University of Exeter Heart of the South West LEP Skills Advisory Panel Baseline analysis of employment and skills conditions: 2019 CONTENTS 1. introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .................. 5 1.1 Purpose of this report ................................ ................................ ............................. 5 1.2 Matching skills demand and skills supply ................................ ............................... 5 1.3 Influencing skills demand ................................ ................................ ....................... 6 2. R egional economic development policy context ................................ ....................... 8 2.1 Smart Specialisation & European Structural & Investment Funds .......................... 8 2.2 Shared Prosperity Funds ................................ ................................ ....................... 9 2.3 Area based Investments ................................ ................................ ...................... 10 2.4. Enterprise Zones ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 12 2.4.1. Oceansgate, Plymouth 13 2.4.2. Gravity Enterprise Zone 13 2. 4.3. The Exeter and East Devon Enterprise Zone (EEDEZ) 14 2.4.4. The University of Exeter Enterprise Zone 14 2.5. Heart of the South West Local Industrial Strategy ................................ ................ 14 2.6. Digital Strategy, Digital Skills Partnerships and the Digital Skills Innovation Fund 17 3. Inclusion and employment Policy ................................ ................................ ............. 19 3.1. Welfare reforms ................................ ................................ ................................ ... 19 3.2. The Work and Health Programme ................................ ................................ ........ 20 3.3. Disability Employment Gap Commitment ................................ ............................. 20 3.4. Fuller Working Lives ................................ ................................ ............................ 21 3.5. Opportunity areas ................................ ................................ ................................ 22 4. Employment & Skills Policy ................................ ................................ ...................... 23 4.1 Careers Hubs, Enterprise Coordinators and Advisers ................................ .......... 23 4.2. National Retraining Scheme ................................ ................................ ................ 24 4.3. Adult Education Budget ................................ ................................ ........................ 24 4.4. A pprenticeships and Traineeships ................................ ................................ ....... 26 4.5. T levels ................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 27 4.6. Level 4 and 5 ................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 28 4.7. Higher level skills (including Advanced Learner Loans) ................................ ........ 29 4.8. Careers and employment engagement in skills and work ................................ ..... 29 4.9. Institutes of Technology ................................ ................................ ....................... 30 4.10. Reforms including those to grow the profile of technical education routes ........ 31 4.11. Labour Education Policy ................................ ................................ ................... 32 5. S patial and demographic context ................................ ................................ ............. 33 5.1. Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 33 5.2. Resident population ................................ ................................ ............................. 35 5.3. Age structure of the population ................................ ................................ ............ 38 5.4. Ethnic origin ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 40 5.5. Residents born outside the UK ................................ ................................ ............. 41 5.6. Population change ................................ ................................ ............................... 41 5.7. Migration ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 43 5.8. Commuti ng ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 44 5.9. Travel to Work Areas (TTWA) ................................ ................................ .............. 52 5.10. Travel to education ................................ ................................ ........................... 53 6. Business and economic context ................................ ................................ ............... 56 6.1. Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 56 6.2. Business population ................................ ................................ ............................. 56 6.1.1. Current business profile 56 6. 1.2. Change over time 60 6.1.3. Business Births and Deaths 62 6.1.4. New business formation 63 6.1.5. Business Survival Rates 63 6. 3. Economic output ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 64 6.3.1. Current economic profile 64 6.3.2. Economic growth 68 6.3.3. Sectoral trends 69 6.4. Emplo yment ................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 70 6.4.1. Level and characteristics of employment 70 6.4.2. Sectoral strengths 71 6.4.3. Employment change 77 6.5. Pro ductivity ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 80 6.6. Earnings ................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 84 6.6.1. Variations within the LEP area 84 7. Labour demand ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 88 7.1. Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 88 7.2. Characteristics of current employment demand ................................ ................... 88 7.3. Trends in employment demand ................................ ................................ ............ 91 7.4. Vacancies ................................ ................................ ................................ ............ 93 7.5. Recruitment practices ................................ ................................ .......................... 98 7.6. Staff retention ................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 99 7.7. Redundancies ................................ ................................ ................................ .... 101 7.8. Upskilling ................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 101 7.9. Employer investment in training ................................ ................................ ......... 104 7.10. Barriers to training and employment ................................ ............................... 107 7.11. Prospects for labour and skills demand ................................ .......................... 109 7.12. Vulnerability to technological change ................................ .............................. 120 8. Labour Supply ................................ ................................ ................................ .......... 124 8.1. Introduction ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 124 8.2. Economic activity rates ................................ ................................ ...................... 125 8.3. Employment rate ................................ ................................ ................................ 127 8.4. Self - employment ................................ ................................ ................................ 130 8.5. Part time working ................................ ................................ ............................... 130 8.6. Tempo rary contracts ................................ ................................ .......................... 131 8.7. Occupational structure ................................ ................................ ....................... 131 8.8. Industrial structure ................................ ................................ ............................. 132 9. Skills infrastructure ................................ ................................ ................................ .. 134 9.1. Int roduction ................................ ................................ ................................ ........ 134 9.2. Further education ................................ ................................ ............................... 134 9.2.1. Delivery of government funded further education and skills 134 9.2.2. Quality of Further Education Providers 141 9.3. Higher education provision ...............................