Space and combination heaters Ecodesign and Energy Labelling Review Study Task 2 Market Analysis FINAL REPORT Review study of Commission Regulation (EU) No. 813/2013 [Ecodesign] and Commission Delegated Regulation No. (EU) No. 811/2013 (Energy Label) Prepared by VHK, Delft (NL), in collaboration with BRG Building Solutions, London (UK) for the European Commission, Brussels (BE) July 2019 The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission. Prepared by Study team: Van Holsteijn en Kemna B.V. (VHK), The Netherlands, in collaboration with BRG Building Solutions, London (UK) Authors: René Kemna, Martijn van Elburg (both VHK), Andrea Corso (BRG subcontract) Study team contact: René Kemna ([email protected]) Contract manager: Jan Viegand, Viegand Maagøe Project website: www.ecoboiler-review.eu Specific contract: no. ENER/C3/SER/FV 2016-537/08/FWC 2015-619 LOT2/02/SI2.753930 Title: Review Study existing ecodesign & energy labelling SPACE HEATERS & COMBINATION HEATERS Contract date: 9.6.2017 Consortium: Viegand Maagøe, VHK, Wuppertal Institute, Armines, Oakdene Hollins Cover: Gas-fired central heating boiler [picture VHK 2016-2017] This study was ordered and paid for by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Energy. The information and views set out in this study are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission’s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. This report has been prepared by the authors to the best of their ability and knowledge. The authors do not assume liability for any damage, material or immaterial, that may arise from the use of the report or the information contained therein. © European Union, July 2019. Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. More information on the European Union is available on the internet (https://europa.eu). II EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This is the Task 2 report of the preparatory review study on the Ecodesign Commission Regulation (EU) No. 813/2013 and Energy Label Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) No. 811/2013 for central heating boilers. Task 2 not only serves as an update of market figures for the subsequent Tasks, following the MEErP methodology, but also reviews specific aspects mentioned in Article 7 of the regulations and evaluates the effectiveness of the current regulations in as much as can be derived from market data. Most raw stock and sales data were produced by subcontractor BRG Building Solution. VHK was responsible for analysis/presentation of data from BRG and other sources such as Eurostat and industry associations. Generic economic data In 2016 and according to Eurostat, the EU production of central heating boilers in the scope of the boiler regulations, plus solid fuel boilers, amounted to 6.9 million units at a value of €6.9 bn in manufacturer selling prices (msp). This included over 6.44 million gas/oil boilers at €5.1 bn and 0.44 million hydronic heat pumps at €1.6 bn. Approximately 93% of EU-production takes place in only 7 countries (IT, UK, DE, NL, FR, PL, SK). In 2016 and according to BRG data, the sales of products in the scope of the boiler regulations amounted to 5.9 million units at €4.9bn. This included over 5.4 million gas/oil boilers at €3.6bn and 0.37 million hydronic heat pumps at €1.3 bn. In 2004 and according to BRG data, the reference year for the 2006-2007 preparatory Ecodesign study, production of boilers in scope was approximately 7 million gas/oil boilers plus 0.12 million hydronic heat pumps, at a total nominal value of approximately €5 bn (in euros 2004). Corrected for inflation over the period, this comes down to €6.2 bn (in euros 2016). Historically, unit production grew to a peak in 2006 and then declined to the current level over the 2007-2009 period. Average nominal manufacturer selling price for fossil fuel fired boilers increased 13% from €643 in 2004 to €724 in 2016. Corrected for inflation the price decreased by 9% over that period. The average msp for heat pomp boilers in 2016 was €3600/unit; in 2004 it was nominally twice as high, also due to a relatively higher share of ground- source versus air-source heat pump boilers. Fossil fuel fired boiler exports amounted to €0.74 billion in 2016, decreasing 9% annually since 2013 mainly due to a decrease in exports to Russia. China has now become the largest export-destination. Imports were €0.36 bn, increasing 9% year-on-year mainly due to an increase in boilers from Turkey. The overall EU trade balance, €0.38 bn in 2016, is positive. The accuracy of Eurostat figures above should not be overestimated. III Stock The EU has 245 million residential dwellings EU (2014, incl. BU, CR, RO), of which 215 million primary dwellings (households) and almost 30 million secondary dwellings (weekend- and vacant houses). Of this, 120 million residential individual central heating boiler systems are installed (2014), of which 113 million in the scope of the boiler regulations (i.e. excluding solid fuel boilers) and 30 million dwellings with collective heating, i.e. heated by approx. 5 million boiler installations (single boilers with or without back-up or cascades). Furthermore, 14 million boiler-installations are installed in the tertiary sector, including at least 1.7 million gas/oil boilers <400 kW in ‘dry’ air conditioning systems to supply the heating, while dedicated chillers supply the cooling side. Compared to the residential market 10 years before (2004), the stock of gas-fired individual central heating systems in 2014 increased from 70% to 77.25%, the oil-fired equivalent decreased from 22 to 15%, heat pump boilers increased from 0.4 to 1.2%. The number of dwellings with collective heating decreased from 14 to 12% and those with individual ‘dry’ systems increased from 6 to 7%. Dwellings with no or only local heaters decreased from 22 to 21%. Sales In 2016 and according to BRG data, almost 6 million gas/oil/heat-pump boilers were sold in the EU (2016), of which 5.2 million were gas-fired, 0.37 million heat pump, 0.3 million oil-fired and <0.1 million electric boilers. Of this 6 million, − 4.9 million are condensing gas/oil (gas 4.75 & oil 0.15) with average declared seasonal space heating efficiency ηs 91-93%, − 0.6 million non-condensing gas/oil with ηs 75%, − 0.26 million are air-to-water heat pumps with ηs 145%, − 0.06 million are ground-source heat pumps with ηs 158% and − 0.07 million electric boilers with ηs 35%. The average seasonal space heating efficiency ηs in 2016, one year after implementation of the Ecodesign and Energy Label boiler regulations, was 91-93%. In 2014, one year before implementation ηs was 90%. In 2004, when boilers were first mentioned in plans for the new Ecodesign Directive, ηs was 80.5%. Industry association EHI supplied more detailed sales data for 2016, in particular for the top-7 EU markets (UK, IT, DE, FR, NL, ES, BE), as well as 2015 stock data at EU level. They confirm that, although the transition to condensing boilers is successful, in 2016 still 10% of the market consists of non-condensing boilers. These are either boilers from wholesale/industry stock or exemptions for B1-types. In EHI-data the share of non- condensing versus condensing oil boilers is very high, at 40%. This could be due to old stock, but if it persists it might point at an unintended use of the B1-exemption or –as EHI believes—that oil-fired non-condensing floor standing boilers can actually reach the minimum seasonal energy efficiency of 86%. In addition, these low temperature oil boilers have been recertified with Low NOx burners to meet the 2018 Ecodesign requirements. IV In 2014, 78% of boiler sales went to boiler replacement (in 2004 it was 60%), where the absolute sales number even increased from 4.35 million in 2004 to 4.9 million in 2014. The sales to new houses, 0.85 million or 14% (2014), were almost half of those in 2004 (1.6 million). Most dramatic was the reduction in sales to people that did not have central heating before, the so-called 1st time users, that bought over 1 million boilers in 2004 and in 2014 only 0.28 million. Technically, the room-sealed, gas-fired condensing combi boiler with a fan-assisted premix burner type, electronic ignition (no pilot flame) and steel or aluminium heat exchanger became the dominant type, representing 60-70% of all sales. Especially the switch from conventional (59% in 2004) to fan-assisted premix and low NOx burners (78% of total in 2014) means that emission control will have improved. Around 93% of all oil/gas boilers now have hot water functionality, either as combi or with an external cylinder. The average power of oil/gas boilers has not changed over the last 10 years and has stayed at 27 kW. For heat pump boilers the average output is in the range of 10-11 kW. As regards innovative boiler types, the sales of microCHP (<50 kW electric output) have stayed at a modest level of just over 3000 units in 2014. For integrated ‘hybrids’, an innovative integration of e.g. condensing gas-boiler and electric heat pump in one compact device, sales are still low (6600 units in 2014).