Final Report Downtown Austin Retail Market Strategy For The Downtown Austin Alliance and the City of Austin Submitted by Economics Research Associates April 2005 ERA Project No. 15373 1101 Connecticut Avenue, NW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20036 202.496.9870 FAX 202.496.9877 www.econres.com Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London New York Executive Summary Introduction Methodology Economic Overview Task 1: Infrastructure Inventory Task 2: Retail Inventory Summary of Retail Supply Competitive Context Shoppers Behaviors Survey Customer Base Survey Task 3: Retail Demand Analysis Task 4: Market Strategy Summary of Best Practices Case Studies Downtown Austin Retail Panel Downtown Austin Retail Strategy Task 5 – Barriers to Entry and Recommended Implementation Strategy Implementation Recommendations APPENDICES: Infrastructure Inventory - Black & Vernooy Downtown Retail Demand Survey – Selected Findings, M. Crane & Associates, June 2004 International Downtown Association Broker/Developer Panel Report Case Studies – Downtown Retail Incentives Best Practices IDA Survey of Retail Incentives 1101 Connecticut Avenue, NW Suite 750 Washington, DC 20036 202.496.9870 FAX 202.496.9877 www.econres.com Los Angeles San Francisco San Diego Chicago Washington DC London New York General & Limiting Conditions Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data utilized in this study reflect the most accurate and timely information possible. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by ERA from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the market and the industry, and consultations with the Downtown Austin Alliance and its representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the DAA, its agent and representatives or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. No warranty or representation is made by Economics Research Associates that any of the projected demand estimates or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. This report is intended to provide the client and the City of Austin with guidance for preparing an informed retail marketing strategy for Downtown Austin. It should not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared or for which prior written consent has first been obtained from ERA. This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and considerations. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Downtown Austin Retail Market Strategy Downtown Austin is known throughout Texas and across the United States as a thriving destination for live music, dining and entertainment; many other cities envy the active streets and sidewalks, the positive reputation that the city enjoys as a visitor destination and the quality of life that sets Austin apart from less exciting downtown areas. In addition to its reputation for dining and entertainment, Austin has thousands of new downtown residents who have chosen to live in the heart of the city in mid-rise condominiums, urban apartments and lofts. Almost 67,000 downtown office workers sustain the weekday market (and up to 90,000 in the larger trade area), and the expanded convention center, downtown hotels and museums draw visitors from the region and across the country. With a growing regional population and an extraordinary range of activities, downtown Austin remains at the heart of the region and frames Congress Avenue, one of America’s greatest streets and the “Main Street of Texas.” The City has demonstrated its commitment to downtown through the Second Street Project, the expanded convention center, the new City Hall and future development plans for the Seaholm Power Plant and Tom Green Water Treatment Plant, among other sites. Whole Foods has opened its national flagship store in downtown Austin, simultaneously providing for a critical resident market need and a state of the art retail store that will be a model for other cities. All of these elements have combined to create Austin’s success to date, but the opportunity is there to add the final piece of the puzzle—downtown as a retail destination for the region. Perhaps the greatest opportunity is represented by close-in residents on all sides of the central business district who want to shop downtown but cannot find the products and services they want today. Almost all of the other pieces are already in place to provide locations for new retail businesses – the market is present, shoppers are motivated, and retail space is increasingly available. What is missing is a distribution of the right mix of stores and the process to attract them downtown. In ERA’s experience, this is an opportunity that most cities want, but few can realistically achieve. Downtown Austin is the rare example that can actually achieve it. In order to capitalize on this opportunity, the Downtown Austin Alliance (DAA) and the City of Austin retained Economics Research Associates (ERA) to conduct a Retail Development Strategy Study for downtown Austin. ERA was charged with creating a demand model based on demographics and spending patterns of three primary markets— downtown and nearby residents, downtown employees, and visitors (including convention center visitors, business visitors and tourists) —to determine how much retail downtown Austin can support. ERA also analyzed existing retail patterns and current development trends in the 587-acre study area, which was divided into nine subdistricts (the map and subdistricts are shown on page 3 of this Executive Summary), to determine the primary corridors and districts in which the DAA and City should focus their initial recruiting efforts. The study was comprised of five tasks: • Infrastructure Inventory • Retail Inventory • Retail Demand Analysis • Market Strategy • Barriers to Entry and Recommended Implementation Strategy The findings and recommendations of each of these tasks are summarized in the following report. The Downtown Austin Retail Market Strategy was completed over a sixteen month period beginning in December 2003 and also included a number of public meetings, presentations, and coordination meetings with special committees of the DAA and the City at benchmark points in the study. The findings of the analysis are summarized in this document with a focus on implementation and sustainability and are intended to provide a framework for development of a strong retail component in downtown Austin, strengthening the existing retail base and adding complementary new development. Project Area Boundaries The project study area included nine distinct shown on the map (please see following page); study area subdistricts include: • Lamar Boulevard/Baylor Street area • West Sixth Street • The Warehouse District • Second Street • Congress Avenue • The Arts District • Red River/East Downtown • East Sixth Street • Convention Center The study also incorporated the market influence of other consumer markets and retail areas in central Austin including the State Capitol complex, the University of Texas campus, the West End, Barton Springs Road, and the South Congress Avenue area known as SoCo. Resident areas included neighborhoods east, south, west and north of the downtown area as well. Task 1—Infrastructure Inventory As demonstrated by the City staff’s cooperation with Black + Vernooy on the Infrastructure Analysis developed under Task 1 of this Scope of Work, there are many positive aspects to the City’s role in encouraging downtown development. In our experience, the infrastructure analysis mapping (produced by City staff in several departments and Black + Vernooy) is a powerful planning tool that will enable the City to make informed decisions on public infrastructure and capital investment for many years to come. The Austin model is the best we have seen in our national work, and we wish to credit the City on its role in assembling data and assisting in production of the layered database. To analyze and document these conditions, Black + Vernooy, Architecture + Urban led the first task under the retail market strategy, which included a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based inventory of downtown Austin’s infrastructure. The resulting analysis and mapping provides a ‘geography of capacity’ for downtown Austin’s infrastructure. Several departments of the City of Austin provided critical assistance to Black + Vernooy in compiling and assessing infrastructure systems, including a needs assessment of storm water drainage, water supply, wastewater, electrical supply, parking, public transportation, streets and sidewalks and telecommunications. With the cooperation of the City, a GIS inventory of selected utilities was combined into one database and made accessible at the City’s website; the link to the infrastructure inventory can be found at the following web address: http://coagis1.ci.austin.tx.us/website/COAViewer_downtown/viewer.htm. Key findings from each section of the infrastructure inventory and analysis are described below: Storm Drainage • Because of seasonal weather patterns and the physical geography of the area, Central Texas and downtown Austin are susceptible to flash flooding. Downtown Austin is surrounded by Shoal Creek to the west, Waller Creek to the east, and Town Lake to the south. In addition to the natural creek and river drainage system, a secondary man- made system conveys storm water to the creeks and lakes. Development is constrained by the 25- and 100-year floodplains, as well as by localized drainage