WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES ON FARMERS’ CLIMATE RISK PERCEPTIONS IN THE BOLIVIAN HIGHLANDS? _______________________________________ A Thesis presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School at the University of Missouri-Columbia _______________________________________________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science _____________________________________________________ by LISA MARIE REES Dr. Corinne Valdivia, Thesis Supervisor MAY 2009 The undersigned, appointed by the dean of the Graduate School, have examined the thesis entitled: WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF LIVELIHOOD STRATEGIES ON FARMERS’ CLIMATE RISK PERCEPTIONS IN THE BOLIVIAN HIGHLANDS? presented by Lisa Marie Rees, a candidate for the degree of master of science, and hereby certify that, in their opinion, it is worthy of acceptance. Professor Corinne Valdivia Professor Harvey James Professor Jere Gilles To Mom and Dad, Robert and Norma Rees, Thank you for all of your love, support and encouragement throughout my academic journey. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would especially like to thank my advisor, Dr. Corinne Valdivia for all her guidance and support throughout my research. I appreciate her help in tying together the two literatures of livelihood strategies and risk perceptions. Also, I would like to thank my thesis committee members, Dr. Harvey James and Dr. Jere Gilles, for taking time to serve on my committee. I appreciate Dr. Gilles’ support and help with my field research. Also, I appreciate his comments in improving this research. I would like to thank Dr. James for his help in improving the logic and models of my thesis. I would like to thank the Department of Agricultural Economics and the SANREM CRSP grant for providing me funding to complete my graduate studies and my research. I am appreciative of the funds provided by the Dorris D. & Christine M. Brown Graduate Research Fellowship that allowed me to conduct my field research. I would like to express gratitude to the individuals that helped me coordinate my research in Bolivia. I appreciate the oversight of my field research from Dr. Elizabeth Jiminez. I would like to thank Olga Yana for all of her help in coordinating the focus groups. I thank Griselda Gonzales for helping me feel more comfortable in my surrounding there. Also, I would like to thank Porfi Ajata for her help in identifying the focus group participants. I would like to give a special thanks to Alejandro Romero, Griselda Gonzales, Olga Yana, Miriam Gomez and Justina Condori for facilitating the focus group discussions. Also, I appreciate Olga Yana and Alejandro Romero efforts in transcribing the focus groups. I extend thanks to Matty Figueroa for translating the transcriptions. I appreciate the help of Matt Elliott, who gave me suggestions and support with this thesis. Also, I would like to thank Dr. Joe Parcell for his encouragement in pursuing a graduate degree. I wish to give a special thanks to Dr. Jan Dauve, Dr. Abner Womack, Dr. Scott Brown, Mrs. Lori Wilcox and Dr. Rob Myers for all being an inspiration in my academic career. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ................................................................................................ ii LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... vii Chapter I. INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................1 Problem ....................................................................................................................1 Objectives ................................................................................................................6 II. LITERATURE REVIEW .........................................................................................7 Peasant Economy ......................................................................................................7 Livelihoods Strategies .............................................................................................11 Risk Perception .......................................................................................................13 III. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ...........................................................................27 IV. THE BOLIVIAN ALTIPLANO .............................................................................33 Overview of Ancoraimes and Umala .....................................................................33 Physical ...................................................................................................33 Economic ................................................................................................37 Production ...............................................................................................39 V. PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE IN THE RURAL COMMUNITIES .....................41 Method ....................................................................................................................41 Findings ..................................................................................................................46 Weather/Climate Change ........................................................................46 iii Weather Event Severity ..........................................................................47 Event Effects ...........................................................................................47 Prevention ...............................................................................................49 Coping .....................................................................................................50 VI. METHODS AND PROCEDURES ........................................................................53 Survey .....................................................................................................................53 Regression Models .................................................................................................59 Individual Climate Events Models .........................................................................67 VII. FINDINGS ............................................................................................................69 Overall Model .......................................................................................................69 Individual Climate Event Models .........................................................................72 Focus Groups ........................................................................................................81 Risk Management Strategies ....................................................................81 Climate Risk Information ........................................................................82 Climate Risk Feelings ..............................................................................82 VIII. CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................84 Findings..................................................................................................................84 Policy Implications ................................................................................................91 Further Research ....................................................................................................92 APPENDIX .......................................................................................................................94 A. TRANSCRIPTIONS OF FOCUS GROUPS ..................................................94 B. ORDINAL LOGISTIC MODEL ..................................................................131 C. OTHER INDIVIDUAL CLIMATE EVENT MODELS ..............................133 BIBLIOGRAPHY ............................................................................................................140 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Conceptual Model of the Household Economic Portfolio ............................................11 2. Conceptual Framework for a Smallholder Farmer’s Risk Perception in Ethiopia .......25 3. Slovic’s (1987) Dread and Unknown Relationship to Risk Perception ........................28 4. Contributing Factors to Climate Risk Perceptions........................................................29 5. (A-D) Location of the Study Communities in the Altiplano of Bolivia .......................34 6. Altitude Distribution of the Communities of Umala and Ancoraimes .........................35 7. Climate Risk Perception Model ....................................................................................55 8. Ordinal Logistic Regression Model- Logit link ............................................................59 v LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Mean, standard deviation (S.D), coefficient of variation (CV), maximum (Max) and minimum (min) annual precipitation, and frequency distribution (%) of precipitation patterns of four locations the Bolivian Altiplano ............................................................36 2. Subjective Climate Risk vs. Objective Risk .................................................................36 3. 2001 Standard of Living Indicators for Bolivia and Municipalities .............................38