Future Trends and US National Security Lt Col John T. Ackerman, PhD, Editor USAF, Retired Col Kathleen Mahoney-Norris, PhD, Editor USAFR, Retired Air University Press Air Force Research Institute Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama January 2015 Project Editor Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Belinda L. Bazinet Future trends and US national security / Lt Col John T. Copy Editor Ackerman, PhD, editor, USAF, Retired ; Col Kathleeen Sandi D. Davis Mahoney-Norris, PhD, editor, USAFR, Retired. Cover Art, Book Design, and Illustrations pages cm L. Susan Fair Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-58566-242-5 Daniel Armstrong 1. National security—United States—Forecasting. Composition and Prepress Production 2. Military art and science—Forecasting. 3. Twenty-first Nedra Looney century—Forecasts. I. Ackerman, John T., 1956– II. Mahoney- Norris, Kathleen. Print Preparation and Distribution UA23.F885 2014 Diane Clark 355’.033073—dc23 2014016190 AIR FORCE RESEARCH INSTITUTE AIR UNIVERSITY PRESS Director and Publisher Allen G. Peck Editor in Chief Published by Air University Press in January 2015 Oreste M. Johnson Managing Editor Demorah Hayes Design and Production Manager Cheryl King Air University Press Disclaimer 155 N. Twining St., Bldg. 693 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6026 [email protected] or implied within are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of http://aupress.au.af.mil/ the organizations with which they are associated or the http://afri.au.af.mil/ views of the Air Force Research Institute, Air University, United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any other US government agency. Cleared for public release: distribution unlimited. AFRI Air Force Research Institute ii Contents List of Illustrations v About the Authors vii Preface xi 1 Introduction 1 Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris 2 “Mercenarizing” the US Government 11 Maj Kelvin S. Fan 3 Western Europe’s Future Role in US International Relations 39 Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz 4 Accounting for Human Information Processing 71 Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall 5 Arctic Security: An Adaptive Approach for a Changing Climate 97 Lt Col Christopher S. Kean and Cdr David C. Kneale 6 Catastrophe on the Horizon: Future Effects of Orbital Space Debris 141 Lt Col Jack Donahue 7 Waste to Watts and Water 163 Lt Col Amanda S. Birch 8 How to Fuel the Future of Airpower 193 Maj Yvonne Carrico Gurnick 9 Conclusion 213 Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris iii CONTENTS Appendix A Isotherm Arctic Map 219 Appendix B Sea Ice Melting 221 Appendix C Indigenous Arctic Populations 223 Appendix D Ilulissat Declaration 225 Appendix E Maritime Jurisdiction and Boundaries in the Arctic Region 227 Appendix F Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea 229 Appendix G Applications and Collaboration Partners 231 Appendix H Microbial Fuel Cell Relevance Tree 233 Appendix I Competing and Complementary Microbial Fuel Cell Technologies Biofuels and Biomass 235 Appendix J Key Microbial Fuel Cell Capabilities and Challenges 237 Appendix K Basic Cost Analysis 239 Appendix L Microbial Fuel Cells 243 Appendix M Tech Sheet 245 Abbreviations 249 Bibliography 253 Index 283 iv CONTENTS Illustrations Figure 2.1 Singer’s “tip of the spear” 14 2.2 PMC personnel in USCENTCOM 23 3.1 Regional fertility rates 40 3.2 Changes in working-age populations 42 3.3 Demographic trends affecting Western Europe 43 3.4 EU energy dependency 44 3.5 Scenario thinking process 46 3.6 Example scenario matrix 47 3.7 Scenario matrix for possible futures for Western Europe 57 6.1 Scenario framework example 146 6.2 Complete scenario framework 154 7.1 Microbial fuel cell technology overview 173 8.1 Crude oil imports to the United States 196 8.2 Aviation fuel traits 201 8.3 Performance analysis 201 8.4 Compatibility analysis 205 8.5 Carbon and cost analysis 206 8.6 Source analysis 207 8.7 Storage and transport analysis 207 8.8 Summary of analysis 208 v CONTENTS Table 4.1 Attributes of humans and machines 74 5.1 Criteria Matrixs 129 5.2 Criteria Shortcomings 131 vi About the Authors Lt Col John T. Ackerman, PhD, USAF, retired, is an assistant professor of Political Science at Ashford University. Before this new position, he was an associate professor of national security studies at the USAF’s Air Command and Staff College (ACSC) and the Inter- national Security Studies course director for the ACSC Department of Distance Learning. A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, Dr. Ackerman has held assignments in intercontinental ballistic missile operations and training and has taught professional military educa- tion courses to both company grade and field grade officers. Dr. Ackerman holds a PhD in political science from the University of Alabama and master’s degrees in political science, military opera- tional art and science, and information systems management. His research efforts have included exploration into the relationships between sustainability and security, the international relations im- plications of global climate change, and the impact of selected strategic trends on national security. Dr. Ackerman is published in multi- ple journals, including Technology, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Air and Space Power Journal, Joint Forces Quarterly, and Journal of Peace Research. Lt Col Amanda S. Birch, USAFR, is the commander (individual mobilization augmentee), 4th Civil Engineer Squadron, Seymour Johnson AFB, North Carolina. Colonel Birch is a distinguished graduate of the USAF Academy, where she earned bachelor of science degrees in mechanical engineering and engineering sciences with a French minor. She holds a master of science degree in mechanical engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where she was a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow. She earned a master of military operational art and science as a distinguished graduate of ACSC. Colonel Birch is also a distin- guished graduate of Squadron Officer School and a licensed profes- sional engineer. Her previous assignments include expeditionary engineering at the Air Staff and Air Forces Central Command; civil engineer operations flight commander at Andrews AFB, Maryland; chief of base development at Elmendorf AFB, Alaska; and executive officer at the Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate, Eglin AFB, Florida. vii ABOUT THE AUTHORS Lt Col Jack Donahue, USAF, is currently assigned as a systems acquisition manager with the US Special Operations Command, MacDill AFB, Florida. He has served in several space acquisition positions, including the Education with Industry Program at Honey- well Space Systems, Inc., Clearwater, Florida, as a member of the Space Guidance and Navigation Product Qualification Develop- ment Team. He also served as the Delta IV mission manager for the first operational, largest-ever Air Force heavy-lift rocket mission worth $800 million at the Headquarters Space and Missiles Center, Los Angeles AFB, California. Colonel Donahue holds a bachelor’s degree in aviation management from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, a master’s degree in human resources development from Webster University, and a master’s degree in military operational art and science from ACSC. Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall, USAF, is the commander, 6th Intel- ligence Squadron, Osan AB, Republic of Korea. Colonel Duvall is a distinguished graduate of the USAF Academy, where she earned a bachelor of science degree in political science. She holds a master’s degree in public policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a master of military operational art and science degree as a distinguished graduate of ACSC. Her previous assign- ments include unit, wing, numbered air force, Air Staff, and Joint Staff positions, as well as serving on the faculty of ACSC in the De- partment of International Security and Military Studies. Maj Kelvin S. Fan, Singapore Air Force, was awarded the Singa- pore Armed Forces (SAF) overseas scholarship and read economics at Cambridge University. He went on to graduate with a master’s degree in international and developmental economics from Yale University. He is a ground-based air defense officer by training and has also attended the Air Defense Artillery School in Fort Bliss, Texas. His other published articles include “Will China Attack Taiwan” and “Social Capital: Cultivating This Vital Element for the 3rd Gen- eration SAF” in the SAF’s Pointer magazine. Maj Yvonne Carrico Gurnick, USAF, retired, served in the Air Force from 1998 to 2009 as a C-130 pilot. Her master’s thesis, “The USAF and Alternative Jet Fuel: How to Fuel the Future of Air- power,” was born out of an interest in aviation as well as the envi- ronmental, political, and military implications of US dependence viii ABOUT THE AUTHORS on petroleum. She was honored to receive both the Future Trends Studies Research Award and the Lieutenant General John M. Nowak Award for Logistics from Air University (AU) in 2009. Ms. Gurnick currently lives in Clovis, New Mexico, with her husband. Lt Col Christopher S. Kean, USAF, is the commander of De- tachment 10, Training Support Squadron, for Air Combat Com- mand. He is a senior navigator and flies as an electronic warfare officer aboard the RC-135S Cobra Ball, operating out of Offutt AFB, Nebraska. Colonel Kean holds a bachelor of science in engineering sciences from the USAF Academy, a master of arts in French lan- guage, literature, and civilization from Middlebury College, and a master of arts in military operational art and science from AU. He has served as an exchange officer to the Canadian Forces School of Aerospace Studies in Winnipeg, Manitoba, where he was the chief of Electronic Warfare Training, and taught French to cadets at the USAF Academy, achieving the academic rank of assistant professor. Colonel Kean has served, flown, and commanded aerial reconnais- sance missions worldwide and is a distinguished graduate of ACSC.