medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.14.21253340; this version posted May 11, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 1 The potential for bike riding across entire cities: quantifying spatial variation in interest in bike riding 2 Lauren K Pearsona, Joanna Dipnalla,b, Belinda Gabbea,c, Sandy Braafa, Shelley Whitec, Melissa Backhousec, Ben Becka 3 Keywords: Cycling, active transport, bike riding, health promotion 4 a) School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria, Australia 5 b) School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Victoria, Australia 6 c) Health Data Research UK, Swansea University, Swansea, United Kingdom 7 d) VicHealth, Victoria, Australia 8 9 ABSTRACT 10 Background: Riding a bike is beneficial for health, the environment and for reducing traffic congestion. Despite this, bike 11 riding participation in the state of Victoria, Australia, is low. To inform planning and practice, there is a need to understand 12 the proportion of the population (the ‘near-market’) that are interested in riding a bike, and how this varies across regions. 13 The Geller typology classifies individuals into one of four groups, based on their confidence to ride a bike in various 14 infrastructure types, and frequency of bike riding. The typology has been used at a city, state and country-wide scale, 15 however not at a smaller spatial scale. We aimed to characterise and quantify the distribution of the Geller typology within 16 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in the state of Victoria, Australia. 17 Methods: An online survey was conducted in 37 LGAs in Victoria, including all LGAs in Greater Melbourne, and a selection of 18 six key regional centres. Participants were recruited from an opt-in online research company panel with the objective of 19 recruiting a representative sample of adults across each LGA. The Geller typology classified individuals as either: ‘Strong and 20 Fearless, ‘Enthused and Confident’, ‘Interested but Concerned’, or ‘No Way No How’. ‘Interested but Concerned’ 21 participants are those that would ride a bike if protected infrastructure were provided. 22 Results: The survey was completed by 3999 individuals. Most participants owned a bike (58%), however only 20% rode at 23 least once per week. The distribution of the Geller groups was: ‘Strong and Fearless’ (3%), ‘Enthused and Confident’ (3%), 24 ‘Interested but Concerned’ (78%), and ‘No Way No How’ (16%). While variation in the distributions of the Geller groups was 25 observed between LGAs within Greater Melbourne., the ‘Interested but Concerned’ group, reflecting people who are 26 comfortable riding only in protected lanes or off-road paths, was high across all LGAs and all demographic sub-groups. Even 27 though the frequency of riding a bike was lower in women, interest in riding a bike was high and comparable to men. 28 Participants who resided in the outer urban fringe regions of Greater Melbourne had high interest, but low participation in 29 bike riding. 30 Conclusions: While there was variation in interest in bike riding across an entire metropolitan region and across population 31 groups, interest was high across all areas and demographics. Our results show the potential for substantial increases in 32 cycling participation, but only when high-quality cycling infrastructure is provided. Further research is required to 33 understand the policy and practice barriers to equitable provision of protected infrastructure. 34 NOTE: This preprint reports new research that has not been certified by peer review and should not be used to guide clinical practice. 1 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.14.21253340; this version posted May 11, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 35 INTRODUCTION 36 Increasing participation in bike riding is well established as being beneficial for public health, the 37 environment and traffic congestion (1-5). The majority of populated areas of Australia exhibit ideal 38 conditions for riding a bicycle, including relatively flat topography and in most areas, a mild climate. Despite 39 this, participation in bike riding remains low in Australia compared to other international settings (6). To 40 increase bike riding participation and to ensure that planning and practice efforts are targeted to the whole 41 community, there is a need to identify specific sub-groups of the population that can be classified as the 42 bike riding ‘near-market’; individuals who would like to start riding a bike. Bike rider typologies are 43 commonly used to achieve this, by segmenting populations into distinct groups with shared characteristics. 44 The most commonly used bicyclist typology is the ‘Four Types of Cyclist’ typology, first introduced in 2006 45 by Roger Geller (7) and later refined by Dill & McNeil (8). This classifies people into one of four groups 46 based on their confidence to ride a bike in various infrastructure types, their interest in riding a bike and if 47 they had ridden a bike in the past month. One of the four categories are people who are ‘Interested but 48 Concerned’. Interested but Concerned participants are those that would ride a bike if protected 49 infrastructure were provided. The typology has been used to quantify potentially latent groups of bicyclists 50 in cities, states, and countries. While the use of typologies to quantify the near-market of bicyclists across 51 large cities and regions has been helpful in informing bike riding strategies, prior studies have not explored 52 whether interest in bike riding varies within these geographies, such as across smaller spatial areas of cities 53 and states (8-11). The availability and quality of transport infrastructure often varies within cities 54 depending on zoning, distance from the city, topography, socioeconomic status and community 55 demographics (12-14). Identifying interest in bike riding at this small spatial scale is useful in understanding 56 geographical variation in bike riding potential and how protected infrastructure can be implemented to 57 maximise bike riding participation and address inequities in participation and infrastructure. To our 58 knowledge, previous literature has not quantified the Geller typology groups at a spatial scale smaller than 59 cities, and has not been applied in Australia. 2 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.14.21253340; this version posted May 11, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 60 In this study, we aimed to quantify and identify the characteristics of the ‘Four Types of Cyclist’ in all Local 61 Government Areas (LGAs) within Greater Melbourne, and a selection of regional centres in the state of 62 Victoria, Australia. 63 METHODS 64 Study design 65 We conducted a cross-sectional online survey in the state of Victoria, Australia. The objective was to recruit 66 a representative sample of adults (aged 18 years and older) across each local government area. Data 67 collection occurred over the period of August 12th to September 10th, 2020. Data collection occurred during 68 a period of restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many Victorian workplaces were closed and 69 physical distancing was enforced (15), but there were no restrictions placed on leaving the home during 70 this period. 71 In line with values-based messaging for health promotion (16), we adopted the term “bike riding” rather 72 than “cycling”, and their equivalents, in this study to ensure inclusivity and avoid association with 73 competitive cycling (17). 74 Setting 75 Victoria has a population of 6.7 million (18) of which 67% reside in the Greater Melbourne area (19). As of 76 2018, bike riding comprised 3% of all weekday trips in metropolitan Melbourne (20). LGAs were chosen as 77 the geographical area for analysis. LGAs in Australia are defined subdivisions of states that are under the 78 jurisdiction of a particular Local Government (21). In Victoria, 85% of the road network is made up of local 79 roads, which are maintained by Local Governments (22). For this reason, Local Governments play an 80 essential role in the planning and maintenance of bicycling infrastructure. Data were collected in each LGA 81 within Greater Melbourne (n=31) and select regional LGAs (n=6) (Error! Reference source not found.). 3 medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.14.21253340; this version posted May 11, 2021. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license . 82 83 Figure 1. Map of included LGAs and population density within the state of Victoria (Regional LGAs = dotted border, Greater 84 Melbourne LGAs = solid border) 85 Greater Melbourne LGAs were chosen specifically due to the high density of population (see Figure 1, 86 Figure 2), and potential to improve bike riding participation rates and infrastructure. Similarly, data were 87 collected in six regional centres with higher populations, higher population density and relatively flat 88 topography. These areas also had the potential for increased participation in bike riding. Achieving a 89 representative sample in rural/regional LGAs other than those selected was not feasible due to small survey 90 panel sizes in these regions.