Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Opening August 2017 1 Although this report was commissioned by Highways England, the findings and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Highways England. While Highways England has made every effort to ensure the information in this document is accurate, Highways England does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of that information; and it cannot accept liability for any loss or damages of any kind resulting from reliance on the information or guidance this document contains. Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Table of contents Chapter Pages Executive summary 4 Scheme Description 4 Scheme Objectives 4 Key Findings 4 Summary of Scheme Impacts 5 Summary of Scheme Economic Performance 6 1. Introduction 7 Background 7 Scheme Location 7 Problems Prior to the Scheme 8 Objectives 8 Scheme Description 8 Scheme History 10 Nearby Schemes 10 Overview of POPE 11 Contents of this Report 12 2. Traffic Analysis 13 Introduction 13 Data Sources 13 Background Changes in Traffic 17 Observed Traffic Flows 18 Forecast Traffic Flows 29 Journey Time Analysis 36 Journey Time Reliability 40 Key Points – Traffic 42 3. Safety Evaluation 43 Introduction 43 Data Sources 43 Collisions 44 Collision and Casualty Numbers 45 Forecast Collision Numbers and Rates 56 Security 59 Key Points – Safety 60 4. Economy 61 Introduction 61 Evaluation of Journey Time Benefits 62 Evaluation of Safety Benefits 64 Indirect Tax 66 Carbon Impact 67 Scheme Costs 67 Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) 69 Wider Economic Impacts 69 Key Points – Economy 71 5. Environment 72 Introduction 72 2 Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Data Collection 72 Traffic Forecasts and Evaluation 75 Noise 76 Local Air Quality 78 Greenhouse Gases 80 Landscape and Townscape 81 Cultural Heritage and Archaeology 87 Biodiversity 91 Water Quality and Drainage 98 Physical Fitness 103 Journey Ambience 106 Key Points – Environment 109 6. Accessibility and Integration 111 Introduction 111 Accessibility 111 Integration 114 Key Points – Accessibility and Integration 116 7. Appraisal Summary Table and Evaluation Summary Table 117 Appraisal Summary Table (AST) 117 Evaluation Summary Table (EST) 117 8. Conclusions 122 Introduction 122 Scheme Specific Objectives 122 Appendices 123 Appendix A. OYA and FYA Traffic Flow Comparison (AWT) 124 Appendix B. Environment 126 B.1. Sources 126 B.2. Photographic Record of Scheme 128 Appendix C. Glossary 138 Appendix D. Tables and Figures in this Report 141 3 Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Executive summary Scheme Description The A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme was a major Highways England scheme that opened to traffic in April 2012. The scheme provided 17.5 miles (28 km) of dual carriageway, replacing a substandard section of single carriageway. Multiple existing junctions were replaced with grade separated junctions, facilitating the free-flow of traffic on the A46 mainline. The scheme also included the retention of some sections of the existing alignment for cycle/pedestrian/equestrian routes. Scheme Objectives The Statement of Case (2007) set out the following objectives: Objective Has the scheme objective been achieved? To reduce the number of accidents. To reduce congestion along the route. To improve links between Nottingham and Leicester to Newark, the A1 and Lincoln. To provide an improved strategic link between the M1 and A1. To relieve significant development pressures in Bingham. Key Findings This report has found the following key findings: • On the A46 mainline, average weekday traffic flows have increased by 27-51%, with reduced traffic along minor alternative routes. • The traffic forecasts compiled at the appraisal stage have generally overestimated traffic volumes on the A46 and some surrounding roads, mainly due to overestimation of traffic growth, progress of local development and not modelling re-routeing from the wider study area. • Average journey times along the A46 between Newark and Widmerpool have reduced, along with an improvement in journey time reliability due to reduced congestion. This has not been to the level forecast. • Analysis of collision data indicates that the scheme has saved 11.6 personal injury collisions per year for the appraisal area, and 10.5 for the key links (A46 main carriageway, on/off slips, old alignment of the A46) of the scheme. This indicates that the scheme has had a beneficial impact on safety whilst taking into account the background reduction in collisions over the appraisal period. • Monetary benefits are lower than expected, with outturn present value benefits of £731.6m, compared to a forecast of £996.22m. This is primarily due to the journey times and collision savings being lower than forecast. 4 Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Summary of Scheme Impacts Traffic • Average weekday traffic flows on the A46 scheme key links have increased post-scheme with an increase of 34% (9,700 vehicles per day) observed on the A46 between the junction with A52 and A6097. On the northern section of the scheme, a 47% increase (11,400 vehicles per day) has been observed. The highest percentage increase was observed on the southern section of the scheme, of 51% which equates to an additional 9,700 vehicles per day. • Traffic has reduced on a number of alternative routes to the east of the scheme, which indicates that traffic has transferred onto the improved A46 scheme section. To the west, there is a more mixed picture with some sites experiencing an increase in traffic flow and others decreasing. As the increase in flows on the A46 is above the level of transference and background growth, this suggests that the scheme has also reduced rat-running through local villages. • Traffic forecasts were generally higher than observed, both with and without the scheme. On the scheme section, observed traffic volumes were lower than forecast which is likely to be due to re- routeing onto the A46 being lower than forecast, progress of developments near to the scheme to date and background traffic growth being lower than expected. • For vehicles travelling between Newark and Widmerpool, average journey times have reduced considerably between pre- and post-scheme opening. The greatest benefit was observed during the PM peak for vehicles travelling southbound (saving of approximately 16 minutes). The observed journey time savings are lower than those forecast. • Journey time reliability has improved as a result of the scheme, which is due to a reduction in congestion and collisions along the length of the scheme. Safety • Analysis of observed safety data for the modelled area shows an annual collision saving of 11.6 collisions per year. On the key links of the scheme, an annual collision saving of 10.5 collisions per year is observed, which is statistically significant. This clearly indicates that the scheme has had a beneficial impact on safety. • The severity of the collisions on the key links has reduced, with the rate of fatal and serious injuries per billion vehicle kilometres (bvkm) reducing by 34% compared to pre-scheme. • The scheme was forecast to reduce the annual number of collisions on the key links by 30%. Observed data shows that the scheme has reduced the annual number of collisions on the key links by 21%. The observed collision savings are lower than those forecast (30% reduction in annual collisions over the key links), with a reduction of 21% observed. Environment • Based on traffic flows, the noise and local air quality impacts of the scheme are generally as expected, with some local variations. • The observed increase in carbon emissions between pre- and post-scheme is less than forecast. Observed total carbon emissions are lower than forecast as the without scheme scenario forecast overestimated carbon emissions in the pre-scheme period. • The landscape measures are generally as expected (slight adverse). The planting for visual screening is serving to reduce the immediate impacts of the scheme. • Biodiversity mitigation measures have been installed as expected, and based on the site visit conducted at FYA, they have been deemed to be successful. Confirmation of use has not been received by the POPE team. Therefore, based on the findings of a site visit alone, it is considered that the impact is as expected. • The impact on heritage is mostly as expected (moderate adverse). • The water environment and drainage features are performing as expected. • Physical fitness benefits are also largely as expected. Journey ambience has improved due to the removal of congestion along the route and conflict with non-motorised users. The large beneficial impact predicted in the forecast is apparent. 5 Post Opening Project Evaluation A46 Newark to Widmerpool Improvement Scheme - Five Years After Accessibility and Integration • The removal of traffic on the existing alignment of the A46 and improvements at junctions along the length of the scheme has improved journey time reliability for local bus services using the A46 mainline, and it is also likely that it will be safer for them to pull into, and out of, bus stops. Although some services