NASA/CR--1998-207408 Technology Directions for the 21st Century Volume IV Giles Crimi, Henry Verheggen, Robert Botta, Heywood Paul, and Xuyen Vuong Science Applications International Corporation, McLean, Virginia Prepared under Contract NAS3-26565 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lewis Research Center May 1998 PREFACE In this rapidly changing world, effective governmental organizations must constantly anticipate and regularly plan for the future. For NASA, the process of doing this has become particularly challenging. Global economic strategies have greatly increased the need for cooperative partnerships to provide adequate resources for space science and exploration programs. Today's technological advances provide ample opportunities to improve the ways in which NASA carries out its responsibilities and serves its customers. NASA's future technology emphasis must focus on dual-use activities; that is, technology must be transferred or leveraged with other government agencies, industrial partners, international counterparts, and academia to share costs, exchange technical knowledge, support a growing economy, and provide technological leadership for our Nation. The competitiveness of commercial ventures, such as those ignited by the deregulation of the telephone industry, has shifted the burden of continuously developing cutting-edge technology from government to the commercial sector. This is the fourth volume of a series of technology trends and applications reports. These reports focus on the continuing effort to predict and understand technology trends to better plan research and development strategies. The objectives of this series of documents are to: (1) validate, revise or expand relevant technology forecasts; (2) develop applications strategies to incorporate new technologies into our programs; and, (3) accomplish Agency goals while stimulating and encouraging development of commercial technology sources. In fact, this report provides a focal point for the previous three volumes of Technology Directions for the 21 st Century_. The first three chapters of this volume continue the theme of identifying the trends of some selected advanced technologies. The final chapter, however, identifies how advanced technologies have critical application to future satellite communications systems. Here the bridge is completed from evaluating technology trends for improved processing performance, storage and optical techniques to specific systems' applications of advanced technologies. The data and information herein are current as of December 1997. For terrestrial networks, new technologies continue to support the ever increasing demand for bandwidth. In addition, a shift from private to public networks is underway as public networks achieve higher levels of availability and reliability, and offer a flexible menu of services. As for satellite communications, there are today over $18B in investments for low Earth orbiting data and voice communications systems. In general, the distinctions among long- and short-haul carriers, telephone and cable operators, wireless and wired networks, data and video are becoming increasingly blurred. Private investments in communications infrastructure now significantly exceeds the budget for communications investments in agencies the size of NASA. With a market of over three billion people on this planet without current access to a telephone, revenues for satellite services worldwide are expected to grow to more than $37 billion per year by the year 2000. There are currently 55 distinct plans identified from North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa involving the launch of nearly 1,300 Ka band satellite networks for the next generation of communications satellite systems. It is clearlyincumbentuponNASA to positiontheAgencyto takefull advantageof availabletechnologyand to usetrends and projectiondatafor the purposesof planning, building, operating and sustaining information handling systems. To maintain technologicalleadership,wemustknowwheretechnologyis going,whereour technology standswith respectto the rest of the world, and how best to capitalizeon areasof maximum leveragewith theinvestmentsof our commercialandacademicpartners.It is within thiscontextthatthis report hasbeenprepared,aspartof anon-goingeffort to plan for thefutureof spacecommunicationsandinformationsystems. Commentsfrom interestedpartieswould be especiallyappreciated,andmay be directedto Dr. Albert R. Miller, Office of theDeputyUnderSecretaryof Defense(Space Integration),at (703) 325-3279,or to Ms. Denise S. Ponchak,NASA Lewis Research Center, at (216) 433-3465. Denise S. Ponchak Chief, Project Development and Integration Space Communications Office NASA, Lewis Research Center ii ACKNOWLEDGMENT This work was performed by Science Applications Intemational Corporation (SAIC), Software and Systems Integration Group, in McLean, Virginia for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). This report summarizes a series of investigations of various technologies and systems which are important to NASA's long range planning for operational communications systems and capabilities. NASA is pleased to acknowledge the following SAIC personnel who contributed to this effort: Dr. Giles Crimi (Program Manager); for Chapter 1, Mr. Henry Verheggen (Principal Investigator); for Chapters 2 and 3, Dr. Robert Botta (Principal Investigator); for Chapter 4, Messers. Henry Verheggen and Heywood Paul, and Dr. Xuyen Vuong (Principal Investigators). The technical direction for this work was provided by Ms. Denise S. Ponchak, NASA Lewis Research Center, and Dr. Albert R. Miller, Office of the Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Space Integration). 111 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ....................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGMENT ............................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... vii CHAPTER 1. DATA COMPRESSION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 1-1 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 1-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .............................................. 1-1 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS .............................................................................. 1-1 2.2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ............................................................................ 1-6 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ...................................................................... 1-7 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 1-9 3.1 IMPACT OF COMPRESSION TECHNOLOGY ON NASA .............................. 1-9 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP .......................................................................... 1-10 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................. 1-10 CHAPTER 2. LOW POWER ELECTRONICS TECHNOLOGY TRENDS SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 2-1 1. INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 2-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .............................................. 2-2 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS .............................................................................. 2-2 2.2 FLrILq_ APPLICATIONS ............................................................................ 2-6 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ...................................................................... 2-8 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 2-18 3.1 IMPACT ON NASA .................................................................................... 2-18 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP .......................................................................... 2-18 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................. 2-19 iv TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) CHAPTER 3. TRENDS IN NANOTECHNOLOGY SUMMARY ............................................................................................................. 3-1 lo INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................... 3-1 2. LONG-RANGE TECHNOLOGY TRENDS .............................................. 3-3 2.1 ANALYSIS OF TRENDS .............................................................................. 3-3 2.2 FUTURE APPLICATIONS ............................................................................ 3-7 2.3 EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES ...................................................................... 3-10 3. RESULTS ......................................................................................................... 3-16 3.1 IMPACT ON NASA .................................................................................... 3-16 3.2 TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP .......................................................................... 3-17 3.3 FEASIBILITY AND RISK ............................................................................. 3-18