Development of the Greenwich Carbon Neutral Plan Development of the Greenwich Carbon Neutral Plan: The Evidence Base Royal Borough of Greenwich November 2019 Element Energy Limited Suite 1, Bishop Bateman Court, Thompson’s Lane Cambridge, CB5 8AQ Tel: 01223 852499 1 ITEM NO: 11 (Appendix B) Development of the Greenwich Carbon Neutral Plan Contents 1 Executive Summary ......................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Key findings ............................................................................................................................. 5 1.3 Recommendations for action .................................................................................................. 7 1.4 The Maximum ambition scenario ............................................................................................ 9 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 15 2.1 Context and objectives .......................................................................................................... 15 2.2 Background: Carbon emissions and mitigation technologies ............................................... 15 2.3 Carbon neutrality and offsetting ............................................................................................ 17 2.4 Scenarios: Baseline and Maximum ambition ........................................................................ 18 3 Policy Context ................................................................................................................................ 19 3.1 National policy ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.1.1 Net Zero legislation ........................................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 Committee on Climate Change Net Zero Technical Report ............................................. 19 3.1.3 Road to Zero ..................................................................................................................... 21 3.1.4 Clean Growth Strategy ...................................................................................................... 21 3.1.5 Industrial Strategy ............................................................................................................. 22 3.1.6 Revised National Planning Policy Framework (January 2019) ......................................... 23 3.1.7 The Future Homes Standard ............................................................................................. 24 3.1.8 Renewable Heat Incentive ................................................................................................ 25 3.2 Local Policy ........................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.1 London Plan ...................................................................................................................... 25 3.2.2 Mayor’s Transport Strategy 2018 ...................................................................................... 27 3.2.3 London Environment Strategy ........................................................................................... 27 3.2.4 London Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Delivery Plan ........................................................ 28 3.2.5 Royal Greenwich Local Plan ............................................................................................. 28 3.2.6 Greener Greenwich Strategy ............................................................................................ 29 3.2.7 Local Implementation Plan for transport (LIP3) ................................................................ 30 3.2.8 Sharing Cities .................................................................................................................... 30 3.2.9 Low Emission Neighbourhood .......................................................................................... 31 3.3 National infrastructure projects ............................................................................................. 31 3.4 Policy Strength evaluation and comparisons to best practice .............................................. 31 4 Baseline emissions modelling ........................................................................................................ 43 4.1 Modelling methodology and scope of emissions inclusions ................................................. 43 4.2 Comparability with other standards and datasets ................................................................. 44 4.3 Summary Results .................................................................................................................. 45 2 ITEM NO: 11 (Appendix B) Development of the Greenwich Carbon Neutral Plan 4.3.1 Baseline emissions in 2015 ............................................................................................... 45 4.3.2 Total emissions trajectory ................................................................................................. 46 4.3.3 Remaining emissions in 2030 ........................................................................................... 48 4.3.4 Buildings ............................................................................................................................ 49 4.3.5 Transport ........................................................................................................................... 54 4.3.6 Industry, waste & other ..................................................................................................... 55 5 Development of the Maximum ambition 2030 scenario ................................................................. 56 5.1 Summary results ................................................................................................................... 56 5.1.1 Measures modelled ........................................................................................................... 60 5.1.2 Buildings ............................................................................................................................ 68 5.1.3 Transport ........................................................................................................................... 69 5.1.4 Industry, waste & other ..................................................................................................... 71 5.2 Policy appraisal matrix .......................................................................................................... 72 5.2.1 Buildings ............................................................................................................................ 72 5.2.2 Transport ........................................................................................................................... 89 5.2.3 Energy generation, industry, waste & other .................................................................... 102 Table 5-4 Energy generation, industry, waste & other policies ................................................... 102 5.2.4 Publicity campaign .......................................................................................................... 107 5.2.5 Actions to address embedded emissions ....................................................................... 108 6 Action plan & recommendations .................................................................................................. 110 6.1 Timeline ............................................................................................................................... 110 6.2 Options appraisal summaries .............................................................................................. 110 6.3 Priority actions ..................................................................................................................... 117 6.3.1 Summary of priority actions ............................................................................................. 117 6.3.2 Resources and funding for priority actions ...................................................................... 118 6.4 Action plan ........................................................................................................................... 119 7 Appendix ...................................................................................................................................... 125 7.1 Modelling methodology ....................................................................................................... 125 3 ITEM NO: 11 (Appendix B) Development of the Greenwich Carbon Neutral Plan Abbreviations ASHP Air-source heat pump LA Local authority Bio-energy with carbon capture and BECCS LGV Light goods vehicle storage Buildings, Energy and Industrial BEIS LIP Local implementation plan Strategy (Department of) Middle/Lower Layer Super Output BEV Battery electric vehicle M/LSOA Area Minimum energy efficiency BID Business Improvement District MEES standard CAZ Clean air zone MtCO2 1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide National Planning Policy CCC Committee on Climate Change NPPF Framework CHP Combined heat and power OLEV Office for Low Emission Vehicles