Public Disclosure Authorized Report No. 67668-SAS Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Mountains Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the HINDU KUSH-HIMALAYA MOUNTAINS b Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya Mountains Donald Alford, David Archer, Bodo Bookhagen, Wolfgang Grabs, Sarah Halvorson, Kenneth Hewitt, Walter Immerzeel, Ulrich Kamp, and Brandon Krumwiede i This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Acknowledgements This volume was prepared by a team led by Winston Yu (the World Bank) and Donald Alford (Consultant). Don Alford, David Archer (Newcastle University), Bodo Bookhagen (University of California Santa Barbara), and Walter Immerzeel (Utrecht University) contributed to the sections related to mountain hydrology. Wolfgang Grabs (World Meteorological Organization) developed the sections in the report on climate monitoring. Sarah Halvorsen (University of Montana) prepared the sections on indigenous glacier monitoring. Kenneth Hewitt (Wilfrid Laurier University) developed the sections on glacier mass balance monitoring. Ulrich Kamp (University of Montana) and Brandon Krumwiede (US National Weather Service) contributed to the sections on satellite imagery and digital elevation models. Editorial support of John Dawson is gratefully acknowledged. The authors benefited enormously from the many technical discussions with colleagues during the preparation of this report and strategic guidance from senior management. Generous support was provided by the World Bank and the South Asia Water Initiative. ii CONTENTS Contents About the Authors x Abbreviations and Acronyms xiii Executive Summary xv Monitoring Objectives xv Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff: Main Themes xvii Climate xvii Glaciers xvii Hydrology xviii Indigenous Monitoring xviii Satellite Imagery and GIS xix Mesoscale Imagery xix Macroscale Imagery xx MODIS xx TRMM xx AVHRR xx DEMs and Geomorphometry xx Requirements for Instituting a Monitoring Program xxi 1. Introduction 1 1.1 History 2 1.2 The Problem 3 1.3 Scale and Location 3 1.4 Objectives and Procedures 5 References 6 2. Climate Monitoring 7 2.1 Monitoring Objectives 7 2.2 Previous Network Design Recommendations 8 2.3 Use of Climate Networks 9 2.3.1 Temperature 9 2.3.2 Precipitation 10 2.4 Environmental Features Affecting Variations in Climate and Glacier Mass Balance 11 2.4.1 Precipitation 11 2.4.2 Temperature 12 2.4.3 Energy Balance Variables 14 2.5 Monitoring and Analysis Needs 14 2.5.1 Using Existing Climatological Data 15 2.5.2 Assessing Stationarity and Homogeneity of Records 16 iii Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the HINDU KUSH-HIMALAYA MOUNTAINS Observational and Entry Errors 17 Changes of Instrument or Measurement Practice 17 Changes in Station Location 17 Changes in Station Environment 17 2.6 Identification of and Adjustment for Bias 18 2.6.1 Statistical Methods 18 2.6.2 Investigation of Regional Consistency 19 2.7 Monitoring Network Components 19 2.7.1 Automatic Weather Stations 19 2.7.2 Communications 20 2.7.3 Measurement of Snow 21 Falling Snow 21 Snow on the Ground 21 2.8 Recommendations 22 2.8.1 Data and Metadata Acquisition and Validation Recommendations 22 2.8.2 Climate Analysis Recommendations 23 2.8.3 Monitoring and Instrumentation Recommendations 24 References 24 3. Glacier Mass Balance Monitoring 27 3.1 Monitoring Approaches 28 3.2 High Asian Context 29 3.3 National and Transboundary Issues 30 3.4 Glacier Inventories and Reference Materials 31 3.5 Past and Present Monitoring Efforts in the Region 32 3.5.1 India 32 3.5.2 China 33 3.5.3 Nepal 33 3.5.4 Pakistan 34 3.6 Current State of Direct Glacier Monitoring 34 3.6.1 Elements of Mass Balance in the HKH 36 3.6.2 Accumulation and Source Zones 38 3.6.3 High-Elevation Snowfall at Biafo Glacier, Central Karakoram 40 3.6.4 Ablation in the HKH 42 3.7 Debris-covered Glaciers 43 3.8 Water Yield from Glaciers 44 3.9 Glacier Regimes 46 3.10 Mass Balance Gradients 46 3.11 Verticality 47 3.12 Glacier Motion 48 3.13 Thermal Classes 49 3.14 Neglected Seasons 50 3.15 Discussion 51 3.15.1 Field Programs and Instrumentation 51 3.15.2 Personnel and Safety 51 References 52 iv CONTENTS 4. Mountain Hydrology 57 4.1 Background to Mountain Hydrology 57 4.2 Monitored Streamflow of the HKH Mountains 59 4.2.1 The Indus River 59 4.2.2 Upper Indus Basin Hydrology 61 4.2.3 The Nepal Himalaya 62 4.2.4 Recession Flows 63 4.2.5 East–West Variation in Runoff 64 4.2.6 Altitudinal Gradients of Runoff 64 4.2.7 Initial Uses of the Existing Network 65 4.3 Assessing Comparative Contribution to Streamflow 65 4.4 Streamflow Monitoring 68 4.4.1 Quality of Streamflow Measurements 69 4.4.2 Site Selection 70 4.4.3 Water Level Measurement 70 4.4.4 Establishing a Relationship between Water Level and Discharge 71 4.4.5 Transforming the Record of Stage to Discharge 73 4.4.6 Evaluating Historical Discharge Records 74 4.5 New Network Requirements 75 4.6 Summary and Recommendations 75 References 76 5. Indigenous Glacier Monitoring 79 5.1 Indigenous Monitoring: Overview and Purpose 80 5.2 Vulnerability of Mountain Communities: Some Considerations 81 5.2.1 Glacial Recession 82 5.2.2 Demographics 83 5.2.3 Gaps in Knowledge and Awareness of Mountain Hazards 83 5.2.4 Male Out-migration 84 5.3 Glacier Hazard Management Issues 84 5.4 Solutions for Indigenous Glacier Monitoring in the HKH Region 84 5.5 Observations and Recommendations 85 5.5.1 Observations 85 5.5.2 Recommendations 86 General community interventions 86 Development of indigenous monitoring teams, as in “citizen scientist” programs 86 Support and enhance hazard preparedness and disaster risk reduction at local level 86 References 87 6. Satellite Imagery and Digital Elevation Models 89 6.1 Literature Review 89 6.2 Requirements for Glacier Monitoring Program 90 6.3 Mesoscale Satellite Imagery 90 6.4 Glacier Monitoring Using Satellite Imagery and DEMs 92 6.5 Monitoring Debris-free Glaciers 93 6.6 Monitoring Debris-covered Glaciers 95 v Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the HINDU KUSH-HIMALAYA MOUNTAINS 6.7 Global Land Ice Measurements from Space 97 6.8 Macroscale Satellite Imagery 98 6.8.1 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer 99 6.8.2 Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission 100 6.8.3 Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer 101 6.9 DEMs and Geomorphometry 101 6.9.1 Source Data 101 6.9.2 Error Calculation 104 6.9.3 Ground Control Points 104 6.9.4 Postprocessing 104 6.9.5 Software Packages 105 Satellite Imagery and DEMs 105 Satellite Imagery, DEMs, and GIS 106 6.10 DEM Analysis 106 6.10.1 Geomorphometry 106 6.10.2 Land Surface Parameters 107 6.10.3 Topographic Radiation Modeling 107 6.10.4 Altitudinal Functions 107 6.11 Summary 108 6.11.1 Satellite Imagery 108 6.11.2 DEMs 108 References 110 7. Monitoring of the HKH Cryosphere 114 7.1 Considerations and Technical Procedures for HKH Monitoring 114 7.2 Selection of Monitoring Networks and Logistical Considerations 115 7.3 Practical Procedures the HKH Cyosphere 115 7.3.1 Guiding Principles 115 7.3.2 Essential Variables 115 7.3.3 Requirements Document 116 7.3.4 Components of a Cryospere Monitoring Network 116 7.3.5 Historical Data Records 116 7.3.6 Telecommunications 117 7.4 Data Management 117 7.4.1 Access to Data and Information 117 7.4.2 Metadata 117 7.4.3 Database Management Systems 118 7.4.4 Data Integration and Management 118 7.4.5 Data Management and Reanalysis 118 7.4.6 Development of Analysis and Forecast Procedures 119 7.5 Institutional Setup and Organization 119 7.6 Cryosphere Monitoring Program Components 120 7.7 IGOS Monitoring Principles 121 7.8 General Considerations 122 7.8.1 Costs of Field Trips 122 7.8.2 Selection of Location 122 vi CONTENTS Reference 123 Recommended Reading on Monitoring 123 General 123 Glacier Monitoring 123 Guidelines and Standards Relating to the International Glacier Monitoring Strategy 123 Guidelines and Standards Relating to Measurement of Glacier Fluctuations 123 Snow Monitoring 124 Climate Monitoring 124 Hydrological Monitoring 124 vii Monitoring of Glaciers, Climate, and Runoff in the HINDU KUSH-HIMALAYA MOUNTAINS FIGURES Figure 2.1 Seasonal Temperature and Runoff, Figure 3.8 Debris Cover on Ablation Zone of June–August, at Two Locations in Baltoro Glacier, Central Pakistan 10 Karakoram, June 44 Figure 2.2 Preceding Seasonal Precipitation Figure 3.9 Light, Scattered Debris, Upper (October–March) at Astore and Baltoro Glacier, Representative Runoff (July–September) at Two of about Two Thirds of the Locations 11 Ablation Zone, July 44 Figure 2.3 Estimates of Monthly Freezing Level Figure 4.1 Mountain Catchment Basins of and Seasonal Mean Daytime Land the Indus River 60 Surface Temperature Lapse Rates Figure 4.2 Diversity of Annual Streamflow for Upper Indus Basin 13 from Catchments in the Upper Figure 2.4 Annual Variation of the Indus Basin, One Year 61 Temperature Lapse