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Oct. 2021 University of London Remote Sensing of Environmental Change in the Niger Delta, Nigeria By Ayansina Ayanlade This thesis is submitted to King’s College London, University of London, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2014 Department of Geography, School of Social Sciences and Public Policy, King’s College London University of London. 1 King’s College London PhD Thesis by Ayansina Ayanlade 2014 University of London ABSTRACT This study examines landuse change (LUC) in the Niger Delta of Nigeria, focusing on the drivers of change and the societal implications on the people in the Delta. This study applies both remote sensing and social research methods to evaluate the spatial and temporal change in landuse, population change, deforestation, and degradation within forest reserves; and the impacts of oil production and the effects of the changes on the Delta. A time series of Landsat TM images was used over the period from 1984 to 2011. The study evaluates a number of classification and post- classification change detection methods to examine LUC, while NDVI is used to monitor the degradation of forests. Accuracy assessment shows that Maximum Likelihood (ML) is the most accurate method, but results were still error prone. To improve classification accuracy, a Decision Tree Reclassification (DTR) method was developed that uses prior classifications and simple rules of those LUCs, which occur over time and those that do not. DTR improves the overall accuracy of the classification from 62% to 89%. The social methods used a mixed-method approach (questionnaires, interviews and focus group discussions). The methods were carefully selected and used to help explain the results of findings from remote sensing. The results are presented in two phases: (1) results of remote sensing showing the overall changes in the entire Niger Delta and specific case studies (2) results of social science survey showing the drivers of changes and their environmental and societal implications on the people in the Delta. The results show that nearly 9000 km2 forest has been lost in the Niger Delta region between 1984 and 2011, but the extent of deforestation varies from one forest type to another. Lowland rainforest is more exploited than freshwater swamp forest and mangrove forests, with approximately 40% of lowland rainforest areas lost. The urban areas expand by about 50% in lowland rainforest, but less urban expansion is noted in freshwater swamp forest (16%) and mangrove forest (38%). The study finds that assessing oil spill impacts using Landsat TM was not possible, but that oil production infrastructures (e.g. construction of canals) can be an important cause of deforestation in the Delta in exceptional cases. This is evident in the mangroves around Tsekelewu that are reduced from 200km2 in 1984 to 114km2 in 1987, because of the construction of artificial canals that have promoted regular inflow of seawater and the consequent destruction of freshwater mangroves. The results from social survey show also the drivers of LUC and deforestation in the Delta are probably multiphase including unenforced forest protection laws; corruption at all levels; pressure of immigration and increasing population; and indifference of local people to the state of the forest around them. 2 King’s College London PhD Thesis by Ayansina Ayanlade 2014 University of London ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I want to first of all thank the Almighty God for His grace, faithfulness and mercy over my life during the period of this PhD research, for it is not of him that runs, but of God that shows mercy. THANK YOU MY SHIELD AND MY SUSTAINER. I will forver serve YOU. This thesis represents the work and support of many people than I could possibly hope to thank, but I cannot forgo mentioning the following: Nigerian government through PTDF (Petroleum Technology Development Fund) for funding and supporting this PhD research, and to my employer, Obafemi Awolowo University for granting me study leave with pay. Prof. Nicholas Drake and Dr Michael Howard for their resourceful supervision, commitments and brilliant contributions that greatly aided me throughout this study. In fact, you have been good mentors and I will forever be grateful. Department of Geography, King’s college, University of London for funding part of the field work, and all staff of Geography Department, King’s College London for providing enabling environment for this PhD study. Adedayo Awole, Ayodeji Ogunlolu and Wola Ayanlade for their assistance during the field work. Likewise, Dr Renee Miller, Roger Blench, Michael W. Prime, Nathaniel Matthews and Prof. Bruce Malamud for their assistance during literature search and writing-up of the thesis, which I will never forget. The family of Pastor and Mrs Andrew Smith, Sandra and Colin Guest and all families in King’s Cross Baptist Church, London for their prayers, inspiration and financial support during the course of this research. Moreover, my appreciation goes to my sweet mother, Mama Taiwo Ayanlade, my siblings: Wola and Ronke AYANLADE and all my inlaws: the AKINBAMIs; the ADEBOWALEs and the OLADIMEJIs. YOU ARE ALL GREAT. My special thanks go to my beautiful, lovely and understanding wife- Oluwatoyin AYANLADE (TEMINIKAN SOSO), and my wonderful boys and girl- Jesuferanmi, AyanfeOluwa and AyoOluwa AYANLADE, for their full patience with a Dad who stays up long into night, researching and reading. I am happy to have you as a family. Likewise, to my adopted children: Innocent Joseph and Opeyemi Odedokun, Indeed, you are all great. THANK YOU AND I LOVE YOU ALL. 3 King’s College London PhD Thesis by Ayansina Ayanlade 2014 University of London TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................................... 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .............................................................................................................................. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................ 4 LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................ 9 LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................................ 14 LIST OF EQUATIONS ................................................................................................................................ 17 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 18 1.1. General Background of the Study .................................................................................................... 18 1.2. The Research Problem...................................................................................................................... 20 1.3. Research Questions .......................................................................................................................... 22 1.4. Aim of the Research ......................................................................................................................... 23 1.5. Objectives of the Research ............................................................................................................... 23 1.6. Justification of the Study .................................................................................................................. 24 1.7. Thesis Overview ............................................................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER TWO: THE NIGER DELTA: ENVIRONMENT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS ... 27 2.1. Location and Size ............................................................................................................................. 27 2.2. Geomorphology of the Niger Delta ......................................................................................................