Climate change vulnerability assessment of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines For more information on the Verde Island Passage Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact: Emily Pidgeon, PhD Director, Marine Climate Change Program Conservation International–Global Marine Division [email protected] Rowena Boquiren, PhD Socioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) Leader Conservation International–Philippines [email protected] Conservation International 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500 Arlington, VA 22202 USA Web: www.conservation.org This document should be cited as: R. Boquiren, G. Di Carlo, and M.C. Quibilan (Eds). 2010. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines. Technical report. Conservation International, Arlington, Virginia, USA. Science Communication Team Photo credits ©CI/photo by Michelle Encomienda ©Teri Aquino ©CI/photo by Jürgen Freund Tim Carruthers and Jane Hawkey ©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro ©Leonard J McKenzie Integration & Application Network ©Tim Carruthers ©CI/photo by Miledel C. Quibilan ©Benjamin De Ridder, Marine Photobank ©rembss, Flickr University of Maryland Center for ©CI/photo by Giuseppe Di Carlo ©Badi Samaniego © Google Earth ©CI/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn Environmental Science ©Keith Ellenbogen www.ian.umces.edu ii Preface The Verde Island Passage, in the sub-national area of dependent upon them. The assessment evaluated the Luzon in the northern Philippines, is located within the vulnerability of the Verde Island Passage to climate globally significant Coral Triangle, an area considered change and determined the priority actions needed to the center of the world’s marine biodiversity. The Verde ensure that its ecosystems and coastal societies can Island Passage is a conservation corridor that spans adapt to future climate conditions. five provinces: Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon. The abundant This study brought together experts on the Verde Island fish and charismatic megafauna support over 7 million Passage marine environment, climate scientists, social people in those provinces, whose livelihoods include scientists, government officials, and local stakeholders, fishing, aquaculture, and tourism. all working under a common agenda: the need to maintain and increase the resilience of biodiversity of It is projected that climate change will cause rising sea this area. levels, higher ocean temperatures, and more acidic waters. As the ocean largely regulates the climate, This report contains the scientific studies that underpin changes in ocean temperatures and currents are the immediate and substantial actions needed already altering the frequency, intensity, and distribution to increase the adaptive capacity of Verde Island of storms, floods, heat waves, and the amount and Passage’s ecosystems and the people that depend on distribution of rainfall. The unique biodiversity of the them. Adapting to climate change is the only solution Verde Island Passage is at risk. In addition, the loss of to ensure ecosystems and human societies can biodiversity directly impacts its local communities, as survive and maintain their wellbeing when exposed to their livelihoods are dependent primarily on tourism, climate change impacts. These studies will support fisheries, and agriculture, all of which are dependent on the development of “climate-smart” plans for the local these threatened natural resources. governments of the Verde Island Passage. In September 2008, Conservation International, Conservation International and it partners are in cooperation with several partners, conducted a committed to continue to support their efforts towards vulnerability assessment to gauge the likely impacts ensuring the biodiversity of the Verde Island Passage of climate change on marine ecosystems of the Verde is protected and can adapt to future conditions for the Island Passage and the human communities that are benefit of the society and its future generations. Romeo B. Trono County Executive Director Conservation International–Philippines iii Acknowledgements This document is the result of a collective effort and would not have been possible without the contributions of many people and organizations. Conservation International would like to acknowledge the work of the faculty and researchers of the Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines–Diliman, and De La Salle University: Niva Gonzales, Rina Rosales, Miledel C. Quibilan, Sheila Vergara, Michelle Reyes, and Annabelle Trinidad. This work would not have been possible without the kind support and contribution of the Presidential Task Force on Climate Change of the Government of the Philippines, the Provincial Government of Batangas, the Provincial Governments of Occidental and Oriental Mindoro, the Provincial Government of Marinduque, the Provincial Government of Romblon, and all their Municipal Governments, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). We also express our gratitude to each of the Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Workshop participants and their home institutions, and to the numerous staff at Conservation International who provided feedback and input in several stages of this project. iv Table of contents Chapter 1: Vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change in the Verde Island Passage ................................1 Executive summary .......................................................................................................................2 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................6 Study area .....................................................................................................................................6 Hazards ...........................................................................................................................................8 Exposure ......................................................................................................................................... 13 Sea surface temperature in the Verde Island Passage .................................................. 13 Wave exposure .......................................................................................................................... 13 Coastal erosion.......................................................................................................................... 16 Marine flooding .......................................................................................................................... 20 Exacerbating features of the Verde Island Passage ........................................................ 21 Sensitivity ....................................................................................................................................... 22 Habitat and data description .................................................................................................. 22 Method of assessing sensitivity ............................................................................................ 24 Sea surface temperature impact ........................................................................................... 26 Storm impact .............................................................................................................................. 27 Sea level rise impact ................................................................................................................ 27 Adaptive capacity ........................................................................................................................ 30 Vulnerability ................................................................................................................................... 33 Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to diversity ......................................................... 33 Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to fisheries ......................................................... 35 Vulnerable areas vs. ecologically critical or sensitive areas .......................................... 40 Recommendations .......................................................................................................................41 Research and monitoring imperatives ..................................................................................41 Scenarios for adaptation ......................................................................................................... 42 Recommendations and next steps ....................................................................................... 42 Early response and immediate managment recommendations..................................... 44 References ..................................................................................................................................... 45 Chapter 2: Human well-being and climate change in the Verde Island Passage: vulnerability assessment for adaptation ............... 47 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 48 Objective ..................................................................................................................................... 48 Methodology ................................................................................................................................