NIST Special Publication 1130 Reducing the Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities: A Strategic Roadmap to Guide and Prioritize Research Anthony Hamins Jason Averill Nelson Bryner Richard Gann David Butry Rick Davis Francine Amon Jeffrey Gilman Alexander Maranghides William Mell Daniel Madrzykowski Samuel Manzello Jiann Yang Matthew Bundy NIST Special Publication 1130 Reducing the Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities: A Strategic Roadmap to Guide and Prioritize Research Anthony Hamins Jason Averill Nelson Bryner Richard Gann David Butry Rick Davis* Francine Amon1 Jeffrey Gilman2 Alexander Maranghides William Mell3 Daniel Madrzykowski Samuel Manzello Jiann Yang Matthew Bundy Fire Research Division Engineering Laboratory April 2012 U.S. Department of Commerce John E. Bryson, Secretary National Institute of Standards and Technology Patrick D. Gallagher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology, and Director Current address: 1. SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden, Box 857, SE-501 15, Borås, Sweden 2. Materials Measurement Laboratory, NIST, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-6541 3. U.S. Forest Service, 400 N 34th Street, Seattle, WA 98103 Certain commercial entities, equipment, or materials may be identified in this document in order to describe an experimental procedure or concept adequately. Such identification is not intended to imply recommendation or endorsement by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, nor is it intended to imply that the entities, materials, or equipment are necessarily the best available for the purpose. National Institute of Standards and Technology Special Publication 1130 Natl. Inst. Stand. Technol. Spec. Publ. 1130, 171 pages (April 2012) CODEN: NSPUE2 This page intentionally left blank. Abstract The burden of fire on the U.S. economy is significant, comprising approximately $310 billion annually, or about 2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). Over the last 30 years, the number of reported fires, and the number of civilian fire deaths and injuries have decreased due to the efforts of many organizations. On the other hand, the number of civilian deaths and injuries normalized by the number of reported fires has essentially remained flat, while the number of firefighter injuries and fatalities has significantly increased on a per fire basis. Furthermore, the cost of fire protection has increased, and new and potentially costly threats to fire safety are emerging. Consequently, now is an appropriate time to address this continuing problem and consider how best to impel consistent and significant reductions in overall fire losses and costs. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has developed this Roadmap as a response to the national fire problem. This roadmap was developed to provide a shared vision for communication, bring the limited available resources to bear on the U.S. fire burden in a focused and creative manner for enhanced effectiveness, establish a basis for NIST strategic planning, and identify gaps in knowledge and measurement science that hinder the development of critical enabling technologies. NIST’s long-term vision is that unwanted fire be removed as a limitation to life safety, technical innovation, and economic prosperity in the United States. To realize this vision, the long-term goal of the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy is to develop and demonstrate the measurement science that enables a one-third reduction in the nation's preventable fire burden, reducing the impact of fire on communities, structures, their occupants, the fire service, and the economy within a generation. The estimated value of the preventable fire burden is about one-third of the total U.S. fire burden. The preventable fire burden is considered in terms of life safety and societal costs. At the highest level, the problem is analyzed in three parts: fire hazards in buildings, challenges faced by the fire service, and fire spread in wildland-urban interface communities. A series of approaches are proposed to attack problems in each of these three application areas. This roadmap addresses the following questions: • What are the most pressing fire problems? • What are the best ways to attack these problems and reduce the overall U.S. fire burden? In addition, the roadmap addresses more operationally precise questions: • What measurement science is needed to realize the vision of a fire-safe future? • What technologies are needed to most quickly reduce the national fire burden? • What are the metrics to ensure that progress is being achieved? From the answers to these questions, based on input from NIST staff and stakeholders nationwide, a set of strategic research priorities are developed. v Table of Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................................v List of Figures .................................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ...................................................................................................................................... x List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................................................................................. xii Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... xv Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. xviii 1 What This Roadmap is About .....................................................................................................1 1.1 What is a Roadmap?............................................................................................................1 1.2 Why is NIST Developing a Roadmap? ...................................................................................1 1.3 What is Measurement Science? ...........................................................................................2 1.4 Defining Roadmap Components ..........................................................................................2 2 The U.S. Fire Problem .................................................................................................................4 2.1 The Road Traveled: The Historical Fire Problem and Fire Research at NBS/NIST ....................4 2.2 The U.S. Fire Problem Today ................................................................................................9 2.3 Key Drivers of Fire Safety Progress ..................................................................................... 14 2.4 Gaps in Measurement Science ........................................................................................... 17 3 The Road Ahead ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.1 A Vision Statement ............................................................................................................ 19 3.2 The Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Strategy ........................................ 20 3.3 Strategic Focus Area: Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings .......................................................... 22 3.4 Strategic Focus Area: Advanced Fire Service Technologies .................................................. 42 3.5 Strategic Focus Area: Reduced Fire Risk in Wildland-urban Interface Communities ............. 56 3.6 Other Fire Types ................................................................................................................ 68 vi 3.7 Cross-Cutting Strategic Focus Areas ................................................................................... 69 4 Prioritized Outputs and Outcomes for the Reduced Risk of Fire in Buildings and Communities Goal ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 76 4.1 Philosophy ........................................................................................................................ 76 4.2 Strategic Priorities Given Current Resources ...................................................................... 77 4.3 Next Priority Areas Given Additional Resources ................................................................. 86 5 Impact Plan ............................................................................................................................. 94 5.1 Changes to Practice ............................................................................................................ 94 5.2 Standards and Codes strategy ............................................................................................ 94 5.3 Strategy for Reduced Fire Risk in Buildings ......................................................................... 98 5.4 Strategy for Advanced Fire Service Technologies ................................................................ 99 5.5 Strategy for Reduced Risk of Fire Spread at the Wildland-Urban Interface ......................... 102 5.6 Metrics to Measure Progress ............................................................................................ 104 6 Summary ............................................................................................................................... 106 6.1 NIST’s Role ...................................................................................................................... 106 6.2 Collaboration ..................................................................................................................