Tuesday 3rd December 2019 05:30-07:00 Welcome reception and poster session 1 Wednesday 4th December 2019 08:30-08:40 Welcome and opening remarks by session chair 08:40-09:10 [INV01] Changing Dynamics of the US Drug Overdose Epidemic Donald (Don) S. Burke, University of Pittsburgh, USA 09:10-09:50 [INV02] From dependent happenings to causal inference with interference Betz Halloran, University of Washington, USA and Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, USA 09:50-10:30 [INV03] How to get a good travel history from a malaria parasite Bryan Greenhouse, University of California San Francisco, USA 10:30-11:00 Refreshment break 11:00-12:40 Session 1 Vaccination 1 Session 2 Dynamics Session 3 Phylodynamics 1 11:00-11:20 [O1.1] Successes and failures [O2.1] The influence of birth [O3.1] Phylodynamic of the live-attenuated rate and meteorological inference of transmission influenza vaccine: can we indices on the temporal pathways for pathogens with do better? patterns of rotavirus infection low genetic diversity using L. Matrajt*1, E. Halloran1,2, R. in Dhaka, Bangladesh the Kolmogorov Forward Antia3 E.O. Asare*1, M.A. Al- Equations 1Fred Hutchinson Cancer Mamun1, M. Sarmin2, A.S.G. G. Rossi*1, J. Crispell2, S.J. Research Center, Faruque2, T. Ahmed2, V.E. Lycett1, D. Balaz1, R.J. USA, 2University of Pitzer1 Delahay3, R.R. Kao1 Washington, USA, 3Emory 1Yale School of Public Health, 1University of Edinburgh, University, USA USA, 2International Centre for UK, 2University College Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dublin, Ireland, 3APHA, UK Bangladesh (ICDDR, B), Bangladesh 11:20-11:40 [O1.2] Direct and indirect [O2.2] Environmental and [O3.2] Deep learning from effects of immunising school- Demographic Drivers of phylogenies to understand age children against Respiratory Syncytial Virus the dynamics of epidemics influenza: evidence from a (RSV) Transmission in the US J. Voznica*1,2, A. Zhukova1, T. three year pilot programme K. Sun*1, C. Viboud1, Z. Dot1, K. Ocaña1, F. Lemoine1, in England Karaca2 M. Moslonka-Lefebvre1, O. E. van Leeuwen*1, R.G. 1Fogarty International Gascuel1 Pebody1, P. Klepac3, S. Riley2, Center, National Institutes of 1Unité Bioinformatique M. Baguelin2 Health, Bethesda, MD, Evolutive, Institut Pasteur, 1Public Health England, USA, 2Agency for Healthcare C3BI – USR 3756 IP & CNRS, UK, 2Imperial College Research and Quality, Paris, France, 2Université Paris London, UK, 3London School Rockville, MD, USA Descartes, Sorbonne Paris for Hygiene & Tropical Cité, Paris, France Medicine, UK 11:40-12:00 [O1.3] Potential public health [O2.3] Evidence synthesis [O3.3] Statistical inference of benefits from reduced delay revealing the transmission epidemiological parameters: in the production of dynamics of Respiratory what is the value of virus pandemic influenza vaccine Syncytial Virus (RSV) and phylogenies? K. Ainslie*, D. Haw, J. Hay, C. impact of vaccination F. Giardina*1,2, T. Britton1 Walters, A. Yan, S. Riley M. van Boven*1, A. Teirlinck1, 1Stockholm Univeristy, Dept Inf Dis Epi, Imperial R. Reeves2, M. Hooiveld1, A. Sweden, 2Erasmus MC, The College, UK Meijer1, W. van der Hoek1 Netherlands 1National Institute for Public Health, The Netherlands, 2University of Edinburgh, UK 12:00-12:20 [O1.4] Drivers of uneven [O2.4] Dynamics of cholera [O3.4] High-resolution gene-specific evolutionary outbreaks in sub-Saharan mapping of respiratory rates shaping microbial Africa pathogens in the Seattle genomes in highly Q. Zheng*, J. Kaminsky, H. Metro area vaccinated populations McKay, A. Azman, J. Lessler M. Famulare*1, T. Bedford2, A. Bento*1,2, A. King3, R. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg M. Boeckh2, H.Y. Chu3, J.A. Taujale2, T. Bosch4, C. Schot4, School of Public Health, Englund4, B.R. Lutz3, D.A. P. Rohani2 Baltimore, USA Nickerson3, M. Rieder3, L.M. 1Indiana University, Starita3, M. Thompson3 et al USA, 2University of Georgia, 1Institute for Disease USA, 3University of Michigan, Modeling, USA, 2University of USA, 4RIVM, The Netherlands Washington, USA, 3Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, USA, 4Seattle Children’s Hospital, USA, 5Blaze Clinical, USA, 6Microsoft, USA, 7Kaiser Permanente Research Institute, USA 12:20-12:40 [O1.5] Comparison of rubella [O2.5] Unraveling the [O3.5] Estimating transmission models and results: The seasonal epidemiology of bottleneck sizes from viral effects of small variations in pneumococcus variants unique to recipient methods, assumptions, and M. Domenech de Celles1,2, H. hosts data Arduin1,2, D. Lévy-Bruhl4, S. J. Harris*1, K. Johnson2, K. S. Truelove1, A.K. Winter*1, T. Georges4, C. Souty3,5, D. Koelle1 Papadopolous2, C.J.E. Guillemot1,2, L. Watier1,3, L. 1Emory University, USA, 2New Metcalf3,4, J. Lessler1, E. Opatowski*1,2 York University, USA Vynnycky2,5 1Université de Versailles Saint 1Johns Hopkins University, Quentin, France, 2Institut USA, 2Public Health England, Pasteur, France, 3Inserm, UK, 3Princeton University, France, 4Santé Publique USA, 4University of Oxford, France, France, 5Sorbonne UK, 5London School of Université, France Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK 12:40-13:40 Lunch 12:40-13:40 Author workshop 13:40-15:40 Session 4 Vaccination 2 Session 5 Forecasting Session 6 HIV 13:40-14:00 [O4.1] Estimating sample size [O5.1] FluSight: Six seasons of [O6.1] Bayesian synthesis of for future chikungunya forecasting influenza in the behavioural survey data: vaccine trials based on United States, 2013-14 to estimating the potential projections of epidemic size 2018-19 impact of pre-exposure that account for pre-existing M. Biggerstaff*, F.S. Dahlgren, prophylaxis on the HIV immunity C.S. Lutz, M.A. Johansson, C. epidemic Q. Tran*1, J. Soda1, A. Siraj1, S. Reed M. Irvine1 Moore1, H. Clapham2,3, A. Centers for Disease Control 1University of British Columbia, Perkins1 and Prevention, USA Canada, 2British Columbia 1University of Notre Dame, Centre for Disease Control, USA, 2Oxford University Canada Clinical Research Unit, Viet Nam, 3University of Oxford, UK 14:00-14:20 [O4.2] Evaluating [O5.2] Accuracy of multi- [O6.2] Natural selection prophylactic Ebola model ensemble influenza favoring more transmissible vaccination in the presence forecasts in the US: Results HIV detected in U.S. of reactive ring vaccination from the 2017/2018 and molecular transmission C.A.B. Pearson*1, T.J. 2018/2019 seasons network Hladish2, W.J. Edmunds1, R.M. N.G. Reich*1, C.J. J.O. Wertheim*1, A.M. Oster2, Eggo1 McGowan2, T.K. Yamana3, W.M. Switzer2, C. Zhang2, N. 1London School of Hygiene & E.L. Ray4, D. Osthus5, S. Panneer2, E. Campbell2, N. Tropical Medicine, Kandula3, L.C. Brooks6, G.C. Saduvala3, J.A. Johnson2, W. UK, 2University of Florida, USA Gibson1, N. Wattanachit1, M. Heneine2 Biggerstaff2 et al 1University of California San 1University of Massachusetts Diego, USA, 2Centers for Amherst, USA, 2Centers for Disease Control and Disease Control and Prevention, USA, 3ICF Prevention, USA, 3Columbia International, USA University, USA, 4Mount Holyoke College, USA, 5Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA, 6Carnegie Mellon University, USA 14:20-14:40 [O4.3] Predicting evolution [O5.3] Integrative forecasting [O6.3] Using phylogenies to using frequency-dependent of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 detect fitness differences and selection in bacterial evolution by genotype and selection among HIV-1 populations phenotype strains of different viral load T. Azarian*1,2, P.P. Martinez2, J. Huddleston*1,2, R. Neher3,4, L. Zhao*, L. Ferretti, C. L.R. Grant3, J. Corander4,5, C. T. Bedford1 Fraser et al Fraser7, N.J. Croucher8, L.L. 1Fred Hutchinson Cancer University of Oxford, UK Hammitt3, K.L. O’Brien9, M. Research Center, Lipsitch2, W.P. Hanage2 et al USA, 2University of 1University of Central Florida, Washington, USA, 3University USA, 2Harvard University, of Basel, Switzerland, 4SIB USA, 3Johns Hopkins Swiss Institute of Bloomberg School of Public Bioinformatics, Switzerland Health, USA, 4University of Helsinki, Finland, 5University of Oslo, Norway, 6Wellcome Trust Genome Campus, UK, 7University of Oxford, UK, 8Imperial College London, UK, 9World Health Organization, Switzerland 14:40-15:00 [O4.4] How should the [O5.4] Real-time forecasting [O6.4] Quantifying the dynamics of EBV transmission of epidemic trajectories contribution of different-aged inform a vaccine target using computational men and women to onwards product profile and future dynamic ensembles transmission of HIV-1 in vaccination strategy? G. Chowell*1,2, R. Luo1, K. generalised epidemics in L. Goscé*1, J.R. Winter1,2, G.S. Sun2, K. Roosa1, A. Tariq1, C. sub-Saharan Africa: a Taylor3, J.E.A. Lewis1,4, H.R. Viboud2 modelling and phylogenetics Stagg1,5 1Georgia State University approach from the HPTN071 1University College London, School of Public Health, (PopART) trial UK, 2King's college London, USA, 2Fogarty International M. Hall*1, W. Probert1, X. Xi2, UK, 3University of Birmingham, Center, National Institutes of R. Sauter1, T. Golubchik1, D. UK, 4Imperial College, Health, USA Bonsall1, L. Abeler-Dörner1, M. UK, 5The University of Pickles1, A. Cori2, J. Edinburgh, UK Bwalya3 et al 1University of Oxford, UK, 2Imperial College London, UK, 3Zambart, Zambia, 4London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, 5Stellenbosch University, South Africa, 6Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, USA, 7Johns Hopkins University, USA, 8African Health Research Institute, South Africa 15:00-15:20 [O4.5] The impact of [O5.5] A look into the future - [O6.5] Linking phylogenetic geographic targeting of oral using digital disease topology with HIV cholera vaccination in sub- surveillance tools for near transmission history Saharan Africa: a modelling real-time epidemic C.J. Villabona-Arenas*1, M. study forecasting Hall2, S.G. Gaffney3, K.A. E.C. Lee*1, A.S. Azman1, J. S. Bhatia*1, B. Lassmann2, E. Lythgoe2, S. Hue1, K.E. Kaminsky1, S.M. Moore2, H.S. Cohn3, M. Kraemer4, M. Atkins1,4 McKay1, J. Lessler1 Herringer5, J. Brownstein3, L. 1Centre for Mathematical 1Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Madoff2, A. Cori1, P.