .................55 2.1.1 – The Insurgency: An armed Rebellion Against an Incumbent Government ........55 Fondation pour la R echerche Stratégique 4 AIR AND SPACE POWER AND SECURITY IN THE 21 ST CENTURY RECHERCHES & DOCUMENTS 2.1.2 – Counterinsurgency: A Governmental Strategy to Eradicate People Dissatisfaction ..............................................................................................................56 2.2 – USAF Doctrine for Irregular Warfare .................................................................58 2.2.1 – Key Activities of Irregular Warfare: A USAF Perspective ..................................58 2.2.2 – Air and SpacePower Main Contribution: Reducing the Military Options Left to the Insurgents ...................................................................................................59 2.3 – Air and Space Power Role in Counterinsurgency Strategic Options .............60 2.7.1 – Insurgents Discernible Geographic Footprint: The Threshold of Operational Air and Space Power Efficiency ............................................................60 2.3.1 – Option 1: Preventing the Militarization of a Nascent Insurgency ......................63 2.3.2 – Option 2: Demilitarizing a Mature Insurgency through combat operations ........63 2.4 – The Dilemma of Tactical Strikes in Counterinsurgency ..................................65 2.4.1 – Options for Using Combat Air Power: Retaliation, Attrition or interdiction of Rebel Paramilitary Organization ...............................................................................65 2.4.2 – An Increased Dilemma in Urban Areas ............................................................66 2.4.3 – The Quest for Discriminate Strikes: Technical Solutions ..................................67 2.5 – Providing a Government Adequate Counterinsurgency Air Power Capabilities .........................................................................................................69 3 – MASTERING VIOLENCE CAMPAIGN : STABILIZING A PEACE AGREEMENT ............................72 3.1 – Principles for Peace Support and Mastering Violence Engagements ............72 3.2 – Air Campaign in Support of Mastering Violence Strategy ...............................73 3.3 – Intelligence Required Capabilities ....................................................................74 4 – INTERMEDIATE CONCLUSIONS .........................................................................................76 C2 & ISR .........................................................................................................................76 Effectors .........................................................................................................................76