SOCIETY FOR THE STUDY OF PEACE AND CONFLICT THURSDAY, 7 NOVEMBER 2019 South Asia Conflict Monitor monthly newsletter on terrorism, violence and armed conflict… CONTENT SRI LANKA: Presidential elections: Will minorities become Kingmakers? NAXAL Movement in India: A Historical Anthology SRI LANKA: “Presidential elections: Will minorities become Kingmakers?” NEWS ROUNDUP (October 2019) As Sri Lanka is gearing towards the eighth against Sajith. Since both AFGHANISTAN: P. 9-11 presidential elections on November 16, national Sajith and GR are from BANGLADESH: P. 11-12 security, foreign policy and foreign investments Sinhala community and INDIA: P. 13-15 in infrastructure projects and minority issues are have almost flagged similar MALDIVES: P. 15 once again dominating the political discourse in issues in their election NEPAL : P. 16-17 the country. Although a record 35 candidates manifestos, Sinhala vote PAKISTAN: P. 17-18 have registered for this election, the electoral could be equally divided SRI LANKA: P. 18-19 debate has been mostly dominated by the UNP between them. In that case, candidate, Sajith Premadasa, and SLPP minority groups’ support to candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa (GR). The JVP anyone of them in the and the NPM could be closer to these two elections would be crucial. Most importantly, the parties. Other candidates are allegedly minority groups like Tamils and Muslims feel participating as proxy or dummy candidates comfortable with the UNP than the SLPP due fielded by the SLPP to share the vote percentage to GR’s association with radical Buddhist groups of UNP candidates. like Bodu Bala Sena (BBS). But GR could get slightly more votes given the global trend in The table reflects that there will be a strong favor of nationalists, and minority consolidation contest between the UNP and the SLPP in this in favor of Sajith could put him as a net vote election. However, Sajith will have the upper gainer. hand against GR because the former has strong grassroots support and is a good orator. Being a Although the SLPP scored well in the local seasonal politician, who comes from a political elections in 2018, voting patterns will be family, he is generally considered as a better different this time around due to issues raised in candidate than GR and others. Unlike GR, there the manifestos and personality of the are no serious allegations or corruption charges candidates. Most importantly, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) was not divided in 2018. constitution by accommodating minority rights. Just before this election, the SLFP has witnessed some serious intra-party divisions due to Minority Demands and Sentiments Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s open support to the UNP candidate. Around 20-25 Tamils: While minorities in the country feel percent SLFP party cadres and leaders are that it is the most appropriate time to bring their supporting Kumaratunga on this. concerns to the notice of the political parties, the latter have attempted to appease the According to the 2012 census, there were minorities only for electoral support. Both 2,270,924 Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka. That Muslim and Tamil communities are anxiously is 11.2 percent of the total population. Sri monitoring the political developments in the Lankan Tamils constitute an overwhelming island country, including keeping a close watch majority in the Northern Province and are the on Gotabaya Rajapaksa due to his association largest ethnic group in the Eastern Province. with the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS). They are in minority in other provinces. Gotabaya on his part has tried to reach out to the two out of the three major minority groups. In his first electoral camping in Jaffna on October 28, GR appealed to have faith in him for a better future. He promised to rehabilitate more than 250 former LTTE cadres and reintegrate them into society if he is voted to power. He, in fact, claimed that 13,000 former LTTE cadres were successfully rehabilitated and a large scale development was carried out in the Manifestos of Major Political Parties North by 2015 during his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa’s rule. GR also stated that his As mentioned earlier, the issues flagged in the manifesto has outlined the steps that would be manifestos of UNP and SLPP are almost taken to resolve the problems of the Northern similar. Both parties have given priority to people. He pledged to strengthen the national security. The difference is that while predominant fisheries sector by providing GR manifesto starts with national security, Sajith fishermen with boats and assisting them with has emphasized on human development and the latest technology. The SLPP candidate drew strengthening social infrastructure. Both the special emphasis on empowering the youth, manifestos have strongly expressed zero especially through education, promising that he tolerance towards religious extremism, would provide university-level education for all terrorism, corruption, and drug trafficking. those who have passed the GCE Advanced Interestingly, while the SLPP gives second Level examination. priority to foreign policy, the UNP has not discussed that in detail. In that case, the UNP Earlier, on October 15, a group of Tamil manifesto appears more inward-oriented and p o l i t i c a l p a r t i e s s i g n e d perhaps indicates a continuation of the current a memorandum highlighting the key demands foreign policy. Surprisingly though, both the of the Tamils. The memorandum was prepared parties are silent on Tamil demands. However, by Tamil university students of the Jaffna and the UNP manifesto indirectly covers some of Eastern universities after talks with the Tamil the social and economic demands of the Tamils. political parties. Illangai Thamil Arasu Katchi On the other hand, the SLPP has remained (ITAK), People's Liberation Organisation of ambiguous about making an inclusive Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), Eelam People's SSPCONLINE.ORG 2 NOVEMBER 2019 Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), Tamil Muslims : The Muslim population of Sri Lanka People's Council (TPC) and Tamil Eelam is roughly 9.7 percent of the total population. Liberation Organization (TELO) signed the They are the third-largest group in the country memorandum. It contains 13 demands, and mostly concentrated in the north-eastern including a demand for a political solution and part. Traditionally, the Muslim community has abolishing the Prevention of Terrorism Act supported the SLPP. However, the scenario has (PTA). The memorandum was presented to the changed in the post-Easter Church attacks two main presidential candidates. period. Sinhala nationalists led by monks, who generally sympathize with the SLPP, consider Interestingly, responding to the memorandum, Muslims as anti-nationals. Immediately after the SLPP leader Weerawansa said that the Tamil ghastly incident in April this year, Buddhist parties are attempting to merge the North and monks targeted the Muslims. Rajapaksa brothers East and push for self-determination. "Our were accused in the past of instigating attacks Presidential candidate will not even look at the on Muslims. As a result, the All Ceylon Makkal conditions in the memorandum.” There are Congress (ACMC) and Sri Lanka Muslim party, visible contradictions in the internal views of headed by Minister Rishad Bathiudeen, have SLPP on the Tamil issues and GR’s statements openly supported UNP candidate Sajith at the Jaffna public rally. Premadasa. The Muslims feel that if GR returns to power they will be harassed through all The SLPP, in fact, tried to consolidate the means. In 2015, both Tamils and Muslims Sinhala vote by accusing Sajith of supporting supported the then-presidential candidate and Tamil cause. The accusation came when the sitting President, Maithripala Sirisena. ITAK declared its support to the NDF presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa on Sensing poor support from the third-largest November 4. group, GR has assured Muslims in the country and has stated that their businesses will be given Despite SLPP’s contradictory views on the full security under his government. Despite all demands, the party could manage to seek this, the petrified Muslim community perhaps support of some Tamil groups. In the northern could feel more comfortable and expect peace Sri Lanaks, the Eelam People's Democratic Party under Sajith’s leadership. (EPDP) led by Douglas Devananda and the Eelam People's Revolutionary Liberation Front Like other minority groups, the Muslim (EPRLF) headed by Varadaraja Perumal will community in Sri Lanka is not monolithic. A support GR. Similarly, in the eastern and central small Muslim party called the National Muslim Sri Lanka, the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal Collective (NMC), led by Ali Sabry PC, (TMVP) led by Karuna and Ceylon Workers’ expressed its support to the SLPP. Speaking at Congress party could extend support to GR. the event titled ‘The Turning Point’ organised by the NMC in Colombo, Ali said, “The UNP or In central Sri Lanka, Up Country Tamils will the West would never look after Muslims and play a crucial role. Historically, this community that the Sri Lankan Muslims expected stability, migrated from India and worked in the national security, communal harmony, progress plantations. Earlier, they were associated with and prosperity in the country.” the Ceylon Workers Congress party. Since the Up Country People’s Front has joined the 50- Final Observations party Democratic Nationalist Front (DNF), which will support the UNP candidate, Up As stated above, the Sri Lankan minorities are Country Tamils will vote for Sajith, but provided not monolithic. Therefore, they may not vote in they go for voting. support of one political party. The intra- SSPCONLINE.ORG 3 NOVEMBER 2019 community differences could be due to insecurity amongst the Muslims. If the winning personality, ideological and social factors. Those party fails to accommodate the moderate Tamil small minority groups who have gone against groups’ demands, then the dormant radical their community sentiments could be due to Tamil groups with the support of the diaspora political and opportunistic factors.