Effective Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services in Lao PDR Research Reports ISSN 2202-7432 MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF ANTI-POACHING PATROLS ON WILDLIFE DIVERSITY IN THE PHOU CHOMVOY PROVICINAL PROTECTED AREA Research Report No. 11 January 2017 Eric J. Haya, Marit Kragta, Michael Rentonb, Chanthavy Vongkhamhengc The project ‘Effective Implementation of Payments for Environmental Services in Lao PDR’ is funded by the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (ACIAR). The reports produced within this project are published by the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University, Canberra, 0200 Australia. The reports present work in progress being undertaken by the project team. The views and interpretations expressed in these reports are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to any organization associated with the project. Because these reports present the results of work in progress, they should not be reproduced in part or in whole without the authorization of the Australian Project Leader, Professor Jeff Bennett ([email protected]). a School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia b School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia c Lao Wildlife Conservation Association (Lao WCA) Abstract Worldwide, wildlife poaching results in significant losses to biodiversity, especially for those species which are most vulnerable and at risk of extinction. Strategies exist for reducing poaching pressure, including anti-poaching patrols that collect and remove wire snares. Studies are available that focus on the impact of poaching. Yet, not much work evaluates the effectiveness of poaching mitigation actions. We outline a modelling methodology that aims to predict the effectiveness of different management strategies on the poaching problem in the Phou Chomvoy Provincial Protected Area, Bolikhamxay Province, Lao PDR. Wildlife management in the study involves the local community through villager-led anti-poaching patrols. The goal is to develop a quantified relationship between patrol inputs and biodiversity outcomes. The results show that, without patrols, 18 out of the 19 species investigated would be poached and removed from the protected area over the next ten years. At low levels of patrol-effort ten species would survive. With increasing patrol effort, the total number of animals and species saved increase, but with diminishing marginal effect on species count improvement. At the highest patrol-effort management scenario modelled, all species are saved except for one; the Northern Pig-Tailed Macaque, which goes extinct under all management scenarios. This is the first time modelling has been undertaken at this scale to examine poacher- patrol interaction in the Southeast Asia region. Our work shows a positive effect of patrol effort on the number of endangered species saved. This work will be used to inform protected area management policy in Lao PDR, specifically, the development of Payment for Environmental Services schemes. Key words: Anti-poaching Patrols; Biodiversity; Bio-physical Modelling; Payment for Environmental Services; Protected Area Management Table of Content Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 4 2. Background to the issue............................................................................................... 5 3. Research objectives ...................................................................................................... 7 4. Description of the study site ........................................................................................ 8 5. Poaching in Lao PDR................................................................................................. 10 6. Target species identification...................................................................................... 12 7. Methods ....................................................................................................................... 23 8. Model scenarios .......................................................................................................... 39 9. Assumptions................................................................................................................ 41 10. Results ......................................................................................................................... 43 11. Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 52 Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................. 54 References ............................................................................................................................... 55 Appendix 1: Species likely to be present in the PCV PPA ................................................. 58 Appendix 2: Species population data sources ..................................................................... 60 Appendix 3: Sensitivity Analysis results .............................................................................. 64 Page | 3 1. Introduction This research report develops an ‘environmental production function’ that quantifies the relationship between anti-poaching patrol effort and biodiversity outcomes through species population modelling within the Phou Chomvoy Provincial Protected Area (PCV PPA). The ‘environmental production function’ will be an integral component of a pilot Payment for Environmental Services (PES) scheme (Lao-Australia Wildlife Protection Scheme – LAWPS) that is being developed within the project ‘Effective Implementation of PES in Lao PDR’ (henceforth called ‘PES project’). It will be used to convert inputs (anti-poaching patrols) into outputs (biodiversity outcomes). This conversion is required to link environmental services supply and demand within the pilot PES scheme. This report not only provides an ‘environmental production function’ for the LAWPS but also a modelling framework that can be used to inform future PES schemes focused on biodiversity protection that may be developed and implemented in Lao PDR. The model development was conducted partly as the Honours Project of Mr. Eric Hay at the University of Western Australia. This report draws on Research Report 8: Phou Chomvoy Provincial Protected Area: A Biodiversity Baseline Assessment (Vongkhamheng 2015) and Research Report 9: Lao- Australian Wildlife Protection Scheme (LAWPS) for the Phou Chomvoy Provincial Protected Area for the Phou Chomvoy Provincial Protected Area (Scheufele et al. 2016). Research Report 8 provided the results of a wildlife baseline survey, while Research Report 9 provided an overview of the wildlife protection scheme based on community engagement and anti-poaching patrols. Page | 4 2. Background to the issue Poaching is a global problem that significantly impacts biodiversity through direct removal of target species (Pratt et al., 2004; Steinmetz et al., 2014; Vongkhamheng et al., 2013). Poaching is a biodiversity conservation problem that can have far-reaching ecosystem and environmental health effects (Becker et al., 2013; Robbins et al., 2006). Poaching also has socio-economic impacts such as the reliance observed in some African and Asian communities on poaching as a source of income or as a source of primary consumption (Pratt et al., 2004; Steinmetz et al., 2014). Poaching is defined as violations of conservation rules, including illegal hunting, resource use, and extraction (Robbins et al., 2006; Conteh et al., 2015). Most poaching methods include baited traps and wire snares that not only catch the target animal but also anything else that may come into contact with the trap as bycatch (Becker et al., 2013). The indiscriminate nature of snare trapping leads to excessive damage to all species occupying targeted areas, exemplified by large ungulates being caught as bycatch of tiger poaching (Vongkhamheng et al., 2013). Furthermore, removal of key species, or those which provide top-down control such as tigers and other apex predators, has widespread effects on the entire ecosystem (Burkholder et al., 2013; Colman et al., 2014). Complex ecosystem-wide interactions make understanding the poaching problem difficult and finding the most effective solutions to poaching harder still. The complexity of poaching and the often sensitive nature of poaching management have implications for conservation species and also for local communities that may rely on hunting for food and subsistence (Steinmetz et al., 2014; Pratt et al., 2004). A major gap in knowledge is the effect of poaching mitigation measures on biodiversity (Steinmetz et al., 2014). This is complicated in the Lao context due to the limited availability of species counts and abundance data (Vongkhamheng et al., 2013). The aim of this research report is to fill this knowledge gap in the presence of deficient data. Lao PDR is an internationally recognised biodiversity hotspot1. Logging and hunting represent the greatest contributors to habitat destruction and loss of animal life (Timmins & 1 See Appendix 1 for conservation species list. Page | 5 Vongkhamheng 1996). These activities occur both legally through controlled and subsistence hunting and logging, and illegally