If you have issues viewing or accessing this file contact us at NCJRS.gov. " • WHAT METHODS OF RESPONSE WILL MEDIUM AND SMALL SIZE LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES USE FOR HIGH RISK INCIDENTS BY THE YEAR 2004? TECHNICAL REPORT . • BY LT. DAVID W. BLISS COMMAND COLLEGE CLASS XIX CALIFORNIA COMMISSION ON PEACE OFFICER STANDARDS AND TRAINING January 1995 • 19-0377 • This Command College Independent Study Project is a FUTURES study of a particular emerging issue in law enforcement. Its purpose is NOT to predict the future, but rather to project a num~er of possible scenarios for strategic planning consider­ ation. Defining the future differs from analyzing the past because the future has not yet happened. In this project, useful alternatives have been formulated systematically so that the planner can respond to a range of possible future environments. Managing the future means influencing the future-­ • creating it, constraining it, adapting to it. A futures study points the way. The views and conclusions expressed in the Com­ mand College project are those of the author and are not necessarily those of the Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training (POST). ©1995 by the California Commission on Peace Officer Standards and Training 154748 U.S. Department of Justice National Institute of Justice This document has been reproduced exactly as received from the person or organization originating it. Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the National Institute of Justice. Permission to reprodl'ce this copyrighted material has been graole ci,by .t;' " ca~lLOrnla COmmlSS10n on Peace Officer Standards and Training • to the National Criminal Justice Reference Service (NCJRS). Further reproduction outside of the NCJRS system relluires permission of the copyright owner. -------------------------------------------------------------------- TABLE OF CONTENTS • SECTION I INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................... 1 Background and Issue Identification....................................................................................... 2 Defining the Issue................................................................................................................... 1 4 Issue Statement........................... ............................................................ .......... ......... ..... ........ 1 6 Futures Wheel (Illustration One)........................................................................................... i 7 SECTION II FORECASTING THE FUTURE............................................................................................. 1 8 Research Design..................................................................................................................... 1 8 Futures Research Flow Chart (Illustration Two}................................................................. 1 8 Nominal Group Technique....................................................................................................... 1 9 Top Ten Trends ........................ ".............................................................................................. 20 Top Ten Events........................................................................................................................ 22 Trend Forecasting ......................................................................... .,........................................ 24 Trend Evaluation Form (Chart One}...................................................................................... 25 Trend Forecasts (Graphs 1·1 0) ............................... ".......................................................... 26 Event Forecasting................................................................................................................... 36 Event Evaluation Form (Chart Two) ............... "".................................................................... 36 Event Forecasts (Graphs 11-20}.................................................................... ..................... 37 Event Cross Impact Matrix {Chart Three}............................................................................ 47 Sigma Generated Scenarios... ...... ............. ..................................... ................ ...... ...... ......... ..... 4 8 Scenarios (Nominal, Normative & Hypothetical}.................................................................. 49 • Scenario One (Nominal Scenario}.......................................................................................... 50 Scenario Two (Normative Scenario)...................................................................................... 56 Scenario Three (Hypothetical Scenario)................................................................................ 64 Policy Considerations.............................................................................................................. 66 SECTION III STRATEGIC PLAN................................................................................................................. 69 Process Overview.................................................................................................................... 69 tv1ission Statement.................... ............... ................... ........................... ........... ............ ....... .... 7 0 Environmental Analysis........................................................................................................... 7 a Opportunities.......................................................................................................................... 71 Threats.................................................................................................................................... 74 Organizational Ar:talysis ..................................................................................... :..................... 76 Strengths............................ ...... ......... .......... ........... ........... .............. ........ .......... ............... ....... 7 6 Weaknesses.............................................................................................................................. 77 Stakeholder Analysis................ ................... .......... ....................... ..... ........ ...... ................ ......... 77 Assumption Mapping (Illustration Three}.............................................................................. 80 Alternative Strategies............................................................................................................. 8 1 Strategy One............................................................................................................................ 82 Strategy Two.......................... ............ ................ ....... .......................... ........ .... .... ........ ....... ..... 8 4 i i Strategy Three ............................................................................."......................................... 85 • Selected Strategy ........................................................................................... "........................ 8 7 Implementation Plan............................................................................................................... 88 SECTION IV TRANSITION MANAGEMENT............................................................................................. 91 Identification of Key Players.................................................................................................. 9 1 Commitment Chart (Chart Four}........................................................................................... 92 Management Structure............................................................................................................ 96 Technologies and Methods to Support Implementation........................................................... 97 Commitment Planning............................................................................................................. 97 Problem Finding..................................................................................................................... 97 Educational Intervention......................................................................................................... 98 Confrontation/Goal Setting Meeting........................................................................................ 99 Responsibility Charting ...................................................... ,................................................... 99 Transition Management (Outline of Major Events} ................................................................ 1 00 Transition Management Summary ........................................................................................... 1 03 SECTION V Conclusion ......................................................................................................................... 105 Appendix A (Nominal Group Technique Panel} ................... :.................................................. 1 08 Appendix B (Initial Trends and Events} ................................................................................. 110 Bibliography. ............... ........................................................................................................... 1 1 5 • iii SECTION I - INTRODUCTION • This introduction