N° 513 - 2019 Economie StatistiqueET ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE / ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE Economics AND Statistics Varia Incertitude des résultats et demande de football - Discriminations dans l'accès au logement - Comportement d'épargne des ménages - Inégalités de qualité nutritionnelle de l'alimentation - Élasticité de la demande d'électricité Outcome Uncertainty and the Demand for Football - Discriminations in Access to Housing - Household Savings Behaviour - Inequality in Food Nutritional Quality - Elasticity of the Demand for Electricity N° 513 - 2019 Conseil scientifique / Scientific Committee Economie Jacques LE CACHEUX, président (Université de Pau et des pays de l’Adour) ET Jérôme BOURDIEU (École d’économie de Paris) Pierre CAHUC (Sciences Po) Statistique Gilbert CETTE (Banque de France et École d’économie d’Aix-Marseille) Yannick L’HORTY (Université de Paris-Est - Marne la Vallée) Daniel OESCH (Life Course and Inequality Research (LINES) et Institut des sciences sociales - Université de Lausanne) Economics Sophie PONTHIEUX (Insee) AND Katheline SCHUBERT (École d’économie de Paris, Université Paris I) Claudia SENIK (Université Paris-Sorbonne et École d’économie de Paris) Statistics Louis-André VALLET (Observatoire sociologique du changement-Sciences Po/CNRS) François-Charles WOLFF (Université de Nantes) Comité éditorial / Editorial Advisory Board Luc ARRONDEL (École d’économie de Paris) Lucio BACCARO (Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies-Cologne et Département de Sociologie-Université de Genève) Antoine BOZIO (Institut des politiques publiques/École d’économie de Paris) Clément CARBONNIER (Théma/Université de Cergy-Pontoise et LIEPP- Sciences Po) Erwan GAUTIER (Banque de France et Université de Nantes) Pauline GIVORD (Ocde et Crest) Florence JUSOT (Université Paris-Dauphine, Leda-Legos et Irdes) François LEGENDRE (Erudite/Université Paris-Est) Claire LELARGE (Université de Paris-Sud, Paris-Saclay et Crest) Claire LOUPIAS (Direction générale du Trésor) Pierre PORA (Insee) Ariell RESHEF (École d'économie de Paris, Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne et CEPII) Thepthida SOPRASEUTH (Théma/Université de Cergy-Pontoise) Directeur de la publication / Director of Publication: Jean-Luc TAVERNIER Rédactrice en chef / Editor in Chief: Sophie PONTHIEUX Responsable éditorial / Editorial Manager: Pascal GODEFROY Assistant éditorial / Editorial Assistant: Étienne de LATUDE Traductions / Translations: RWS Language Solutions Chiltern Park, Chalfont St. Peter, Bucks, SL9 9FG Royaume-Uni Maquette PAO et impression / CAP and printing: JOUVE 1, rue du Docteur-Sauvé, BP3, 53101 Mayenne La revue est en accès libre sur le site www.insee.fr. Il est possible de s’abonner aux avis de parution sur le site. La revue peut être achetée sur le site www.insee.fr, rubrique « Services / Acheter nos publications ». La revue est également en vente dans 200 librairies à Paris et en province. The journal is available in open access on the Insee website www.insee.fr. Publication alerts can be subscribed on-line. The printed version of the journal (in French) can be purchased on the Insee website www.insee.fr. INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA STATISTIQUE ET DES ÉTUDES ÉCONOMIQUES Directeur Général : Jean-Luc TAVERNIER Direction Générale : 88, avenue Verdier, CS 70058, 92541 MONTROUGE Cedex Tél : +33 (0)1 87 69 50 00 N° 513 - 2019 Economie StatistiqueET Economics AND Statistics The views or opinions expressed by the authors engage only themselves, and neither the institutions they work with, nor Insee. Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics Issue 513 – 2019 VARIA 5 Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty? Luc Arrondel and Richard Duhautois 27 Discriminations in Access to Housing: A Test on Urban Areas in Metropolitan France Julie Le Gallo, Yannick L’Horty, Loïc du Parquet and Pascale Petit 47 The Links between Saving Rates, Income and Uncertainty: An Analysis based on the 2011 Household Budget Survey Céline Antonin 69 Four Decades of Household Food Purchases: Changes in Inequalities of Nutritional Quality in France, 1971-2010 France Caillavet, Nicole Darmon, Flavie Létoile and Véronique Nichèle 91 Price Elasticity of Electricity Demand in France Stéphane Auray, Vincenzo Caponi and Benoît Ravel Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty? Luc Arrondel* and Richard Duhautois** Abstract – The idea that competitive balance increases the utility of fans, and therefore their spending and the revenue of professional clubs, lies at the heart of sports economics in general and the economics of football in particular. This notion of competitive balance is often invoked to explain the decisions of professional leagues to change the rules of competitions or the dis‑ tribution of TV rights. However, the empirical literature shows that the relationship between competitive balance and fan demand is far from obvious. In this paper, we examine the idea of competitive balance as perceived by football fans. In the case of Ligue 1, it is mainly explained by medium‑ and long‑term uncertainty, while in the case of the Champions League it is more a matter of long‑term suspense. But uncertainty over the outcome is far from being the only factor explaining the demand for football since around 30% of fans report that they would always be willing to attend or watch games even in the hypothetical case that there is no suspense left. JEL Classification: D12, L83 Keywords: competitive balance, uncertainty of outcome hypothesis, demand for football * CNRS, PSE ([email protected]) ; ** CNAM ([email protected]) The authors are particularly grateful to Jean Le Bail of the sports newspaper L’Équipe, without whom the survey used in this paper would not have been possible. The comments of two anonymous reviewers were particularly helpful. The opinions and analyses in this article are those of the author(s) do not Received on 22 July 2018, accepted after revisions on 12 July 2019. Translated from: “Les supporters français de football sont‑ils sensibles à l’incertitude du résultat ?” Reminder: views. or Insee’s necessarily reflect their institution’s Citation: Arrondel, L. & Duhautois, R. (2019). Are French Football Fans Sensitive to Outcome Uncertainty? Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, 513, 5–26. https://doi.org/10.24187/ecostat.2019.513.2001 ECONOMIE ET STATISTIQUE / ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS N° 513, 2019 5 he uncertainty of outcome hypothesis outcome uncertainty and fan demand (see in T (UOH) has been a central hypothesis in Appendix 1 an annotated list of relevant studies). sport economics since the 1950s (Rottenberg, Thus, for example, research shows that stadium 1956) in attempts to explain sport spectator attendance is high in England and Germany but “consumption” behaviour. The idea is that relatively low in France and Italy, without there championships with unbalanced competitions being any evidence of a relationship with the – for example, where one team is superior to all competitive balance of the championships since the other teams – have a negative effect on fan the French league was associated with the highest “demand”, leading to a drop in stadium atten­­ level of uncertainty until the takeover of Paris dance and television ratings and, consequently, to Saint‑Germain Football Club (PSG) by Qatar a drop in club revenue. The notion of balance in (Andreff, 2014, 2018).1 competitions is termed “competitive balance”. Neale (1964) distinguished between the uncer‑ The first reason is that the attractiveness of tainty of the outcome at the match level (the competitions depends on how they are run (see Louis‑Schmeling paradox1) and the uncertainty Box 1). An important distinction is between of the outcome of a competition (e.g. the French open leagues based on a promotion and relega‑ Ligue 1 football championship), which he terms tion system (such as European football leagues) the “League Standing effect”: if teams in a and closed leagues with no such system (such as league are of equal strength, there will be regu‑ North American leagues). In closed leagues, the lar changes in the standings, thereby increasing spectator interest and, therefore, revenues. 1. The idea behind the paradox is based on the following events: when, after a series of crushing victories, boxer Joe Louis suffered the first defeat However, most empirical studies of professional of his professional career against Max Schmeling in 1936 (after 23 conse‑ cutive victories), interest in the American boxer paradoxically increased football have found no relationship between rapidly, as did his earnings. Box 1 – The Organisation of Football in France and Europe France’s national football leagues – in common with all Next come the amateur football divisions, with clubs European leagues – are based on a pyramidal struc‑ operating as associations with non‑professional players. ture. One of their key characteristics is the system of Since the 2017‑2018 season, France’s national ama‑ promotions (with teams moving up to the league above) teur divisions have been called the “National 1” league, and relegations (teams moving down to the league the “National 2” league (formerly the French Amateur below). Competitions based on this model are known Championship, or CFA) and the “National 3” league as “open leagues”, in contrast to the North American (formerly CFA 2). Most of the teams that play in these “closed league” model, where the promotion and relega‑ leagues are amateur clubs. Clubs that move down from tion system does not apply.