MetroWest Phase 1 Preliminary Business Case Report 3 September 2014 MetroWest Phase 1 MetroWest Phase 1 Preliminary (Strategic Outline) Business Case 3 September 2014 Contents Section Page Acronyms and Abbreviations ................................................................................................................. Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. i 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Project overview ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose of this report ......................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Structure of remainder of this document ........................................................................... 4 2 Strategic Case .......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 5 2.2 Business strategy ................................................................................................................ 5 2.2.1 Business context .................................................................................................... 5 2.2.2 West of England LEP Strategic Economic Plan ....................................................... 5 2.2.3 Network Rail Business Plan .................................................................................... 6 2.2.4 Shared strategic aims ............................................................................................. 6 2.3 Problems identified and objectives .................................................................................... 7 2.3.1 Overview ................................................................................................................ 7 2.3.2 Economic growth ................................................................................................... 7 2.3.3 Tackling congestion and improving transport network resilience ...................... 11 2.3.4 Accessibility .......................................................................................................... 15 2.3.5 Environment and social well being ...................................................................... 16 2.4 Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 18 2.4.1 Policy Context ...................................................................................................... 18 2.5 Drivers for change ............................................................................................................. 19 2.6 Scope of the scheme ......................................................................................................... 20 2.7 Constraints ........................................................................................................................ 22 2.8 Inter‐dependencies ........................................................................................................... 22 2.9 Stakeholders ..................................................................................................................... 23 2.10 Options .............................................................................................................................. 23 2.10.1 Macro‐level optioneering .................................................................................... 23 2.10.2 Mode and route specific optioneering ................................................................ 25 2.10.3 Options considered in the Preliminary Business Case (PBC) ............................... 26 2.10.4 Consideration of a lower cost alternative ........................................................... 29 2.11 Summary of strategic case ................................................................................................ 30 3 Economic Case ....................................................................................................................... 31 3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 31 3.2 Options appraised ............................................................................................................. 31 3.3 Transport modelling methodology overview ................................................................... 33 3.4 Summary of modelled scheme impacts ............................................................................ 34 3.5 Key economic assumptions............................................................................................... 35 3.6 Economy impacts .............................................................................................................. 36 3.6.1 Business users & transport providers (TEE Tables) ............................................. 36 3.6.2 Reliability impacts on Business users .................................................................. 38 3.6.3 Regeneration and Wider impacts ........................................................................ 38 3.7 Environment impacts ........................................................................................................ 38 3.7.1 Noise .................................................................................................................... 39 3.7.2 Air quality ............................................................................................................. 39 3.7.3 Greenhouse gases ................................................................................................ 41 METROWEST PHASE 1 - PBC 3 SEPT 2014.DOCX METROWEST PHASE 1, PRELIMINARY (STRATEGIC OUTLINE) BUSINESS CASE : CONTENTS, CONTINUED Section Page 3.7.4 Landscape ............................................................................................................. 42 3.7.5 Townscape ............................................................................................................ 42 3.7.6 Heritage of historic resources .............................................................................. 42 3.7.7 Biodiversity ........................................................................................................... 43 3.7.8 Water environment .............................................................................................. 45 3.8 Social impacts .................................................................................................................... 45 3.8.1 Commuting and Other users (TEE Tables) and Reliability impacts on Commuting and Other users .................................................................................................... 45 3.8.2 Physical activity .................................................................................................... 45 3.8.3 Journey quality ..................................................................................................... 46 3.8.4 Accidents .............................................................................................................. 46 3.8.5 Affordability .......................................................................................................... 47 3.8.6 Security ................................................................................................................. 47 3.8.7 Access to services ................................................................................................. 47 3.8.8 Severance ............................................................................................................. 48 3.8.9 Option Values ....................................................................................................... 49 3.8.10 Distributional impacts .......................................................................................... 49 3.9 Public Accounts impacts .................................................................................................... 54 3.9.1 Broad Transport Budget ....................................................................................... 54 3.9.2 Indirect Tax Revenues .......................................................................................... 55 3.10 Performance of option variants ........................................................................................ 55 3.11 Summary of impacts .......................................................................................................... 56 3.11.1 Value for Money Statement ................................................................................. 56 3.11.2 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits (AMCB) Tables ................................... 58 3.11.3 Appraisal Summary Table (AST) ........................................................................... 58 4 Commercial case .................................................................................................................... 61 4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................