Report of the UN Economist Network for the UN 75th Anniversary Shaping the Trends Cover3_photo_credit: © Photo Credit here. of Our Time SEPTEMBER 2020 IN SUPPORT OF Report of the UN Economist Network for the UN 75th Anniversary Shaping the Trends of Our Time SEPTEMBER 2020 Foreword In the last 75 years the global community has Because these megatrends exert a pervasive reached levels of prosperity unimaginable influence on the SDGs, achieving the just two generations ago. In this time, Goals depends critically on the success global poverty has substantially declined, of policy interventions to shape them. and people everywhere are living longer and healthier lives. Yet the achievements Decades in the making, the megatrends have been remarkably unbalanced. Gains cannot be easily undone or changed in any in prosperity have almost always come significant way in the immediate term. But they at the cost of environmental degradation are the result of human activity, and therefore and damage, and they have also been they can be shaped over time by consistent unequally shared, with many people and policies. And because each megatrend also countries that escaped extreme poverty affects the other megatrends, reinforcing at constant risk of slipping back. or counteracting them, policy interventions in one area can generate positive and The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development mutually reinforcing impacts in another. with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) offers a blueprint for prosperity, The COVID-19 crisis has not only dimmed people and planet that addresses these prospects for achieving the 2030 Agenda, deficiencies. But the Agenda is already off- but also affects each of the megatrends. At track. The devastating impacts of the COVID- the same time, the crisis offers a powerful 19 crisis have further diminished prospects opportunity to recover better and tackle difficult for achieving the SDGs, with the greatest issues that will be instrumental in putting the adverse impacts falling on countries and megatrends on a positive course for the future. people least able to protect themselves, and already at greatest risk of being left behind. This report draws four key conclusions for effective policymaking to steer the megatrends The pandemic comes at a time when several in the right directions. First, policies should build megatrends are defining the course of progress on the causal links among the megatrends. towards sustainable development. This report Second, interventions with regressive effects focuses on five of the most important: climate in another area should be avoided. Third, change; demographic shifts, particularly coordinated and well-sequenced interventions in population ageing; urbanization; the emergence different areas can exploit potential co-benefits of digital technologies; and inequalities. and generate greater positive impacts. And II REPORT OF UN ECONOMIST NETWORK FOR THE UN 75TH ANNIVERSARY fourth, effective policymaking requires balancing We live in a world of hope and possibility, trade-offs between gains and losses. and enormous achievement. We can build on what has been accomplished, but also Dealing with climate change requires a shape new directions, realizing what has been global effort. No individual country can promised to make a better future for all. determine the course of this megatrend on its own. The other four megatrends can be decisively shaped by national policies, but global coordination and joint efforts can contribute to more significant and positive changes, underscoring the vital importance Liu Zhenmin of multilateral consensus and collaboration. Under-Secretary-General United Nations Department of As we celebrate the past 75 years of the Economic and Social Affairs United Nations and look forward, it is clear that the United Nations must play a central role in helping to guide the megatrends in line with the commitments made in the 2030 Agenda. The United Nations can support governments to frame responses that encourage domestic political consensus around sustained action, including through critical partnerships among different stakeholders. The United Nations is also the source of much of the data and analysis needed to inform effective policymaking. Above all, the United Nations links Member States and people around the world to foster the spirit of multilateralism that galvanizes needed global support for individual countries, particularly those with fewer resources and greater vulnerabilities. SHAPING THE TRENDS OF OUR TIME III Explanatory note The term “country” as used in the text also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas. The designations of country groups are intended solely for statistical or analytical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgment about the stage of development reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and policies of the United Nations. All queries should be addressed to [email protected]. THE FOLLOWING ABBREVIATIONS WERE USED: ACCA Association of Chartered IMF International Monetary Fund Certified Accountants IOM International Organization for Migration AfDB African Development Bank IPBES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform BEPS Base erosion and profit shifting on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services CBD Convention on Biological Diversity IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change COMESA Common Market for Eastern and IRP International Resource Panel Southern Africa MDGs Millennium Development Goals ECLAC Economic Commission for Latin OECD Organisation for Economic America and the Caribbean Co-operation and Development ELD Economics of Land Degradation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals EPI Economic Policy Institute SNA System of National Accounts ESCAP United Nations Economic and Social UN-Habitat United Nations Human Commission for Asia and the Pacific Settlement Programme ESCWA Economic and Social Commission UNCCD United Nations Convention for Western Asia to Combat Desertification FAO Food and Agriculture Organization UNCTAD United Nations Conference of the United Nations on Trade and Development GDP Gross domestic product UNDESA United Nations Department of GSDR Global Sustainable Development Report Economic and Social Affairs IADB Inter-American Development Bank UNDP United Nations Development Programme IATF Inter-agency Task Force UNEP United Nations Environment Programme IBPES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform UNESCO United Nations Educational, on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scientific and Cultural Organization ICT Information and communication technology UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund IDMC Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre UNIDO United Nations Industrial IEA International Energy Agency Development Organization IFA International Federation of Accountants UNU-WIDER United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute WHO World Health Organization ILO International Labour Organization IV REPORT OF UN ECONOMIST NETWORK FOR THE UN 75TH ANNIVERSARY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The report Shaping the Trends of Our Time was prepared by the United Nations Economist Network under the guidance of Elliott Harris, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development and Chief Economist. Staff from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA); the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA); the Economic Commission for Europe (ECE); the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP); the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA); the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD); the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); the International Labour Organization (ILO); the International Telecommunication Union (ITU); the International Trade Centre (ITC); the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women); the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP); the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat); the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO); the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); the United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD); the United Nations University – World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER); the United Nations University – Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (UNU-MERIT); and the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) contributed to the report. Pushpam Kumar, UNEP, led the drafting of chapter 2, with a peer review by Kevin Chika Urama. Jorge Bravo, UNDESA, and Saurabh Sinha, ECA, led the drafting of chapter 3, with a peer review by Jocelyn Finlay. Christopher Williams, UN-Habitat, and Sasha Koo-Oshima, FAO, led the drafting of chapter 4, with a peer review by David Satterthwaite. Marcelo LaFleur and Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng, UNDESA, led the drafting of chapter 5, with a peer review by Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Marta Roig, UNDESA, Simone Cecchini, ECLAC, and Heriberto Tapia, UNDP, led the drafting of chapter 6, with a peer review by Michael Förster and Emanuele Ciani. Alex Julca, UNDESA, coordinated the matrix of megatrend interlinkages, and Leah Kennedy and Phyllis Roberts, UNDESA, provided administrative support. The