Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan Islamabad, December 2018 Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial uses are authorized without any prior written permission from the copyright holders provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission. Applications for such permission should be addressed to the Director, Communications Division, E-mail: [email protected] © WFP 2018 Photos: WFP/Photo Library/Pakistan Copy editor: Ruya Leghari ii Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ vii PREFACE BY THE FEDERAL MINISTER ................................................................. viii STATEMENT BY THE PARLIAMENTARY SECRETARY ............................................ ix FOREWORD ............................................................................................................. x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................ 1 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 5 1.1 Objectives .............................................................................................................. 7 2. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................. 9 2.1 Spatial analysis ................................................................................................... 10 2.1.1 Climate trends.............................................................................................. 10 2.1.2 Vulnerability maps ....................................................................................... 11 2.2 Vulnerability classifications by agro-ecological zones and livelihoods ........ 11 2.3 Scope and limitations of the study ................................................................... 12 3. CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN ...................................................................... 15 3.1 Past climate trends ............................................................................................. 16 3.1.1 Temperature ................................................................................................ 16 3.1.2 Rainfall .......................................................................................................... 18 3.1.3 Monsoon ...................................................................................................... 20 3.2 Climate-related disasters in Pakistan: A historical perspective .................... 21 3.2.1 Floods ............................................................................................................ 22 3.2.2 Drought ......................................................................................................... 24 3.2.3 Other factors ................................................................................................ 25 3.3 Future climate projections ................................................................................ 29 iii Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan 3.4 Managing climate risks ...................................................................................... 30 4. THE STATE OF FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN ................................................ 34 4.1 Food availability and agriculture ...................................................................... 36 4.2 Food access ......................................................................................................... 41 4.3 Food consumption and utilization ................................................................... 44 4.3.1 Malnutrition ................................................................................................. 45 4.4 Food system stability ......................................................................................... 47 5. FOOD SECURITY AND CLIMATE INTERFACE ................................................... 53 5.1 Temperature and food security interface ....................................................... 55 5.1.1 Temperature and food production/availability ....................................... 55 5.1.2 Temperature and food access ................................................................... 57 5.1.3 Temperature and food utilization ............................................................. 58 5.1.4 Temperature and food system stability .................................................... 60 5.2 Precipitation and food security interface ........................................................ 60 5.2.1 Precipitation and food production/availability ........................................ 60 5.2.2 Precipitation and food access .................................................................... 61 5.2.3 Precipitation and food utilization .............................................................. 63 5.2.4 Precipitation and food system stability .................................................... 63 5.3 Sources of income and livelihood diversification ........................................... 64 5.4 Climate vulnerability analysis and agro-ecological zones ............................. 65 6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................... 70 6.1 Climate trends .................................................................................................... 70 6.2 Food security ....................................................................................................... 70 6.3 Food security and climate interface ................................................................. 71 6.3.1 Food production/availability ...................................................................... 71 6.3.2 Food access .................................................................................................. 71 6.3.3 Food utilization ............................................................................................ 72 6.3.4 Livelihoods ................................................................................................... 72 iv Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan 6.3.5 Climate vulnerability hot spots .................................................................. 72 6.3.6 Agro-ecological zones as a unit of climate analysis ................................. 72 6.2.7 Recommendations ...................................................................................... 73 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................... 78 ANNEXES ............................................................................................................... 88 Annex I Vulnerability analysis matrix ..................................................................... 88 Annex II Pakistan agro-ecological zones ................................................................ 89 Annex III List of participants in consultations meetings ...................................... 92 Annex IV Glossary ..................................................................................................... 96 List of figures Figure 1: Map of Pakistan’s districts and population density .................................... 6 Figure 2: Agro-ecological zones in Pakistan ................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Steps for developing the vulnerability matrix ........................................... 12 Figure 4: Mean annual temperature in Pakistan, 1981–2015 ................................. 17 Figure 5: Average annual rainfall in Pakistan, 1982–2016 ....................................... 19 Figure 6: Rainfall variability in Pakistan, 1982–2016 ................................................ 20 Figure 7: Disaster-prone districts and types of disasters ........................................ 21 Figure 8: Flood hazard map of Pakistan .................................................................... 22 Figure 9: Drought hazard map of Pakistan ............................................................... 25 Figure 10: Glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) hazard map (high and very high) .. 26 Figure 11: Landslide hazard map (high and very high) ............................................ 27 Figure 12: El Niño impacts on rainfall, July–September 2015 .................................. 28 Figure 13: Mean annual temperature projections for Pakistan (°C) ....................... 29 Figure 14: Mean annual rainfall projections for Pakistan (mm) .............................. 30 Figure 15: Pakistan’s score on the Global Food Security Index 2017 ........................ 35 Figure 16: Percentage of agricultural growth (using 2005-2006 as a base year) .. 38 Figure 17: Wheat production by province, 2014–2015 ............................................ 39 v Climate Risks and Food Security Analysis: A Special Report for Pakistan Figure 18: Rice production by province, 2014–2015 ................................................ 39 Figure 19: Wheat