The Global Refugee Crisis: Regional Destabilization & Humanitarian Protection Sarah Kenyon Lischer Abstract: In addition to being a tragic output of civil war, large-scale displacement crises often become enmeshed in the politics, security, and economics of the conflict. Refugee and internally displaced popu- lations thus exacerbate concerns about regional destabilization. The Syrian refugee crisis, for example, is deeply entwined with civil and international conflict. Neighboring host states of Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon bear the brunt of the crisis, while European states seek to prevent further encroachment by Mid- dle Eastern asylum seekers. Policy-makers often mistakenly view host state security and refugee security as unrelated–or even opposing–factors. In reality, refugee protection and state stability are linked to- gether; undermining one factor weakens the other. Policies to protect refugees, both physically and legal- ly, reduce potential threats from the crisis and bolster state security. In general, risks of conflict are higher when refugees live in oppressive settings, lack legal income-generation options, and are denied education for their youth. The dangers related to the global refugee crisis interact with many other threats that em- anate from civil wars and weak states, such as fragile governments, rebel and terrorist group activity, and religious or ethnic fragmentation. Millions of people around the world today have fled their homes to escape civil war and other violence. Recent United Nations figures report 22.5 million refugees and 38 million internally displaced persons SARAH KENYON LISCHER is As- (idps). Statistics from 1996 to 2016 show that refugee sociate Professor in the Depart- numbers are at a twenty-year high. Internal displace- ment of Politics and International ment, in which people are forced from their homes Affairs at Wake Forest University. but cannot cross the border, is also at a twenty-year She is the author of Dangerous Sanc- high. Remarkably, 55 percent of the world’s refugees tuaries: Refugee Camps, Civil War, and come from three states experiencing protracted civil the Dilemmas of Humanitarian Aid wars: Syria (5.5 million), Somalia (1.4 million), and (2005) and has published articles 1 in such journals as International Se- Afghanistan (2.5 million). Contrary to their expec- curity, The American Scholar, Conflict, tations of sanctuary, many of these people continue Security, and Development, and Global to experience security threats in their new locations. Governance. Manipulation of refugee groups for political and stra- © 2017 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences doi:10.1162/DAED_a_00461 85 The tegic purposes generally reduces their safe- tant states. In the worst-case scenario, de- Global ty and downplays the human suffering as- stabilization of the host state and threats to Refugee Crisis sociated with the crisis. In addition to being refugee protection can exacerbate civil and a tragic output of civil war, massive and in- international conflict. tractable refugee crises often become deeply In Lebanon, a country already coping enmeshed in the politics, security, and eco- with political and economic difficulties, nomics of the conflict. Syrian refugees now account for more than Early responses to refugee flows usu- 20 percent of the population. Local Leba- ally address functional and practical is- nese citizens blame the influx of refugees sues, actions such as meeting basic needs for increasing food and housing prices and and working out the logistics of displace- for undermining wages.2 The mostly Sun- ment, but these rarely require direct atten- ni Arab newcomers affect the delicate sec- tion from national political leaders. As the tarian balance, which also includes Chris- crisis grows geographically and numeri- tians and Shia Muslims. The antigovern- cally, national leaders are confronted by ment Shia group, Hezbollah, actually offers the broader implications of refugee pop- significant military assistance to the As- ulations, though government discourse sad government in Syria. The Internation- focuses more on the humanitarian disas- al Crisis Group explained that “the specter ter, rather than the conflict itself, increas- of renewed conflict has led the Lebanese au- ing the likelihood of scapegoating and ma- thorities to adopt a heavy-handed security nipulation. Temporary situations begin to approach toward the refugees” that has in- seem more permanent, increasing displace- cluded raids on refugee encampments and ment-related tensions within and between arrests of refugee men.3 Governments such affected states. A major concern of inter- as Lebanon’s that bear the brunt of region- national negotiation then revolves around al crises therefore express resentment when dealing with the “excess” people produced the United States and other wealthy coun- by the conflict, sometimes even eclipsing tries refuse to accept even a miniscule pro- the focus on conflict resolution. portion of the displaced people. Regional Many host states express concern about governments have increasingly used refu- the destabilizing effects of sizeable refugee gees as leverage in negotiations with West- populations. Large-scale forced displace- ern states desperate to prevent the mass ar- ment places an immense strain on the re- rival of asylum seekers. Humanitarian or- sources of the host states, the refugees, and ganizations, refugees, and sympathetic gov- international donors. Some governing par- ernments condemn the manipulation of ties fear a loss of power due to popular an- displaced populations for political rea- ger over economic hardship and social pres- sons. Advocates are particularly critical of sures sparked by large refugee populations. measures, such as forced return to conflict Refugee crises may exacerbate existing po- zones, that contravene the international le- litical, ethnic, or religious tensions within gal principles of refugee protection. In some the host state or between the host and send- situations, overwhelmed or hostile host ing states. Refugee demographics can create states reduce legal protection and human- an unstable ethnic balance that encourag- itarian aid, which can lead to violence and es a previously oppressed minority to con- renewed displacement. Destabilization and front the government. Host states strug- human rights abuses in the first country of gling to meet the needs of both displaced asylum can spur secondary displacement, people and their own citizens resent the as we have seen in the mass movement of lack of assistance from wealthier, more dis- refugees from the Middle East to Europe. 86 Dædalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences The most extreme outcome is the spread pediment to peace-building and stability. Sarah of violence across borders, which occurs if Unlike refugee populations, idps present Kenyon Lischer the original conflict spreads from the refu- less risk to regional stability or the interna- gee-sending state via cross-border attacks, tional spread of civil war. rebel activity, or invasion. Militants may The violence directed at refugees and mix among the refugees, as occurred when idps generally far outweighs criminal or the militarized Rwandan Hutu state-in- militant activity emanating from the pop- exile fled to Zaire among millions of refu- ulation. For example, Palestinian refugees gees following the 1994 genocide. Refugee- within Syria have faced mounting difficul- related violence remains rare, however, and ties now that they are also internally dis- observers caution against treating all refu- placed. The Brookings Institution report- gees “as potential threats to be controlled, ed that, in 2011, the Yarmouk camp near rather than as displaced victims of conflict Damascus held 150,000 to 200,000 Pales- in need of asylum.”4 Indeed, drawing on tinians, as well as 650,000 Syrians. Later, Stephen Stedman and Bruce Jones’s argu- in 2012, “intense fighting broke out in the ment, which downplays the current rhet- camp between pro-regime and opposition oric about global chaos, one could argue forces, with the Free Syrian Army and the that attention to the global refugee crisis Al Nusra Front taking control of the camp has more to do with its influence on Eu- by the end of the year.”7 Most of the Syri- rope and the Middle East than a qualitative ans left the camp. The Syrian government change in the nature of displacement. Sted- imposed a siege on the camp in mid-2013. man and Jones have labeled as “preposter- After the siege was “relaxed” in early 2014, ous” the idea that refugees from the Mid- it then suffered attack by isis in April 2015. dle East fundamentally threaten European As of fall 2015, five to eight thousand peo- security.5 ple remained in Yarmouk.8 The Palestinian In addition to displacement across inter- refugees in Syria thus suffered the effects national borders, most conflicts include of multiple types of displacement. large numbers of idps. In conflicts such as Large-scale forced migration initially af- Syria, Iraq, and Colombia, there are more fects the specific hosting states and refugee people displaced within the borders than groups, however, those trends can also have outside them. As of 2015, 6.7 million Co- a much broader reach. Considering the po- lombians were displaced within the coun- tential for exacerbating conflict or under- try due to the decades-long conflict there, mining peace efforts, this essay explores whereas 360,000 Colombians were regis- the following questions: Under