SURVEYING PUBLIC OPINION IN TRANSITIONAL CHINA: AN EXAMINATION OF SURVEY RESPONSE by Liying Ren BA, Peking University, China, 1996 MA, Peking University, 2000 MA, University of Pittsburgh, 2007 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 2009 UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH FACULTY OF ARTS AND SCIENCES This dissertation was presented by Liying Ren It was defended on April 16, 2009 and approved by David C. Barker, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science Jonathan Harris, Professor, Department of Political Science Thomas Rawski, Professor, Department of Economics Dissertation Advisor: Wenfang Tang, Professor, Department of Political Science ii Copyright © by Liying Ren 2009 iii SURVEYING PUBLIC OPINION IN TRANSITIONAL CHINA: AN EXMAINATION OF SURVEY RESPONSE Liying Ren, PhD University of Pittsburgh, 2009 This study investigates the usefulness of public opinion survey in China for political research. Using data from the World Values Survey and from several Chinese public opinion surveys, my central inquiry consists of three separate but interrelated issues: are public opinion survey data from China truthful, meaningful, and comparable? I frame these questions in a comparative perspective and in the transitional contexts of China. By examining the issues of item- nonresponse, norm-seeking response, and cross-national comparability, I show that the validity of survey responses in Chinese opinion surveys is mainly influenced by the respondents’ cognitive ability, political interest, media exposure, and cultural difference. Political control is present in the form of response effect and information control, but it should not be a serious concern about the use of Chinese survey data. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE .................................................................................................................................... XI 1. INTRODUCTION: CHARTING THE VOYAGE OF INQUIRY .................................. 1 1.1 PUBLIC OPINION AND SURVEY RESEARCH ........................................... 5 1.2 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY IN CHINA ........................................................ 9 1.3 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS AND CHINESE POLITICAL STUDIES .. 13 1.4 RESEARCH QUESTION: THE VALIDITY OF SURVEY RESPONSES . 16 1.5 DATA .................................................................................................................. 22 1.6 OUTLINE OF CHAPTERS .............................................................................. 24 2. SURVEYING PUBLIC OPINION IN TRANSITIONAL CHINA ............................... 28 2.1 CHINA UNDER TRANSITION ...................................................................... 29 2.2 CONTEXTS FOR PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY RESEARCH................... 34 2.2.1 Historical context ........................................................................................ 35 2.2.2 Political context ........................................................................................... 39 2.2.3 Social context ............................................................................................... 44 2.2.4 Research context ......................................................................................... 45 2.3 THE ORGANIZATIONAL GROWTH OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY RESEARCH ........................................................................................................................ 47 2.3.1 Government opinion research apparatus ................................................. 47 v 2.3.2 Academic survey research institutes ......................................................... 54 2.3.3 Commercial opinion research firms .......................................................... 57 2.4 PROBLEMS OF PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY IN CHINA ........................ 59 2.5 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 62 3. DECIPHERING THE SILENCE: DON’T KNOW, DON’T CARE, OR DON’T WANT TO TELL ........................................................................................................................ 65 3.1 THE ISSUE: ITEM NONRESPONSE ............................................................ 65 3.2 ITEM NONRESPONSE IN PUBLIC OPINION SURVEYS ........................ 68 3.3 DATA, CASE SELECTION, AND MEASURES ........................................... 73 3.4 EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES ........................................................ 76 3.5 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION .............................................. 81 3.5.1 The ZINB regression results of “don’t know” responses ........................ 84 3.5.2 A comparison of “don’t know” responses to politics-related questions. 88 3.6 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................. 94 4． EXAMINING THE VOICED OPINIONS: THE MEANINGFULNESS OF POLITICAL SUPPORT ............................................................................................................ 96 4.1 THE ISSUE: POLITICAL SUPPORT ............................................................ 96 4.2 THE MEANING OF POLITICAL SUPPORT ............................................ 100 4.3 THE DIMENSIONALITY OF THE VOICED POLITICAL SUPPORT .. 103 4.4 EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES ...................................................... 107 4.4.1 Regime arguments .................................................................................... 107 4.4.2 Cultural arguments ................................................................................... 111 4.4.3 Rationality arguments .............................................................................. 112 vi 4.5 EMPIRICAL FINDINGS AT THE MACRO LEVEL ................................ 113 4.5.1 Measurement ............................................................................................. 114 4.5.2 Findings ...................................................................................................... 115 4.5.3 Summary of macro analysis ..................................................................... 120 4.6 EMPIRICAL FINDINGS AT THE MICRO LEVEL .................................. 121 4.6.1 Measurement ............................................................................................. 121 4.6.2 Findings ...................................................................................................... 125 4.6.3 Summary of micro analysis ...................................................................... 128 4.7 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 129 5． ENHANCING THE COMPARABILITY: INTERPERSONAL TRUST AND DEMOCRACY .......................................................................................................................... 131 5.1 THE ISSUE: INTERPERSONAL TRUST AND DEMOCRACY .............. 132 5.2 STUDIES ON INTERPERSONAL TRUST AND DEMOCRACY ............ 135 5.3 UNPACKING INTERPERSONAL TRUST IN CHINA ............................. 140 5.4 MEASURING DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT: A NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH ..................................................................................................................... 146 5.5 INTERPERSONAL TRUST AND DEMOCRACY: A MULTILEVEL ANALYSIS ........................................................................................................................ 151 5.6 CONCLUSION ................................................................................................ 159 6． CONCLUSION: FINDINGS, IMPLICATIONS, AND FUTURE RESEARCH ....... 162 6.1 CONTEXT MATTERS ................................................................................... 163 6.2 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY AND CHINESE POLITICAL RESEARCH 166 vii 6.3 PUBLIC OPINION SURVEY AND POLICY MAKING ............................ 169 APPENDIX A . QUESTIONS FOR THE ANALYSIS OF “DON’T KNOW” ANSWERS 177 APPENDIX B . A ZINB MODEL OF DK ANSWERS TO POLITICS-RELATED QUESTIONS ............................................................................................................................. 181 APPENDIX C . DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES IN TABLE 4 ....................................... 182 APPENDIX D . DESCRIPTION OF VARIABLES IN TABLE 7 ....................................... 183 APPENDIX E . FREEDOM BY INTERPERSONAL TRUST ............................................ 184 APPENDIX F . DIMENSIONS OF INTERPERSONAL TRUST ....................................... 185 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................................................................................... 186 viii LIST OF TABLES Table 1 An examination of item nonresponse in public opinion surveys ..................................... 72 Table 2 Distribution of total DKs by countries ............................................................................. 75 Table 3 ZINB results for “don’t know” responses in China, WVS 2000 .................................... 85 Table 4 A comparison of “don’t know” responses to politics-related questions .......................... 89 Table 5 Dimensions of political support ..................................................................................... 104 Table 6 Regression analyses of political support ........................................................................ 119 Table 7 Multivariate multiple OLS regression analysis of political support in China ............... 126 Table 8 Logistic