White Rock Business Needs Assessment Draft Report for Discussion Purposes August 2011 Prepared for: The City of White Rock and the White Rock Business Improvement Association By: Coriolis Consulting Corp. WHITE ROCK BUSINESS NEEDS ASSESSMENT Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background, Objectives, and Scope .................................................................................. 1 1.2 Approach ............................................................................................................................... 2 2.0 TRADE AREA DESCRIPTION ................................................................................ 3 2.1 Location in a Regional Context ........................................................................................... 3 2.2 Existing Pattern of Commercial Development in the Trade Area .................................... 4 3.0 COMMERCIAL SUB-AREAS IN WHITE ROCK ..................................................... 6 3.1 Location of Commercial Sub-Areas in White Rock .......................................................... 6 3.2 Profile of the Upper Town Centre and Lower Town Centre ............................................. 7 3.2.1 Retail Form and Character .................................................................................... 7 3.2.2 Zoning and OCP Designations .............................................................................. 7 3.2.3 Lease Rates and Vacancy ..................................................................................... 9 3.2.4 Vacant Land ......................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Profile of the West Beach and East Beach Areas ........................................................... 11 3.3.1 Retail Form and Character .................................................................................. 11 3.3.2 Zoning and OCP Designations ............................................................................ 11 3.3.3 Lease Rates and Vacancy ................................................................................... 11 3.3.4 Vacant Land ......................................................................................................... 12 4.0 POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND FORECASTS ................... 13 4.1 Existing Population and Historic Trends ......................................................................... 13 4.2 Historic Trends in Population Growth by Age Group ..................................................... 14 4.3 Population Projections ...................................................................................................... 15 4.4 Average Household Size ................................................................................................... 16 4.5 Income ................................................................................................................................. 17 5.0 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT TRENDS AND PROSPECTS ........................... 19 5.1 Recent Residential Development Trends......................................................................... 19 CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE I DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES WHITE ROCK BUSINESS NEEDS ASSESSMENT 5.2 Current Projects ................................................................................................................. 20 5.2.1 Residential Projects Currently Marketing............................................................. 20 5.2.2 Multi-Family Projects in the Approvals Process .................................................. 21 5.3 Prospects for Residential Growth in White Rock ........................................................... 23 6.0 RETAIL AND SERVICE TRENDS AND PROSPECTS ......................................... 24 6.1 Existing Retail and Service Floorspace Inventory .......................................................... 24 6.1.1 Total Inventory ..................................................................................................... 24 6.1.2 Split Between Locally-Oriented and Region-Serving Space ............................... 25 6.1.3 Share of Total Inventory that is Supermarket Space ........................................... 26 6.1.4 Existing Per Capita Ratio ..................................................................................... 27 6.2 Retail and Service Projects in the Approvals Process ................................................... 28 6.3 Forecast of Retail and Service Growth Potential ............................................................ 30 6.3.1 Total Potential Floorspace Growth in the Trade Area ......................................... 30 6.3.2 Split between Locally-Oriented and Region-Serving Space ................................ 30 6.3.3 Supermarket Space Potential .............................................................................. 31 6.3.4 Prospects for White Rock .................................................................................... 32 6.4 Summary of Findings for White Rock .............................................................................. 33 8.0 OFFICE TRENDS AND PROSPECTS .................................................................. 34 8.1 Existing Office Floorspace Inventory ............................................................................... 34 8.1.1 Total Inventory ..................................................................................................... 34 8.1.2 Existing Per Capita Ratio ..................................................................................... 35 8.2 Office Projects in the Approvals Process ........................................................................ 36 8.3 Forecast of Office Growth Potential ................................................................................. 37 8.3.1 Total Potential Floorspace Growth in the Trade Area ......................................... 37 8.3.2 Prospects for White Rock .................................................................................... 37 8.4 Summary of Findings for White Rock .............................................................................. 38 9.0 OVERNIGHT ACCOMMODATION TRENDS AND PROSPECTS ........................ 39 9.1 Current Situation ................................................................................................................ 39 9.2 Prospects for White Rock .................................................................................................. 40 CORIOLIS CONSULTING CORP. PAGE II DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES WHITE ROCK BUSINESS NEEDS ASSESSMENT 10.0 BUSINESS GAP ANALYSIS................................................................................. 41 10.1 Existing Business Roster .................................................................................................. 41 10.2 Presence of Large Format Retailers in the Trade Area .................................................. 44 10.3 Summary of Business Gaps .............................................................................................. 46 11.0 VIABILITY OF HIGHER DENSITY URBAN DEVELOPMENT .............................. 47 11.1 Identification of Case Studies ........................................................................................... 47 11.2 Steps in the Financial Analysis ......................................................................................... 48 11.3 Results of the Financial Analysis ..................................................................................... 48 11.4 Implications for White Rock .............................................................................................. 49 12.0 REVIEW OF OTHER FACTORS BUSINESSES MAY CONSIDER IN CHOOSING A LOCATION IN THE TRADE AREA ................................................................... 50 12.1 Location Relative to Higher Income Residents ............................................................... 50 12.2 Availability of Vacant Commercial Land .......................................................................... 50 12.3 Existing Mix and Location of Retailers, Particularly Anchor Tenants .......................... 51 12.4 Accessibility ........................................................................................................................ 51 12.5 Lease Rates and Operating Costs .................................................................................... 51 12.6 Parking and Loading .......................................................................................................... 52 12.6.1 Parking ................................................................................................................. 52 12.6.2 Loading ................................................................................................................ 54 12.7 Streetscape Improvements ............................................................................................... 55 12.8 Liveability ............................................................................................................................ 55 12.9 Growth Prospects in Other Destination-Oriented Waterfront Locations ..................... 57 12.10 Summary of Implications of Other Factors...................................................................... 59 13.0 REVIEW OF WHITE ROCK’S PLANNING POLICIES