THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Volume 6, No. 2 May 2008 The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is a publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, edited in Sweden at the Stockholm-based Institute for Security and Development Policy. The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program is a joint transatlantic independent and externally funded research and policy center. The Joint Center has offices in Washington and Stockholm, and is affiliated with the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns Hopkins University and the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP). It is the first Institution of its kind in Europe and North America, and is today firmly established as a leading center for research and policy worldwide, serving a large and diverse community of analysts, scholars, policy-watchers, business leaders and journalists. The Joint Center aims to be at the forefront of research on issues of conflict, security and development in the region; and to function as a focal point for academic, policy, and public discussion of the region through its applied research, its publications, teaching, research cooperation, public lectures and seminars. The China and Eurasia Forum is an independent forum which seeks to bring together regional experts, academics, government policy makers, and business leaders with an interest in the growing relationship between China and Eurasia. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian relations, the aim of China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is to foster discussion and information sharing between a geographically distant community that recognizes the significance of China's emergence in this important part of the world. The journal aims to provide our readers with a singular and reliable assessment of events and trends in the region written in an analytical tone rather than a polemical one. Abstracting Services The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is currently noted in the International Bibliography of the Social Sciences (IBSS) and is also available through EBSCO Research Databases. Upcoming Issues * August 2008 – (Deadline for Submissions, July 1, 2008); November 2008 – (Deadline for Submissions, September 1, 2008) Subscriptions Subscription inquiries and requests for hard copies should be addressed to: Stallion Press Ltd. Singapore, Attn: Chin Kok Kit, No.5 Toh Tuck Link, Singapore 596224, Singapore. Rates: $100-Individuals; $200-Institutions. The China and Eurasia Forum, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20036, United States or The China and Eurasia Forum, The Silk Road Studies Program, Institute for Security and Development Policy, V. Finnbodav. 2, 13130 Nacka-Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: [email protected] Visit our Website at: www.chinaeurasia.org. The statements of fact or opinion expressed in the articles or commentaries do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and sponsors. Printed in Singapore by Stallion Press Ltd. © Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, 2007. The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly (ISSN 1653-4212) is published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program <www.silkroadstudies.org>. Map used in the cover design is courtesy of the University of Texas Libraries, The University of Texas at Austin. THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 6, No. 2 May 2008 Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden This publication was made possible with the support of The Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs and The Swedish Research Council THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Niklas Swanström Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Assistant Editors Christopher Len Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Nicklas Norling Institute for Security and Development Policy, Sweden E-mail: [email protected] Senior Advisors Daniel L. Burghart Malia K. Du Mont National Defense University, Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum United States and Former Associate Editor of the CEF Quarterly, United States. Svante Cornell Director, Institute for Security and Matthew Oresman Development Policy, Sweden Co-Founder of the China-Eurasia Forum, Former Director of the China-Eurasia David M. Finkelstein Forum and Former Editor of the CEF The CNA Corporation, United States Quarterly, United States Pan Guang S. Frederick Starr Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus China Institute, United States Bates Gill Farkhod Tolipov Center for Strategic and International National University of Uzbekistan, Studies, United States Uzbekistan Zhao Huasheng Dmitri V. Trenin Fudan University, China Carnegie Endowment for International James A. Millward Peace, Russia Georgetown University, United States THE CHINA AND EURASIA FORUM QUARTERLY Volume 6, No. 2 May 2008 Contents Reassessing the Fleeting Potential for U.S.-China Cooperation in Central Asia Matthew Oresman..………………………………………………………………………… 5 Criminalization of the Kyrgyz State Before and After the Tulip Revolution Erica Marat….….………………………………………………………………………………. 15 Rethinking Central Asian Security Stephen Blank…….………………………………………………………………………………23 Kazakhstan: Will “BRIC” be Spelled with a K? Martha Brill Olcott………………………….…………………………………………………41 China’s Central Asian Strategy and the Xinjiang Connection: Predicaments and Medicaments in a Contemporary Perspective Yitzhak Schicor………………………………………………………………………………….55 China as an Emerging Superpower in Central Asia: The View from Ashkhabad Jan Šír and Slavomír Horák…..…………………………………………………………….75 China’s Integration of Xinjiang with Central Asia: Securing a “Silk Road” to Great Power Status Michael Clarke…………………………………………….. ………………………………….89 Editors Note Dear Colleagues and Friends, Summer vacation is hopefully approaching for many of us and for some it has already arrived. We hope that this issue will add positively to your summer and hopefully stimulate you for the coming period of work. The Central Asian region has changed immensely since independence but what is extraordinary about this region is how pronounced these changes are even on a year-to-year basis. To grasp the current state of affairs we have brought together some of the foremost scholars in the field to give you a detailed account of this. This issue includes both assessments on the regional powers influence, the changing domestic politics in the individual states and how these processes, in turn, have impacted their foreign policy. Many changes have been seen in the last year and the coming years seem to offer even more interesting developments, both politically and economically. China´s rapid emergence in the Central Asian countries and Afghanistan is certain to entail both opportunities and problems for these states. At the same time, however, it is becoming evident that many of the Central Asian states gradually are becoming strong independent actors – partly as a result of skilful diplomacy. Stephen Blank’s article for this issue is intended to provide a contemporary framework through which these changing security relations in the Central Asian region could be seen. The interaction between internal threats and external assistance identified in his article also gives interesting food for thought about contemporary power relations in Central Asia. His article succinctly describes the process by which the Central Asian states are playing the regional powers against each other as a way to maximize their contributions to each state’s internal security. Thus, while the Central Asian states may seem weak, they have turned this weakness into bargaining strength which also gives interesting clues to the interplay between domestic and external policies. Turkmenistan is using a similar strategy but in the energy sector. By opening up other alternatives than Russia-bound pipelines it has managed to increase export prices and put pressure on Moscow’s previous colonial-type arrangements. When the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline is completed in the next few years it will unavoidably be an additional bargaining chip for Ashkhabad. Jan Šír and Slavomír Horák details China’s engagement with Turkmenistan since 1991 in this issue and how the succession in Turkmenistan in 2006, and the “appointment” of Berdimukhammedov as President, has altered the direction of Ashgabat. Their article provides convincing evidence of a very active and assertive China which constructs pipelines and acquires equity stakes in a pace which the Europeans only could dream about. No wonder then that Turkmenistan looks positively on China’s role as not only a large investor but as an “instant hedge” against other interested powers and their engagement. It seems that China has emerged as one of the foremost power players in the region and nothing today indicates that this interest will slow down. This increasingly strong and assertive China combined with a waning American interest in the region has led Matthew Oresman to argue, in the introductory commentary to this issue, that the US needs China in order to realize its regional goals. Still he maintains that such cooperation was unlikely even in the first years after 9/11 and is looking increasingly more so today. Yitzhak Schicor and Michael