Measuring Public Opinion For Over 70 Years – The Roy Morgan Research Centre Limited A.B.N. 91 004 433 265 – Quality System Certified to AS/NZS ISO 9001 Finding No. 5626 Available on Website: www.roymorgan.com On June 6, 2014 See Roy Morgan Online Store Electors say Bill Shorten (43%) is ‘Better PM’ than Tony Abbott (38%) for the first time But neither Leader has positive job approval Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 7% since October 18-20, 2013) is now regarded as the ‘Better PM’ ahead of Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%, down 2%) for the first time according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights (June 3-5, 2014). Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove Australian electors clearly disapprove of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of his job as Prime Minister with a massive 59% disapproving compared to only 34% that approve and 7% can’t say. E Australian electors have a similar view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader; 45% disapprove, 35% approve and 20% can’t say. Analysis by Gender Analysis by gender shows women clearly support Shorten (46%) cf. Abbott (37%) while support from men support Abbott (40%) and Shorten (40%) equally for Better Prime Minister. Majorities of both women (62%) and men (57%) disapprove of Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 33% of women and 36% of men that approve. The figures are similar for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with more women (43%) and men (47%) disapproving of Shorten’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader and only 36% of women and 34% of men approving. Gary Morgan says: “Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 7% since October 2013) is now regarded as the ‘Better PM’ for the first time ahead of current Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%, down 2%). “However, despite Shorten leading Abbott on this measure, electors clearly disapprove of the way both leaders are handling their current jobs – 59% disapprove of Abbott’s performance as Prime Minister compared to only 34% that approve while 45% disapprove of Shorten’s performance as Opposition Leader compared to only 35% that approve.” For the Poll ‘nerds’ The telephone Morgan Poll shows Two-Party preferred: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%. The last multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends of May 24/25 & 31/ June 1 shows the ALP (56.5%) with a clear lead over the L-NP (43.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. This week’s telephone Morgan Poll shows the primary vote is L-NP 38.5%, ALP 36%, Greens 12.5%, Palmer United Party 3.5% and Independent/Others 9.5%. Of those surveyed 2% did not name a party. This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights this week June 3-5, FOR IMMEDIATE RELEAS 2014, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors. Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue). For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 401 Collins Street, Melbourne, Victoria 3000, G.P.O. Box 2282U, Melbourne, Victoria 3001, Australia Tel: (03) 9629 6888 Fax: (03) 9629 1250 (03) 9622 8387 Email: [email protected] Website: www.roymorgan.com Offices also in: Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Canberra, London, Auckland & USA Better Prime Minister: Abbott v Shorten Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Tony Abbott and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Abbott or Mr. Shorten?” Rudd/ Gillard v Abbott Abbott v Shorten PM Kevin Prime Minister Prime Minister Prime Minister Kevin Rudd Rudd Julia Gillard Tony Abbott May 12/13, Mar 16/17, June 11/12, July 16/17, Aug 12/13, Aug 28/29, Oct 18-20, June 4-6, 2010 2011 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 % % % % % % % % Rudd/ PM Abbott 49 59 50 52 46 43 40 38 Abbott/ Shorten 37 32 43 36 43 44 36 43 Rudd/ Abbott lead 12 27 7 16 3 (1) 4 (5) Other / Can’t say 14 9 7 12 11 13 24 19 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age June 4-6, Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 2014 % % % % % % % % Abbott 38 40 37 17 27 35 48 50 Shorten 43 40 46 60 51 46 32 38 Abbott lead (5) - (9) (43) (24) (11) 16 12 Neither/ Can’t say 19 20 17 23 22 19 20 12 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 4-6, Ind/ L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Can’t say 2014 Others % % % % % % % Abbott 38 82 7 15 6 31 - Shorten 43 7 73 66 28 46 46 Abbott lead (5) 75 (66) (51) (22) (15) (46) Neither/ Can’t say 19 11 20 19 66 23 54 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Approval of Leaders – Tony Abbott v Bill Shorten Prime Minister: Tony Abbott Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Prime Minister?” PM Prime Minister Julia Gillard Prime Minister Kevin Rudd Abbott Jan 17/18, Sep 17-20, Nov 27-29, June 11/12, July 16/17, Aug 12/13, Aug 28/29, June 4-6, 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 % % % % % % % % Approve 34 40 42 27 45 40 36 34 Disapprove 54 51 48 65 40 49 53 59 Approve - Disapprove (20) (11) (6) (38) 5 (9) (17) (25) Can’t say 12 9 10 8 15 11 11 7 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age June 4-6, Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 2014 % % % % % % % % Approve 34 36 33 16 27 32 42 43 Disapprove 59 57 62 81 66 62 51 52 Approve - Disapprove (25) (21) (29) (65) (39) (30) (9) (9) Can’t say 7 7 5 3 7 6 7 5 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 4-6, Ind/ L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Can’t say 2014 Others % % % % % % % Approve 34 76 6 7 5 24 5 Disapprove 59 15 89 90 95 66 95 Approve - Disapprove (25) 61 (83) (83) (90 (42) (90) Can’t say 7 9 5 3 - 10 - TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?” Shorten as Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader Oppn. Ldr. Jan 17/18, Sep 17-20, Nov 27-29, June 11/12, July 16/17, Aug 12/13, Aug 28/29, June 4-6, 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 % % % % % % % % Approve 36 32 28 41 38 42 41 35 Disapprove 56 60 63 51 54 48 51 45 Approve - Disapprove (20) (28) (35) (10) (16) (6) (10) (10) Can’t say 8 8 9 8 8 10 8 20 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Sex & Age June 4-6, Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 2014 % % % % % % % % Approve 35 34 36 34 39 34 36 31 Disapprove 45 47 43 23 32 43 53 56 Approve - Disapprove (10) (13) (7) 11 7 (9) (17) (25) Can’t say 20 19 21 43 29 23 11 13 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Electors 18+ Analysis by Federal Voting Intention June 4-6, Ind/ L-NP ALP Greens Palmer Can’t say 2014 Others % % % % % % % Approve 35 25 51 30 5 35 18 Disapprove 45 63 22 52 87 35 21 Approve - Disapprove (10) (38) 29 (22) (82) - (3) Can’t say 20 12 27 18 8 30 61 TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Sample Size Percentage Estimate 40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95% 500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9 For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification. .