Market Watch Thursday, February 19, 2015 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr Agenda 16 Monday 17 Tuesday 18 Wednesday 19 Thursday 20 Friday TurkStat, labor statistics Germany, ZEW survey U.S., January housing starts U.S., jobless claims Eurozone, February PMI MoF, January budget Treasury bond auctions U.S., January industrial U.S., Philadelphia Fed survey U.S., February PPI realizations rpoduction Eurozone, February consumer CBRT, January U.S., January PPI confidence expectations survey U.S., Fed - FOMC meeting TAVHL is to announce 4Q14 minutes results (Seker E: € 30mn, Consensus: € 26mn) Outlook: Volume (mn TRY) BIST 100 The BIST 100 closed higher yesterday at par with global markets thanks to speculation that Greece and Euro zone officials would reach a deal 8.000 86.083 85.809 86.041 granting Athens an extension on its loans. Accordingly, the BIST 100 85.442 closed 1.20% higher at 85,442 on a turnover of TRY 3.4bn. Today, we 86.000 may see a positive opening as the TRY is trading stronger against the USD 6.000 84.425 at USD 2.4420, and Brent is also significantly lower at USD 59.44 as of 84.000 print-perhaps helping to lift the grounded airline companies due to massive 4.000 snow in Istanbul. Yesterday's FOMC minutes were also EM friendly, hinting 5.412 at sustained close-to-0% interest rates. Resistance Levels: 86,000–86,600. 2.000 82.000 Support Levels: 84,900–83,700. 4.224 3.980 3.381 0 3.022 80.000 Money Market: 12-Feb 13-Feb 16-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb The Lira was negative yesterday as the local currency weakened 0.37% against the USD to close at the day low of 2.4595. Additionally, the Lira depreciated by 0.29% against the basket composed of $0.50 and €0.50. Indices (TRY) Previous Last Chg. YTD Meanwhile, the local fixed income markets were relatively flat. The two- BIST 100 84.425 85.442 1,20% -0,33% year benchmark bond was traded within a range of 8.07% - 8.28%, ending BIST 30 104.075 105.448 1,32% -0,66% at 8.13%, 3 Bps above its previous close. BIST-Financial 114.674 116.508 1,60% 1,11% BIST-Industrial 77.731 78.404 0,87% -0,41% BIST-Services 60.485 60.734 0,41% -2,35% Company News: Turkish Airlines (THYAO) has cancelled more than 350 flights scheduled Advances Declines Most Active Stocks (%) Stocks (%) Stocks Vol (TR) for Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally, all flights to and from Ataturk TARAF 19,93 METAL -11,11 GARAN 736.384.129 Airport were canceled due to snowfall. IHMAD 18,40 OZBAL -10,28 HALKB 313.234.605 VESBE 17,76 EMKEL -5,52 THYAO 274.916.260 TAV Airports Holding (TAVHL.TI; OP) is to announce its 4Q14 financials DENGE 12,19 SODSN -4,63 VAKBN 252.063.765 today after market close. We expect a net profit of € 30mn, while the market GLYHO 10,34 SRVGY -4,15 ISCTR 186.234.276 expectation is for a € 26mn net profit. We also expect net sales revenues Money Market Previous Last Pr. Mn YE14 and EBITDA of € 232mn and € 87mn in 4Q14, while the market consensus O/N Repo (%) 9,95 9,77 9,97 10,04 is at € 225mn and € 86mn. Meanwhile, we expect quarterly EBITDAR to Euro Bond (30 year, $) 178,50 178,50 179,13 177,00 reach € 124mn (Market estimate: € 123mn). Bond (Benchmark, %) 8,1 8,13 7,49 8,02 Ford Otosan has announced a net profit of TRY 119mn for 4Q14 (-4.8% Currency Previous Last Chg. YTD YoY, -2.5% QoQ), significantly below our TRY 211mn forecast and excep- US$ 2,4505 2,4595 0,37% 5,49% tionally below the market consensus of TRY 191mn. In 4Q14, the YoY fluc- Euro 2,7915 2,7975 0,21% -1,08% tuation mainly originated from a slightly decreased gross profit margin as a Euro/Dolar 1,1398 1,1421 0,20% -5,33% result of lower unit sales of the Company’s most profitable Transit model. Commodity Previous Last Chg. YTD Moreover, lower net other operational income mostly stemming from net FX Oil (Brent spot, $) 59,3 59,6 0,40% 4,00% gains and TRY 30.7mn deferred tax expense (4Q13: TRY 68.5mn deferred Oil (NYMEX future, $) 52,1 50,6 -2,99% -5,60% tax gains, due to tax incentives related to new model investments) led to Gold (Ounce, $) 1.212,8 1.216,7 0,32% 2,45% the drop in net income. On the other hand, lower net financial expenses of Silver (XAG, $) 16,5 16,7 1,00% 5,11% TRY 40.7mn (4Q13: TRY 90.3mn) resulting from FX loss due to TRY de- preciation, positively supported net income. The stock trades at 15.2x Şeker Funds Previous Last* Chg. YTD 2015E EV/EBITDA, indicating a 64% premium compared to its peers’ 9.3x. Şekerbank A T. Shares 0,330100 0,333568 1,05% 0,17% We maintain our “Market Perform” recommendation and target price of TRY Şekerbank B T. Bond&Bill 0,021433 0,021437 0,02% 0,54% 31.50. In addition, Ford Otosan has announced its 2015E guidance. Ac- Şekerbank B T. Liquid 0,949765 0,949988 0,02% 1,09% cordingly, the Company expects a total local market of 895k units, its own Şeker Yat. A T. Mix 0,017888 0,017943 0,31% -0,30% domestic sales to reach 119k units (+30.7%), exports of 232k (20.8%), Şeker Yat. B T. Gold 0,015991 0,015897 -0,59% 6,52% production of 305k and Capex of USD 230mn. Şekerbank B T. Short T. Bond&Bill 0,011465 0,011467 0,02% 0,77% * Prices as of 19-Feb-15 Market Watch Thursday, February 19, 2015 www.sekeryatirim.com.tr >>> World Indices America Previous Last Chg. YTD Dow Jones (US) 18.048 18.030 -0,10% 1,16% Nasdaq (US) 4.899 4.906 0,14% 3,60% S&P 500 (US) 2.100 2.100 -0,03% 1,98% Bovespa (Brasil) 50.636 51.280 1,27% 2,55% Merval (Argentina) 9.562 9.513 -0,51% 10,89% Mexico Bolsa (Mexico) 43.252 43.054 -0,46% -0,21% Europe Previous Last Chg. YTD Dax (Germany) 10.896 10.961 0,60% 11,78% FTSE 100 (UK) 6.898 6.898 0,00% 5,06% CAC 40 (France) 4.754 4.799 0,95% 12,32% WSE WIG (Poland) 52.641 52.477 -0,31% 2,06% Prague (Czech Republic) 1.008 1.007 -0,09% 6,36% Budapest (Hungary) 17.913 18.082 0,94% 8,71% RTSI (Rusya) 895 929 3,88% 17,53% Asia Previous Last Chg. YTD Nikkei (Japan) 17.987 18.199 1,18% 4,29% Hang Seng (Hong Kong) 24.785 24.832 0,19% 5,20% Shanghai Comp. (China) 3.247 3.247 0,00% 0,38% KOSPI (South Korea) 1.961 1.961 0,00% 2,39% ASX 100 Index (Australia) 5.822 5.878 0,95% 9,08% Turkdex (Set. Price) Previous Last Chg. YTD INX30 (FEBRUARY 15) 104,625 105,800 1,12% -1,08% USD (FEBRUARY 15) 2,4654 2,4647 -0,03% 4,25% EURO (FEBRUARY 15) 2,8048 2,7984 -0,23% -2,46% GOLD (FEBRUARY 15) 95,600 95,840 0,25% 5,20% Portfolio Inclusio Inclusio Last Chg.BIST Recommend. Date Price Close (%) Re lative Vakifbank 25.04.14 4,21 5,35 27,1% 7,7% Turkcell 04.05.12 8,83 13,75 55,7% 8,0% Halkbank 29.01.15 16,35 15,30 -6,4% -1,1% Migros 03.04.14 17,65 22,00 24,6% 3,1% Trakya Cam 24.12.13 2,23 3,58 60,5% 27,9% BIM 29.01.15 49,15 48,50 -1,3% 4,3% Turkish Airlines 20.01.14 6,79 9,33 37,4% 5,6% Emlak Konut REIT 29.01.15 3,28 3,22 -1,8% 3,8% Portfolio Yield (yoy) 46,4% 9,1% Portfolio Yield (mom) -2,1% 3,5% FROTO >>> TRY Million 2013 2014 YoY 4Q13 4Q14 YoY 3Q14 QoQ Revenues 11.405 11.925 4,6% 3.327 3.822 14,9% 2.889 32,3% Gross Profit 1.128 1.131 0,3% 314 344 9,6% 312 10,2% Gross Profit Margin 9,9% 9,5% 9,4% 9,0% 10,8% EBIT 558 527 ‐5,6% 132 161 22,1% 146 10,6% EBIT Margin 4,9% 4,4% 4,0% 4,2% 5,1% EBITDA 744 831 11,7% 181 250 38,0% 229 9,0% EBITDA Margin 6,5% 7,0% 5,4% 6,5% 7,9% Net Profit 641 595 ‐7,3% 125 119 ‐4,8% 122 ‐2,5% Net Profit Margin 5,6% 5,0% 3,8% 3,1% 4,2% This document has been prepared by the Equity Research Department of Şeker Invest. The information and data used in this report have been obtained from public sources that are thought to be reliable and complete. However, Şeker Invest does not accept responsibility for any errors and omissions. This document should not be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities herein. This document is to be distributed to qualified emerging market investors only. Şeker Yatırım Menkul Degerler A.S. - Buyukdere Cad. No:171 Metrocity A Blok Kat 4-5 SISLI /ISTANBUL Tel: (+90) 212 334 33 33 Pbx, Fax: (+90) 212 334 33 34, [email protected] .