This document is Not for - On-going Research West and Wales: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Contents 1 Introduction .................................................................................... 7 Strategic Dimension .............................................................................. 17 2 Introduction .................................................................................. 17 3 The Case for Change ...................................................................... 28 4 The Need for Intervention ............................................................. 72 5 Wider Context ................................................................................ 75 6 Option Assessment Process ........................................................... 78 7 Strategic Dimension Summary ....................................................... 96 Economic Dimension ............................................................................. 98 8 Introduction .................................................................................. 98 9 Approach to Cost Estimation ........................................................ 105 10 Quantified SDC Programme Impacts ............................................ 108 11 Economy Impacts ........................................................................ 115 12 Environment Impacts................................................................... 117 13 Social Impacts ............................................................................. 125 14 Public Accounts Impacts .............................................................. 131 15 Value for Money ........................................................................... 134 Financial Dimension ............................................................................ 144 16 Introduction ................................................................................ 144 17 Implementation Funding Requirement ........................................ 145 18 Operational Life Funding Requirement ......................................... 148 Commercial Dimension ....................................................................... 150 19 Introduction ................................................................................ 150 February 2019 | i West and Wales: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC 20 Approach to Procurement ............................................................ 150 21 Next Steps ................................................................................... 156 Management Dimension ...................................................................... 158 22 Introduction ................................................................................ 158 23 Programme Governance ............................................................... 158 24 Programme Lifecycle and Sequencing .......................................... 161 25 Stakeholder Management and Communications ........................... 162 26 Risk and Opportunities Management ........................................... 163 27 Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................... 165 28 Management Dimension Summary ............................................... 167 Glossary .............................................................................................. 168 Appendices ......................................................................................... 173 Figures Figure 1: TfN Strategic Development Corridors ....................................... 8 Figure 2 West and Wales Geography ................................................... 12 Figure 3: The Three Phases of the Decision Making Process .................... 15 Figure 4: TfN's key Pan-Northern Objectives ........................................ 21 Figure 5: Emerging vision for the Northern Powerhouse Rail Network ...... 26 Figure 6: Relative Productivity of major centres within the West and Wales SDC, North of England and other parts of the UK (GVA per head index 2015) .............................................................................................. 31 Figure 7. Proportion of working age population with NVQ4+ qualifications in 2017 ............................................................................................... 32 Figure 8. Skills demand UK by region .................................................. 33 Figure 9. Weighted average total distance travelled by rail per person per year by NPIER Capability in England .................................................... 35 Figure 10: Future IECs in the West and Wales SDC ............................... 36 Figure 11: NPIER Capabilities within the West and Wales SDC ................ 37 Figure 12: Transport interventions and economic performance ............... 38 February 2019 | ii West and Wales: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 13: Proximity of IECs to the TfN Major Route Network ................. 41 Figure 14: Average Speeds on the MRN within the W&W SDC ................. 42 Figure 15: West and Wales Rail Network .............................................. 45 Figure 16: Intercity and Interurban Services Average Speed Map ........... 47 Figure 17: Road Freight Annual Cargo Tonnes ...................................... 49 Figure 18: Rail Freight Annual Cargo Tonnes ........................................ 49 Figure 19: UK Major Ports – Domestic and International Annual Freight Tonnage .......................................................................................... 50 Figure 20: Visitor Economy: The North's share of visits and expenditure; source: STP ..................................................................................... 51 Figure 21: International gateways to the West & Wales SDC .................. 53 Figure 22: International gateways to the West & Wales SDC .................. 53 Figure 23: Environmental designation West & Wales corridor.................. 55 Figure 24: Initial Northern Transport Demand Model Forecast Scenarios .. 56 Figure 25: Road Freight (cargo tonnes) - Difference between 2016 Base and 2050 NPIER scenarios ....................................................................... 59 Figure 26: Rail Freight (cargo tonnes) - Difference between 2016 Base and 2050 NPIER scenarios ....................................................................... 60 Figure 27: Cross border commuters (NW Wales and NW England) ........... 65 Figure 28: Staged Approach to Pan-Northern transport scheme identification .................................................................................... 78 Figure 29: West and Wales SDC SOP Road Interventions Map (includes schemes promoted by Welsh Government) .......................................... 85 Figure 30: Passenger Rail SOP Proposals across the Strategic Development Corridors ......................................................................................... 89 Figure 31: West and Wales SDC SOP Rail Interventions Map .................. 90 Figure 32: MRN Multi-modal Interface ................................................. 92 Figure 33: Estimation of Costs for Appraisal ........................................107 Figure 34: 2050 Interpeak Traffic Flow Changes (SOP minus Reference Case) .............................................................................................111 Figure 35: Sector User Benefits .........................................................112 Figure 36: User Benefits per Head ......................................................128 Figure 37: Public Accounts Table for the SDC Programme (NTEM Growth Scenario) (£’000s discounted market prices) .......................................133 Figure 38: TEE Table for the SDC Programme (NTEM Scenario) (£’000s discounted market prices) .................................................................135 February 2019 | iii West and Wales: Strategic Development Corridor SPOC Figure 39: AMCB Table for the SDC Programme (NTEM Scenario) (£’000s discounted market prices) .................................................................136 Figure 40 Investment programme development process .......................155 Figure 41: Example from Trans Pennine Tunnel ...................................156 Figure 42 SDC Governance Structure .................................................159 Figure 43 High-level delivery programme ............................................161 Figure 44 TfN's Risk Management Process ...........................................164 Tables Table 1: Important Economic Centres within the West and Wales SDC .... 13 Table 2 Transport Investment Strategy Objectives ................................ 19 Table 3 Reference case parameters and assumptions ............................ 27 Table 4 Reference Case: List of interventions (Road/Rail) ...................... 27 Table 5 Population and jobs in the West and Wales SDC ........................ 29 Table 6 Productivity in the West and Wales SDC ................................... 30 Table 7 West and Wales International gateways as a Percentage of Total UK Activity ............................................................................................ 52 Table 8: Prime Capabilities of the North ............................................... 63 Table 9 SDC Sub-objectives ............................................................... 74 Table 10 Stakeholder Consultation Chester and Warrington Summary ..... 79 Table 11 Assessment scoring scale .....................................................