Working Paper Series Working Paper 13 Managing Group Grievances and Internal Conflict: Sri Lanka Country Report G.H. Peiris and K.M. de Silva Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ Conflict Research Unit June 2003 Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’ Clingendael 7 2597 VH The Hague P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague Phonenumber: # 31-70-3245384 Telefax: # 31-70-3282002 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl/cru © Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyrightholders. Clingendael Institute, P.O. Box 93080, 2509 AB The Hague, The Netherlands. Foreword This paper has been written within the framework of the research project ‘Managing Group Grievances and Internal Conflict’*, executed at the request of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The project focuses on the process of, and motives for, (violent) group mobilisation and aims at the development of an analytical tool to assist policy-makers in designing conflict-sensitive development activities. In the course of the project, a preliminary assessment tool has been developed in cooperation with Dr. Michael Lund, and discussed with the researchers who carried out the assessment in four country cases: Ghana, Mozambique, Nicaragua and Sri Lanka. On the basis of this testing phase, the tool has been substantially amended and refined**. The present report, which was finalized in September 2002, results from the testing phase and reflects the structure of the analytical tool in its original form. Section I provides a diagnostic, dynamic narrative of various factors that may explain the levels, course or risks of conflict. Section II could be regarded as the background research to this narrative, and consists of thirteen factor assessments. This second section lays out in a structured way two distinguishable sets of factors the researchers were asked to examine in their country of study. Part A of this section covers broad social and economic factors that help to determine the major interests of groups in society and the degree and kinds of incongruities that exist between those interests. Whether these structural predisposing factors will lead to the outbreak or continuation of violent conflict depends on the extent that other factors are operative as well. These intermediating structures, processes and policies are assessed in Part B of this section. * The project ‘Managing Group Grievances & Internal Conflict’ is part of the research programme ‘Coping with Internal Conflict’ (CICP), executed by the Conflict Research Unit of the Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’, at the request of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the author. ** The report that sets out the assessment tool will be made available mid-2003. © Clingendael Institute 5 Table of Contents I DIAGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT OF CONFLICT COURSE AND PARAMETERS 9 Population and Ethnicity 9 Ethnic Relations 10 Ethnic Conflict and Historical Memories 13 Macro-Economic Change and Political Unrest 15 Poverty and Impoverishment as Factors in Political Conflict 18 Trends of Income, Poverty and Conflict 18 Entitlement Dimensions of Poverty and Conflict 19 ‘Liberalisation’ and Conflict 20 Economic Impact of the War on Conflict 21 Popular Perceptions of Inter-Group Economic Inequalities 22 Institutions of Government and Power Sharing 22 Prospects for a Negotiated Settlement of Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Conflict 23 Preparation for Negotiations 23 Background to the Ceasefire 24 Operation of the ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ 25 Outlook for Peace Negotiations 26 II SOURCES OF CONFLICT AND CAPACITIES FOR PEACE 29 A. Basic Social and Economic Conditions 29 Factor # 1. Level of General Economic Development or Deterioration 29 1.1 Economic Growth 31 1.2 Growth Rate Oscillations and Political Vicissitudes 34 1.3. Regional Inequalities of Economic Growth 35 1.4. Economic Growth, Inflation and Wage Rates 36 1.5. Household Income and Poverty: Trends up to the early 1980s 37 1.6. Household Income and Poverty: Trends after the early 1980s 38 1.7. Resource Allocation for Social Welfare 39 1.8. Social Welfare Indicators 40 1.9. Emigration and Loss of Manpower 41 6 © Clingendael Institute Factor # 2. Resource Base and the Structure of the Economy 43 2.1. Changes in the Patterns of Production 43 2.2. Trends of Agricultural Production 43 2.3. Production Trends in the Tertiary Sectors of the Economy 45 2.4. Employment Opportunities 46 2.5. The Informal Economy 48 Factor # 3. Population Distribution 49 3.1. Population Growth 50 3.2. Population and Natural Resources 51 3.3. Population Distribution, Group Identities and Resources 54 3.4. Miscellaneous Demographic Parameters 55 Factor # 4. Society’s Cohesion or Division 60 4.1. Religious and Linguistic Divisions 60 4.2. Caste Divisions 63 4.3. Class Stratifications 64 4.4. Regional Identities 64 Factor # 5. History of Inter-group Violent Conflict/Cooperation 65 Factor # 6. Distribution of Economic and Social Goods 72 6.1. Ethnicity and Production Assets in Peasant Agriculture 73 6.2. Ethnicity and Production Assets in Plantation Agriculture 75 6.3. Ethnicity and Production Assets in Manufacturing 77 6.4. Capital Assets in Other Commercialised Tertiary Activities 80 6.5. Capital Assets in Social Welfare Services 82 6.6. Ethnicity and Poverty Trends up to the early 1980s 83 6.7. Ethnicity and Poverty Trends after the early 1980s 85 6.8. Ethnicity and the Impact of Social Welfare 86 6.9. Group Differences in Employment Opportunities 88 6.10. Group Differences in Education 92 6.11. Group Differences in Health Services and Health Status 96 B. Intermediating Structures, Processes and Policies 99 Factor # 7. Group Political Mobilisation, Organisation and Strategies 99 7.1. Religion, Language and Caste in Political Mobilisation 99 7.2. Mobilisation in Electoral Politics and Group Identities 99 7.3. Other Political Organizations 105 7.4. Present Stance of Tamil Political Groups 107 Factor # 8. Openness of the Formal Political and Governing Institutions 109 8.1. Sri Lanka as an Open Society: Multiparty Democracy 109 8.2. Power Sharing 112 8.3. Devolution of Power 114 © Clingendael Institute 7 Factor # 9. Exclusive or Accommodative Governing Institutions and Decision-Making Process 118 9.1. State-Building and Ethnic Harmony, 1947-56 118 9.2. Participation in Parliament and Cabinet 118 9.3. Ethnic Representation in Bureaucracy 120 9.4. Ethnic Representation in Armed Services 121 Factor # 10. Group Participation in Non-Official and Informal Processes and Institution 122 10.1. Types of Non-Official Institutions and their Role in Conflict Resolution 122 10.2. Non-Official and Informal Processes 124 Factor # 11. Efficacy of Political Elites and Leaders 125 11.1. Willingness to Negotiate 125 11.2. Negotiation Stances 127 Factor # 12 Efficacy of Security Forces and Violations of Human Rights 129 Factor # 13. International Engagement 130 © Clingendael Institute 9 I Diagnostic Assessment of Conflict Course and Parameters Population and Ethnicity The 1981 census of population - the last enumeration that covered the entire country - showed that 74% of Sri Lanka’s population was accounted for by the Sinhalese, 12.6% by the Sri Lanka Tamils, 7.4% by the Muslims (Moors and Malays), 5.6% by the Indian Tamils, and about 0.4% by several other small ethnic groups. The census of 2001 which generated only rough estimates of the population in most districts of the ‘north-east’ of Sri Lanka indicate that, between 1981 and 2001, in the country as a whole, while the Sinhalese and Muslim shares of the population has increased, the Sri Lankan Tamil share has declined. There has been controversy on the magnitude of these changes. Language and religion could be regarded as the main ingredients of group identity of the population of Sri Lanka (Box 1). The overwhelming majority of Sinhalese (people whose mother tongue is Sinhala ) are Buddhists. Similarly, the overwhelming majority of those in the two Tamil groups whose mother tongue is Thamil, are Hindus. Muslims, the majority of whom consider Thamil as their ‘first language’, are adherents of Islam. Christianity draws its followers from the Sinhalese and Tamil segments of the population in roughly equal proportions. Table 1.1 Linguistic and Religious Group Identities in Sri Lanka % of the total 1981 population is shown in the parenthesis Language user Group Religious Group Sinhala (74.0%) Buddhist (69.3%) (4.7%) English (3.0%)* Christian (7.4%) (2.7%) Hindu (15.6%) (18.3%) Tamil (25.8%) (7.5%) Muslim (7.5%) *denotes a ‘rough estimate’ Note that for the majority of English users, it is a second language. A small percentage of Muslims use Sinhala as their main or only language. 10 © Clingendael Institute Though several areas of Sri Lanka, especially in the urban sector, have ethnically heterogeneous populations, ethnically homogeneous concentrations do occur in certain parts of the country. The Sinhalese invariably constitute the overwhelming majority in the southern, western, central and north- central parts. While in the south this group accounts for over 90% of the population, elsewhere in these parts, their share ranges from about 70% to 90%, except in the main tea plantation areas at higher elevations of the central highlands where it drops to about 40%. The foremost concentration of the Sri Lankan Tamils is found in the Jaffna peninsula, which is almost exclusively Tamil, and in the adjacent northern lowlands. Small agglomerations of this community are also found along the eastern littoral where their settlements often tend to be juxtaposed with those of the Muslims and, less frequently, with Sinhalese settlements. In 1981, approximately 27.4% of the Sri Lankan Tamil population lived outside the ‘north-east’.