GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING: TARGET PATTERNS OF SERIAL MURDERERS Darcy Kim Rossmo M.A., Simon Fraser University, 1987 DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in the School of Criminology O Darcy Kim Rossmo 1995 SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY October 1995 All rights reserved. This work may not be reproduced in whole or in part, by photocopy or other means, without permission of the author. APPROVAL Name: Darcy Kim Rossmo Degree: ' Doctor of Philosophy Title of Dissertation: Geographic Profiling: Target Patterns of Serial Murderers Examining Committee: Chair: Joan Brockrnan, LL.M. d'T , (C I - Paul J. ~>ahtin~harp~~.,Dip. Crim. Senior Supervisor Professor,, School of Criminology \ I John ~ow&an,PhD Professor, School of Criminology John C. Yuille, PhD Professor, Department of Psychology Universim ofJritish Columbia I I / u " ~odcalvert,PhD, P.Eng. Internal External Examiner Professor, Department of Computing Science #onald V. Clarke, PhD External Examiner Dean, School of Criminal Justice Rutgers University Date Approved: O&Zb& I 3, 1 9 9.5' PARTIAL COPYRIGHT LICENSE I hereby grant to Simon Fraser Universi the right to lend my thesis, pro'ect or extended essay (the title o? which is shown below) to users otJ the Simon Fraser University Library, and to make partial or single copies only for such users or in response to a request from the library of any other university, or other educational institution, on its own behalf or for one of its users. I further agree that permission for multiple copying of this work for scholarly purposes may be granted by me or the Dean of Graduate Studies. It is understood that copying or publication of this work for financial gain shall not be allowed without my written permission. Geographic Profiling: Target Patterns of Serial Murderers Author: - (signature) Darcy Kim Rossmo (name) gG //.OF (date) This PhD dissertation is an analysis of the spatial patterns produced by the hunting behaviour and target locations of serial murderers. Hunting behaviour refers to the victim search and attack processes engaged in by an offender, while target locations are the various geographic sites connected to a crime series. For serial murder these include victim encounter, attack, murder, and body dump sites. The patterns and methods of serial killer hunting activity were analyzed from a geography of crime perspective, and the Brantingham and Brantingham model of crime site selection used as a means of conceptualizing the relationship between offender activity space and crime site location. This study had three specific purposes which were, in increasing order of importance: (1) to add to the knowledge of serial murder; (2) to examine the geography of serial murder at both macro and microlevels; and (3) to construct a method for determining the most probable area of offender residence from the locations of the crimes. The dissertation research has subsequently led to the development of geographic profiling, an information management strategy for serial violent crime investigation. Increased knowledge of the spatial behaviour of serial killers can assist in the investigation of their murders in a variety of ways. Police strategies resulting from a geographic profile have included: (1) prioritization of suspects by area for investigative follow-up; (2) augmentation of psychological profiles with information on offender movement; (3) geographic deployment of directed patrol efforts; and (4) searches of computer databases by address or postallzip code. Serial killers are rare, but when they do strike the public and the criminal justice system are both significantly affected. Beyond the violence and tragedy of the crimes, serial murder produces tremendous fear levels in the community, generates heavy pressures for investigating agencies, and demands significant resources from police, courts, and prisons. Consequently, research that adds to our understanding of how and where these violent predators hunt their victims has both practical and theoretical implications. DEDICATION Dedicated to those who chase the hunters. "It is quite a three-pipe problem." Sherlock Holmes, in The Red-Headed League, Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, 1891. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Like much academic research, this study is the product of the work of many people in addition to the author. First and foremost I would like to thank my PhD committee for their support and guidance: Professor Paul Brantingham, my supervisor, School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University; Professor John Lowman, School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University; and Professor John Yuille, Department of Psychology, University of British Columbia. I would also like to acknowledge the encouragement and assistance of the following researchers and authors: Professor Eric Hickey, Department of Criminology, California State University; Professor Steven Egger, Criminal Justice Program, Sangamon State University; Professor James LeBeau, Center For the Study of Crime, Delinquency, and Corrections, Southern Illinois University; Professor George Rengert, Department of Criminal Justice, Temple University; Jonathan Alston, School of Criminology, Simon Fraser University; Anne Davies, Police Research Group, Home Office; and Doctor Janet Jackson, NISCALE. As an investigative technique, geographic profiling owes a debt to the following police officers: Chief Constable Ray Canuel, Vancouver Police vii Department; Inspector Ken Doern, Community Services Section, Vancouver Police Department; Staff Sergeant Doug MacKay-DUM, Vancouver Integrated Intelligence Unit; Inspector Ron MacKay, Violent Crime Analysis Branch, Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Corporal Keith Davidson, Violent Crime Unit, Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Dr. Roland Reboussin, Investigative Support Unit, Federal Bureau of Investigation; Sergeant John House, Criminal Investigation Division, Royal Newfoundland Constabulary; Corporal Guy Pollock, Coordinated Law Enforcement Unit Intelligence Section; and Corporal Steve Hess, Police Academy, Justice Institute of British Columbia. Supervisory Special Agent Judson Ray, Behavioral Science Unit, Federal Bureau of Investigation, facilitated the initial data collection from the National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime. Janice Campbell-Barnett, Kim Bufton, Rebecca Wall, Laurie Henderson, Rose Chow, and Kevin Bomycastie all supplied invaluable research assistance. A debt of gratitude must also go to Lieutenant Debra Davidoski, District 5, Milwaukee Police Department. And the students of my Crim 41416 class, The Phenomenon of Serial Murder, more than adequately demonstrated that learning occurs on both sides of the podium. Finally, a special thanks to Ian Laverty, MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, whose programming expertise and advice made this research possible. TABLE OF CONTENTS .. APPROVAL 11 ... ABSTRACT 111 DEDICATION v QUOTAnON vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii LIST OF TABLES xiv LIST OF FIGURES xvi LIST OF EQUATIONS xix FOREWORD xxi I. INTRODUCTION 11. SERIAL MURDER The Phenomenon of Serial Murder Incidence and Population Estimates The Increase of Serial Murder Definitions and Typologies Theories of Serial Murder Victimology Serial Murder Investigation Investigative Difficulties Police Strategies Psychological Profiling Linkage Analysis Other Investigative Tactics The Geography of Serial Murder 111. THE GEOGRAPHY OF CRIME Geography and Crime Studies Centrography Nearest Neighbour Analysis Movement and Distance Mental Maps Awareness and Activity Spaces Anchor Points Journey to Crime Research Environmental Criminology The Brantingham and Brantingham Model of Crime Site Selection Crime Site Geography and Target Patterns Hunting Grounds Target Backcloth Crime Locations Offender Type Method of Victim Disposal Learning and Displacement Geography and Crime Investigation IV. METHODOLOGY Macrolevel Data Newspaper Data Sources Microlevel Data Sampling Procedure Data Coding Macrolevel Analysis Serial Murderer Hunting Typology Search and Attack Methods Hunting Style Microlevel Analysis Offender Residence Prediction Criminal Geographic Targeting v. RESULTS Macrolevel Analysis Serial Murderers State Comparisons Microlevel Analysis Case Descriptions and Maps Richard Chase Albert DeSalvo Clifford Olson Angelo Buono and Kenneth Bianchi Peter Sutcliffe Richard Ramirez David Berkowitz Jeffrey Dahmer Joel Rifkin John Collins Aileen Wuornos Ian Brady and Myra Hindley Jerry Brudos Serial Murder Characteristics Serial Killers Victims Crime Locations Criminal Geographic Targeting Results Model Optimization Model Parameters Validity Reliability Utility VI. DISCUSSION Implications for the Geography of Crime Crime Location Sets Crime Site Clusters Crime Trip Distance Increase xii Geographic Profiling The Profiling Process Profile Considerations Operational Procedure Investigative Strategies Suspect Prioritization Patrol Saturation and Static Stakeouts Neighbourhood Canvasses Police Information Systems Outside Agency Databases Postal Code Prioritization Task Force Computer Systems Violent Sex Offender Registries Peak-of-Tension Polygraphy Bloodings Trial Court Expert Evidence VII. CONCLUSION APPENDICES A. SERIAL MURDER DATA SET B. DATA CODING FORMS C. DATA CODING GUIDELINES D. GEOGRAPHIC PROFILING REQUIREMENTS BIBLIOGRAPHY .. Xlll LIST OF TABLES Table Page Characteristics of the Holmes and De Burger Serial Murderer Typology Journey to Crime Research Selection Criteria for Microlevel Data Set Serial Killer Hunting Typology and Geographic Analysis Feasibility Serial Murderer