www.ssoar.info History and Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing Goldstone, Jack A. (Ed.); Grinin, Leonid (Ed.); Korotayev, Andrey (Ed.) Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Sammelwerk / collection Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Goldstone, J. A., Grinin, L., & Korotayev, A. (Eds.). (2015). History and Mathematics: Political Demography and Global Ageing. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-57749-8 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer Basic Digital Peer Publishing-Lizenz This document is made available under a Basic Digital Peer zur Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den DiPP-Lizenzen Publishing Licence. For more Information see: finden Sie hier: http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ http://www.dipp.nrw.de/lizenzen/dppl/service/dppl/ RUSSIAN PRESIDENTIAL ACADEMY OF NATIONAL ECONOMY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION International Laboratory of Political Demography and Social Macro-Dynamics RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics Institute of Oriental Studies HISTORY & MATHEMATICS Political Demography & Global Ageing Edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House Volgograd ББК 22.318 60.5 ‛History & Mathematics’ Yearbook Editorial Council: Herbert Barry III (Pittsburgh University), Leonid Borodkin (Moscow State University; Cliometric Society), Robert Carneiro (American Museum of Natural History), Christopher Chase-Dunn (University of California, Riverside), Dmitry Chernavsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Tessaleno Devezas (University of Beira Interior), Leonid Grinin (National Research Univer- sity Higher School of Economics), Antony Harper (Eurasian Center for Big Histo- ry & System Forecasting), Peter Herrmann (University College of Cork, Ireland), Andrey Korotayev (Higher School of Economics), Alexander Logunov (Russian State University for the Humanities), Georgy Malinetsky (Russian Academy of Sciences), Sergey Malkov (Russian Academy of Sciences), Charles Spencer (American Museum of Natural History), Rein Taagapera (University of Califor- nia, Irvine), Arno Tausch (Innsbruck University), William Thompson (Universi- ty of Indiana), Peter Turchin (University of Connecticut), Douglas White (Uni- versity of California, Irvine), Yasuhide Yamanouchi (University of Tokyo). History & Mathematics: Political Demography & Global Ageing. Yearbook / Edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev. – Volgograd: ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015. – 176 pp. Among different important issues, which are discussed in Political Demography the issue of global ageing becomes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many develop- ing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In forthcoming decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future so- ciety characteristics and the direction of technological development. The present volume of the Yearbook (which is the fifth in the series) is subtitled ‘Po- litical Demography & Global Ageing’. It brings together a number of interesting articles by scholars from Europe, Asia, and America. They examine global ageing from a variety of perspectives. This issue of the Yearbook consists of two main sections: (I) Aspects of Political Demography; (II) Facing Population Ageing. We hope that this issue will be interesting and useful both for historians and mathe- maticians, as well as for all those dealing with various social and natural sciences. This research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundations (Project No 14-11- 00634). ‛Uchitel’ Publishing House 143 Kirova St., 400079 Volgograd, Russia Printed in Volgograd polygraphic complex ‘Ofset’ Kim Street, 6, Volgograd, 400001, Russia ISBN 978-5-7057-4670-5 © ‘Uchitel’ Publishing House, 2015 Volgograd 2015 Contents Jack A. Goldstone, Introduction. Research into Global Ageing and Its Leonid E. Grinin, and Consequences . 5 Andrey V. Korotayev I. Aspects of Political Demography David. A. Coleman Ethnic Transformation of European Societies by Immigration . 10 David A. Coleman and Population Decline – Making the Best Robert Rowthorn of Inevitable Destiny? . 26 Vasil T. Sakaev The Political Development of Russia in the 21st Century: Challenges of Demographic Factor and the Role of Educational System . 42 Andrey V. Korotayev, Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting of the Demo- Jack A. Goldstone, graphic Future of Russia: Seven Scenarios . 52 Julia V. Zinkina, Sergey G. Shulgin, Daria A. Khaltourina, and Daria A. Folomeyeva II. Facing Population Ageing Leonid E. Grinin and Global Population Ageing, the Sixth Kondratieff Wave, Andrey V. Korotayev and the Global Financial System . 81 Donghyun Park and Impact of Population Ageing on Asia's Future Growth 107 Kwanho Shin Mark L. Haas Population Ageing and the Future of the Great Powers 133 Jack A. Goldstone Population Ageing and Global Economic Growth . 147 4 Сontents Jason L. Powell and Ageing in Post-Industrial Society: Trends and Trajecto- Hafiz T. A. Khan ries . 156 III. Reviews and Notes Jack A. Goldstone On Great Divergence, Great Convergence, Industrial Revolution, and California School . 167 Contributors . 172 Guidelines for Contributors . 176 Introduction Research into Global Ageing and Its Consequences Jack A. Goldstone, Leonid E. Grinin, and Andrey V. Korotayev With the further growth of the world population and the further intensification of the processes of interaction between countries and increasing movements of the masses of people, the role of Political Demography becomes more and more important. Issues of global ageing, migration, low fertility in developed coun- tries (or very high fertility in some African countries), high mortality in many developing states (including deaths from AIDS); rapid change in the ethnic composition in Europe and in several other regions and many other pressing issues are in the focus of this discipline. Some of these problems are analyzed in this yearbook. However, among those issues, the issue of global ageing be- comes more and more pressing every year. It is sufficient to take into account the point that within two forthcoming decades a rapid global increase in the number of retirement-age persons will lead to its doubling within this fairly small historical period. The concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. In the next decades the population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics and direc- tions of technological development. The ancient Greeks thought of the ages of mankind as passing through youth (the Golden Age), a vigorous adulthood (the Silver and Bronze Age), then a period of pain and conflict, the ‘Iron Age’. As we enter the 21st centu- ry, the world's population is entering an era of unprecedented ageing. Howev- er, it is unclear whether it will indeed prove to be an ‘Iron Age’ of pain and conflict. Certainly, the economic condition of ageing nations will be tested, as their economies are likely to slow while the financial burdens of health and pension support for an ageing population will increase. At the same time, the continued rapid growth and youthfulness of societies in the Middle East and History & Mathematics: Demography & Ageing 2015 5–9 5 6 Introduction Africa are producing waves of international migrants, both those fleeing re- gional conflicts and those looking for greater opportunities than can be found in their own countries. The combination of economic pressures and immigra- tion strains could indeed produce an ‘Iron Age’ of pain and conflict if the world's most developed countries are unable to produce creative responses to these changes. Yet a brighter future also can be imagined. The stabilization of popula- tions in the rich world could also provide a stabilization of pollution and cli- mate-change inducing emissions. Moreover, ageing populations could well make politicians more inclined to seek peace and avoid war. Properly regulat- ed, an increase in global migration could inject a measure of vigor into the ageing societies and economies of Europe, East Asia, and North America, while serving as a safety valve to release social tensions in the developing world. This brighter future is what we all hope for. However, it will require a deep understanding of how ageing will affect the global economy and national and global politics to craft the right responses. Richer countries will need to bring health costs under control, and redesign retirement and pension systems for populations where nearly half of the adult population is over 60 years old. Both richer and poorer countries will need to develop plans to regulate international migration that provide fairness and opportunity while restricting exploitation and trafficking of vulnerable people, and that allow the global movement of people to parallel that of capital and information, while still preserving the rich tapestry of the world's cultures and practices. The data showing how the number of the aged is expected to increase makes clear both the novelty and immensity of the