The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture - 1996 OVERVIEW PRODUCTION In recent years fish supplies have expanded rapidly. As reported in the new edition of The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, in 1994 they reached 109.6 million tonnes, and preliminary figures for 1995 indicated a new peak of total production at 112.3 million tonnes. The increase is mainly a result of continued rapid growth in aquaculture production, particularly in China, and rapid expansion of highly fluctuating harvestable stocks of pelagic species off the west coast of South America. Both fishmeal production and fish supplies for human consumption have reached record levels. In 1995, landings by capture fisheries reached about 91 million tonnes. Ten countries accounted for about 70 percent of the volume. Aggregate production in the low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) continued the pattern of high growth that has characterized recent years, showing an average annual rate of increase of 6.9 percent during the period 1988 to 1994. In 1994, LIFDCs accounted for 35 percent of total production, compared with 26 percent in 1988. Provisional production figures for mariculture and inland aquaculture show an estimated increase from 18.6 million tonnes in 1994 to 21.3 million tonnes in 1995, more than offsetting a very small (i.e. 0.02 million tonne) decline in the harvest from marine and inland capture fisheries during the same period. The rapid growth in aquaculture production is the result of an increased predominance of Asian aquaculture and of carp species. Five Asian countries (China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines) accounted for 80 percent of the volume of aquaculture produce. In 1994 carps accounted for almost half of the total volume of cultured aquatic products (aquatic plants excluded). Even though cultured fish and shellfish contribute significantly to total national fishery production, aquaculture in most countries is dominated by a few species. UTILIZATION Of the preliminary figure of 112.3 million tonnes of total fishery production in 1995, it is calculated that some 31.5 million tonnes were used for reduction. The amount of fish available for direct human consumption in 1995 was estimated to be 80 million tonnes, 3.4 million tonnes more than in 1994, representing a greater increase than the estimated population growth rate in the same year. Therefore, average annual per caput availability of food fish increased to 14 kg. TRADE The value of international fish trade continues to increase. In 1985, the value of international fish exports was US$17 billion. In 1990, it was US$35.8 billion. In 1994 it had reached US$47 billion. The increased volume of international trade in fishery products in 1994 was associated with higher trade in low-value commodities such as fishmeal, with the result that the value of exports increased less than the volume. Preliminary figures for 1995 indicated an increase in the value of trade because of higher prices. However, in recent years the growth in value of international fish trade has slowed down. INLAND AND MARINE FISHERY PRODUCTION WORLD FISH UTILIZATION Developed countries accounted for about 85 percent of total fish imports in 1995 in value terms. Japan continued to be the world’s biggest importer of fishery products, with some 30 percent of the global total. In 1995, fish imports by all three major world importers (Japan, the European Union and the United States) increased. For many developing nations, fish trade represents a significant source of foreign currency earnings. Net receipts of foreign exchange by developing countries - calculated by deducting their imports from the total value of their exports - demonstrated an impressive increase from US$5.1 billion in 1985 to US$16 billion in 1994, and a further increase was likely for 1995. ISSUES FOR SUSTAINABLE FISHERIES In the first half of the 1990s the international community addressed several of the management issues connected with sustainable fisheries: · how to reduce overfishing and control fishing capacity; · how to reduce by-catches and discarding; · how to reduce environmental degradation of catchment and coastal areas; · how to deal with uncertainty and risk. The discussion resulted in the concept of responsible fisheries and the elaboration and adoption of the Code of Conduct on Responsible Fisheries by the Conference of FAO in Rome in October 1995. EXPLORATORY ESTIMATES: PER CAPUT AND TOTAL DEMAND IN 2010 AT CONSTANT REAL PRICES OUTLOOK The medium-term outlook for global demand for food fish is largely determined by population growth, changes in per caput income and the pace of urbanization. The interplay of these factors was considered in a review prepared by FAO for the 1995 Kyoto Conference on the Sustainable Contribution of Fisheries to Food Security. The review gave a conservative estimate of demand for food fish in the year 2010 (at 1990 constant real prices) in the range of 110 to 120 million tonnes (live weight), compared with 75 to 80 million tonnes in 1994/95. This estimate is based on per caput demand projections by country. It is expected that demand for, and supply of, fish for reduction will remain stable at between 30 and 33 million tonnes over the next few years. (It is realized that the demand for fishmeal is complex, and this projection is made in the absence of detailed studies.) In summary, projected demand for fish for all uses is in the order of 140 to 150 million tonnes for 2010. Over the past few years, governments have taken action to deal with capture fisheries matters, both separately and in concert. This is a promising trend for future supplies. FAO estimates that the world’s potential harvest through capture fisheries is between about 85 to 90 million tonnes with current fishing regimes1 (i.e. with some fish stocks overfished and some underexploited, and regardless of any increased supplies from a reduction in discarding) and 100 to 105 million tonnes if management systems for capture fisheries are improved in all oceans and with some positive reduction in discarding. 1 Inland fisheries contribute about 6 million tonnes annually, and during the period from 1986 to 1994 marine capture fisheries fluctuated between 80 and 85 million tonnes. There is considerable potential for further expansion of aquaculture. It has been estimated that under favourable conditions production (not including aquatic plants) could be 39 million tonnes by 2010. Total supplies for human consumption (calculated by deducting fish to be used for reduction from total fish supplies) under the best of circumstances may reach 114 million tonnes in 2010; if circumstances are less favourable this figure could be significantly lower, at 74 million tonnes. Therefore, only under the optimistic scenario will supply meet demand (at 1990 constant real prices) in the year 2010. REGIONAL REVIEWS NORTH AMERICA With a total production of 7.1 million tonnes in 1994, North America contributed about 6 percent of global fish catch. Future seafood demand in North America will probably be stimulated by the growing perception of fish as healthy food and inhibited by sanitary and environmental concerns. In aggregate, it is difficult to quantify the exact impact of the different issues upon consumption patterns. Nevertheless, it is expected that demand for fish and fishery products will increase. A further shift to higher-value seafood could also be expected. The marine capture fisheries of the region have practically reached a plateau of production where most commercial fish stocks are fully fished or overexploited. LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN In 1994 fish production in Latin America and the Caribbean reached a record level of 24 million tonnes, representing 22 percent of the world total. Small pelagic marine fish make up about 75 percent of the total catch. Fish consumption has been increasing gradually over the past 20 years and will probably continue to increase in the future. With population and economic growth taken into account, it is estimated that demand will increase by about 2 to 3 million tonnes by the year 2010. Increased supplies could come from the reduction of discards and post-harvest losses. Greater utilization of small pelagic fish for direct human consumption could be another key issue for the region. Fish production in the region will continue to fluctuate according to the variability in abundance of small pelagic stocks. Export-oriented industrial aquaculture has expanded significantly in the region and still has moderate growth potential. Other types of aquaculture such as pond-based fisheries in reservoirs, freshwater fish culture and culture of molluscs and aquatic plants have all grown less than expected. Given the strong influence of international demand in terms of volume and unit value, and the orientation of the regional export industry towards foreign markets, the value offish exports is likely to continue to grow. EUROPE Fish production is important to many countries in the region (which includes the Russian Federation), in particular as a foreign exchange generator in the countries in transition and as a source of employment in coastal communities. The region is a net importer, both in value and volume. Demand for fish is likely to increase in the future, given the positive perception of fish as a food item in the western part of the region and the recovery of previous consumption levels in the east. Fish production in the transition countries, in particular the Russian Federation, should stop declining soon and start to recover slowly. Future fishing prospects for the industrialized countries depend mainly on the effectiveness of fisheries management in the Northeast Atlantic. Elimination of over capacity and amore direct control of fishing efforts could be among the components of a scheme for improved management. In order to meet future demand, the region as a whole will continue to be a net importer of fish.