Gathering storm clouds Political and economic uncertainty in Central Africa Fonteh Akum and Zachary Donnenfeld1 The Central African region is facing remarkable pressure along several fronts. The recent downturn in global commodity prices is exacerbating an already fragile fiscal situation in the region. Moreover, rapid population growth is accentuating the challenges related to poor service delivery, while the uncertainty around future political transitions lends itself to a pessimistic outlook. Although the region faces serious problems, interconnected regional and country- specific policy approaches provide the best opportunity for peace and prosperity in the region. CENTRAL AFRICA REPORT 11 | NOVEMBER 2017 Introduction Key points The decline in commodity prices since 2014 has triggered an economic Redress the thorny issue of crisis in Central Africa. It has exposed existing structural contradictions and state capture and pseudo- the already frail sociopolitical fault lines of the petro-dependent economies democratic governance by of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC). The sclerotic regimes immediate outlook for the regional economy is bleak. With economic growth Promote regional economic averaging 0.6% in 2016, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects only complementarity meagre improvement to 1% in 2017. Equatorial Guinea was the hardest hit economy, shrinking by 10% last year. Chad and the Republic of Congo also Diversify economies through experienced negative economic growth in 2016. Only the Central African agricultural and environmental Republic (CAR) and Cameroon expect to experience growth of more than 4% investment per year in the near future.2 Build connected regional transport infrastructure Figure 1: Central/West African regions Tie investments in infrastructure to social goods Capitalise on the region’s women and youth population Promote innovative evidence- based policymaking Table 1: Basic country information3 Country Population President In power (A–Z) (millions) since Cameroon 23.4 Paul Biya 1982 Faustin-Archange CAR 4.6 2016 Touadera Chad 14.6 Idriss Deby 1990 Congo, Republic of 5.1 Denis Sassou Nguesso 19794 Teodoro Obiang Equatorial Guinea 1.2 1979 Nguema Gabon 1.9 Ali Bongo 20095 2 GATHERING STORM CLOUDS: POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY IN CENTRAL AFRICA To absorb shocks resulting from the decline in public clouds? This report combines an analysis of current revenue triggered by the collapse of commodity prices, political and socioeconomic patterns with data and these countries have lined up before the IMF for bailout forecasts from the International Futures (IFs) system – packages broadly negotiated under the Extended Credit developed and housed at the Frederick S Pardee Center Facility.6 However, a macroeconomic solution alone for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of cannot resolve the underlying political dimension of the International Studies at the University of Denver – to challenges they face. explore key development trends up to 2040 and place those prevailing trends within the broader context of the This report’s focus on the six CEMAC countries social and political realities of the CEMAC countries.8 is deliberate given their historical trajectories and geographical proximity. It explicitly avoids a forensic institutional evaluation of either CEMAC or the larger Box 1: International Futures (IFs) Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS),7 despite acknowledging the central role that IFs is a long-term, integrated assessment both organisations ought to play in promoting regional model that leverages historical data (over 4 000 integration and setting a human development-focused series) to map trends and forecast hundreds of policy agenda that yields security dividends. variables for 186 countries from 2015 to 2100. There are three primary avenues for analysis in IFs: historical exploration (how systems have The CEMAC countries all evidence a developed thus far), Current Path analysis neo-patrimonial governance system that (where systems seem to be heading given current policies and environmental conditions) pays scant attention to the promotion and alternative scenario development (exploring of collective human development ‘if, then’ statements about the future). IFs offers empirically grounded, futures-oriented policy analysis that helps frame uncertainty around In-depth country analysis is necessary, but regions are the development trajectories of countries also objects of analysis in themselves. Regional analyses (or groups of countries) across a number of can provide a broader context for understanding the development systems. The tool also helps interconnected nature of today’s world and the outcomes users think more systematically about potential of processes affecting neighbouring countries. futures and development targets, in order to advance more holistic solutions to Africa’s While the report does take a brief detour to explore some human security challenges. country-level indicators, the predominant focus is on the trajectory of the region and situating that within an African context. A detailed examination of the specific characteristics of member states would be necessary to Comparative regional outlook inform policy in those countries, but such an exhaustive According to the African Development Bank, recent analysis is beyond the scope of this report. governance trends in Africa show a growing demand for better economic opportunities and more accountability This report largely takes CEMAC as its unit of analysis with respect to public policy.9 Those results are largely and aims to frame the complex political dynamics in the confirmed by the most recent Afrobarometer survey, region within the context of structural changes occurring which finds that roughly three-fourths of respondents across demographic, social and economic systems. In believe that their members of Parliament (MPs) and general, and despite their stark differences, the CEMAC councillors ‘never’ or ‘only sometimes’ listen to their countries all evidence a neo-patrimonial governance constituents, and that fewer than half of Africans approve system that pays scant attention to the promotion of of the job performance of their MPs or councillors.10 collective human development. Furthermore, in 2016 governments’ inability to address Against this backdrop the key question is, can the unemployment was the most commonly cited issue Central African region dissipate the gathering storm among survey respondents.11 CENTRAL AFRICA REPORT 11 | NOVEMBER 2017 3 However, this is a general picture, and viewing trends last year – is Chad, where the current regime has been at the continental level may obscure the particular in power for 27 years. The Bongo family have held on challenges of governance arrangements that shape to power in Gabon since 1967. In Equatorial Guinea, participation, access, exclusion and service delivery Cameroon and the Republic of Congo the same at the regional and national levels. Table 2 lists the presidents have been in power for 38, 35 and 33 non- average scores for regime type (Polity IV), Civil and consecutive years, respectively. Political freedom (Freedom House) and Government Effectiveness (World Bank), as well as those of the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency Regimes have devised creative International) and the Index of African Governance (Mo strategies to retain their hold on power Ibrahim Foundation) for various African regions, along with the average for the continent and the world.12 Table Benchmarking against the Current Path forecast within 2 clearly shows that poor governance is a prominent IFs helps frame the current political, security and issue in the CEMAC region. economic realities in Central Africa within the broader Resistance to lowering barriers to more responsive structural changes unfolding throughout the region in and effective governance (often from the highest levels) areas such as demography, social services and core and apathy from public officials towards effectively infrastructure. By combining this macro-level analysis operationalising regional integration have contributed with regional expertise, the report provides a more to the gathering storm clouds over the CEMAC comprehensive understanding of the types of collective region. Such public policy choices have implications responses most likely to effectively enhance human for sustainable economic recovery, long-term human security in Central Africa. To further contextualise development, collective security and stability at both this analysis, the CEMAC countries will be measured national and regional levels. against the countries in the West African Economic and 13 At the same time, oppositional battle lines have Monetary Union (WAEMU). hardened in a region where regimes have devised WAEMU was selected because it shares a colonial creative strategies to retain their hold on power. The history with the CEMAC countries, although over the youngest regime in the region – besides the CAR, past decade WEAMU countries (with the exception of which experienced a tumultuous post-war transition Togo) have made a resolute shift toward actualising Table 2: Various measures of governance in different regions of Africa relative to the average for Africa and the world14 Region Regime type Civil and Government Corruption Ibrahim (-10 to +10) Political Effectiveness (0 to 10) Governance freedom (0 to 5) Index (0 to 14) (0 to 1) CEMAC -3.1 3.6 1.3 2.3 0.40 WAEMU 4.2 8.5